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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

06-21-2016 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
But it's not really about the economy. The thing that has made me think you people still in the UK should vote for Brexit is (somewhat ironically) living in Slovakia, and learning what quality of life is actually about, and it's not about the things that people on either side in the Westminister bubble part of the campaign are talking about.
Care to explain?
06-21-2016 , 01:06 PM
Yes the way for the UK to learn more about European art of living is obviously to isolate ourselves from them and become more xenophobic and nationalistic.
06-21-2016 , 01:22 PM
Beckham says to stay. I want to know Peter Crouch thinks.
06-21-2016 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsfan09
Care to explain?
That it isn't about "growing the economy" which is meaningless concept anyway.

Mostly the benefits of having a low population density and stable population numbers and shared culture. There is a place in society for everyone and people treat each other with respect. Plenty of unused land, very low crime, space in school for my kids in a class where everyone has the same first language and who will still be there in 5 years time. Where my wife gets 6 years maternity leave (2 kids x 3 years) before getting her old job back and places for the kids in kindergarten because a society that doesn't solve its problems with an immigration treadmill has to put families and children first and make that possible (there is also a huge difference in terms of ante-natal care between Slovakia and the UK), affordable housing.

I said that it's not about money, but it's worth pointing out that a lot of what I describe above are currently available in the UK to the very richest, just by solving a series of problems with money (particularly buying property in the right places, self-funding maternity leave, paying for private medical care etc.). The question is how to deliver those valued things to the rest of the population - a lot of what I write seemed achievable to the post-war generation.

A lot of that could be implemented in the UK too even as a member of the EU (after all, Slovakia is a member), but migration can't be controlled and that's a big part of the instability and a driver for population density increase.

Even after Brexit you still have a long way to go. So let's say in this new spirit of independence and self-sufficiency you decide to stop free-rolling off poor countries' education systems and open enough places on courses to train the doctors and nurses required by and from your own population. It would take years for any significant number of these graduates to start filling places required so as to remove the need to keep bringing new immigrants. The NHS will still need Polish and Indian doctors for years and years after Brexit, even if it suddenly becomes a political priority to train your own population for the skilled jobs and pay them properly for the unskilled jobs - and with the current politicians on both sides of the debate that looks unlikely.

Brexit just means you take back control, you still have to then argue for the vision of Britain you want, but the government has a free hand to implement it for you and can no longer make excuses.

And btw I'm not saying Slovakia is better overall, particularly for the lowest paid, just the experience of swapping a middle-class life in the UK for one in Slovakia makes one think pretty differently to the talking heads on TV.

Last edited by LektorAJ; 06-21-2016 at 02:18 PM.
06-21-2016 , 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
But it's not really about the economy. The thing that has made me think you people still in the UK should vote for Brexit is (somewhat ironically) living in Slovakia, and learning what quality of life is actually about, and it's not about the things that people on either side in the Westminister bubble part of the campaign are talking about.
I agree that the main argument here should be about quality of life and culture.

I don't know how old you are, but if you can remember the UK and even London before people started travelling frequently to the continent you'll know that the quality of night life, cafe culture and food here has risen beyond belief here, and a major reason for this is because people, having sample the continental life style, simply weren't satisfied any more with the substandard fare and limited opening hours of the UK.

We have Europe and the EU (indirectly) to thank for the UK not still serving stale sandwiches as an excuse for food and being basically shut after 11pm and half of Sunday.

The clear message is that European influences have hugely improved the UK, and if we leave the EU then slowly but surely we will stop changing and improving culturally, and will not reap the benefits that happen when cultures mix.

Last edited by jalfrezi; 06-21-2016 at 02:34 PM.
06-21-2016 , 02:47 PM
Pretty interesting how the political polls and gambling odds are so extremely different, when in doubt trust the gambling world imo, can't see how leave is actually going to happen.

Would be great if leave lost by 0.1% even though reform is probably nothing more then a dream but at least its a start. Meanwhile 48% of Dutch people would vote in favor of a Nexit vs. 45% in favor of remaining, the EU has got some serious issue's pilling up.
06-21-2016 , 03:31 PM
Sky News is pretending that the boss of Aston Martin said an EU exit would be good for British exports. But, even in their own report (perhaps they assume their audience is too stupid to read past the headline), what Andy Palmer actually said was that an exit would cause an economic slowdown and a loss of growth in GDP, but in Aston Martin's case this might be 'offset in part' by the fall in the pound (and Soros is predicting 20%), making Astons cheaper for overseas buyers.

http://news.sky.com/story/1714826/00...-boost-exports

Dear me, the Leavers are a desperate bunch.
06-21-2016 , 03:39 PM
I wish you all listened to Soros when he was preaching on the Greece topic instead of cherry picking his current preach just because its good for the here and now.
06-21-2016 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCUERVO
Beckham says to stay. I want to know Peter Crouch thinks.
Counterpoint: John Cleese says to BREXIT

chessmate libtards
06-21-2016 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yakmelk
I wish you all listened to Soros when he was preaching on the Greece topic instead of cherry picking his current preach just because its good for the here and now.
What makes you think people didn't?
06-21-2016 , 04:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
What makes you think people didn't?
Greece is still in a knee deep ****ed up situation AND part of the Euro so something tells me they took his advice with a grain of salt. I'm not in favor of Soros FWIW, he's just interested in making a buck.
06-21-2016 , 06:32 PM


:O
06-21-2016 , 06:37 PM
NYT article about the Brexit debate through the lens of a mother and daughter's argument, worth reading just for the hilarious quotes from the mom (who crossed "British" off her passport and replaced it with "English") about why the UK needs to leave
06-22-2016 , 12:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
NYT article about the Brexit debate through the lens of a mother and daughter's argument, worth reading just for the hilarious quotes from the mom (who crossed "British" off her passport and replaced it with "English") about why the UK needs to leave
It took her 8 months to find work as a barista and she is worried leaving will make it hard for young people to gain employment

You couldn't make it up
06-22-2016 , 01:36 AM
Ruth Davidson was outstanding last night. Well worth a punt as next Conservative leader at 33-1.
06-22-2016 , 02:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
That it isn't about "growing the economy" which is meaningless concept anyway.

Mostly the benefits of having a low population density and stable population numbers and shared culture. There is a place in society for everyone and people treat each other with respect. Plenty of unused land, very low crime, space in school for my kids in a class where everyone has the same first language and who will still be there in 5 years time. Where my wife gets 6 years maternity leave (2 kids x 3 years) before getting her old job back and places for the kids in kindergarten because a society that doesn't solve its problems with an immigration treadmill has to put families and children first and make that possible (there is also a huge difference in terms of ante-natal care between Slovakia and the UK), affordable housing.
....
Well but do you know how Slowakia could achieve that? First of all Slowakia is still member of the EU and part of the Euro. So that can't be the problem then.

Slowakia's main industry is cars. Lots of firms relocated some of their production to Slowakia. Part of the reasons are cheap labour and low taxes. So in the end you got the jobs that people in other countries lost.

It always depends on governments and I dont think that UKIP and a Brexit will change that. People are arguing about more spending into NHS and other stuff but did they even read UKIP's goals. They sound a lot like the Republicans. Even after a Brexit it would still be the Torries at the top and do people think they will change their politics? They just have the wrong priorities and a Brexit wont change that.

What will people do if all their enemies run out? First you leave the EU but still nothing has changed? Well you still have immigrants but you can get rid of a lot of them once they are unemployed and in the UK for less than 5 years. And after that?
06-22-2016 , 03:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by S.K
It took her 8 months to find work as a barista and she is worried leaving will make it hard for young people to gain employment

You couldn't make it up
Several studies have found that immigration has little effect in either increasing native unemployment or depressing wages. There is admittedly a negative effect on low-skilled workers, but it's small.
06-22-2016 , 04:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsfan09
Well but do you know how Slowakia could achieve that? First of all Slowakia is still member of the EU and part of the Euro. So that can't be the problem then.

Slowakia's main industry is cars. Lots of firms relocated some of their production to Slowakia. Part of the reasons are cheap labour and low taxes. So in the end you got the jobs that people in other countries lost.
No, they had the things I listed before the car factories and before the EU - though as you point out it's possible to do them in the EU too if you aren't attractive to EU migrants and are not willing to except migrants from outside the EU (only 9 asylum cases granted last year). Britain had a lot of those things in the past too. Being in the free-trade area is good for Slovakia, which has 5 million people and is landlocked, anyway.

The real point though is that the things I listed - and also free university education which I didn't mention - are the result of the elites having to invest in their own people instead of just replacing them with new people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsfan09
It always depends on governments and I dont think that UKIP and a Brexit will change that. People are arguing about more spending into NHS and other stuff but did they even read UKIP's goals. They sound a lot like the Republicans. Even after a Brexit it would still be the Torries at the top and do people think they will change their politics? They just have the wrong priorities and a Brexit wont change that.
Mostly agree with the second paragraph. You still have to elect a government that puts you first. As for UKIP they are finished if Brexit happens. Farage has been out of his depth in the debates, but UKIP will get stronger if Brexit doesn't happen - a la SNP in Scotland. Brexit is just taking control, you still have to use the control. I concede that the EU has been blamed unfairly for one or two things in this debate but Brexit puts a stop to that and makes the government accountable for what happens.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Ruth Davidson was outstanding last night. Well worth a punt as next Conservative leader at 33-1.
I mostly agree. She was like a standard Scottish university debater. Britain used to be run by the Oxford Union Society, now it's run by the Oxford Bullingdon Club and in that context she looks outstanding. I liked how after the last question was asked the others on her team were doing a huddle with her while she told them what to say

The main reason I wouldn't back her as next leader is that I'm expecting a Tory leadership contest in this parliament so she can't be a candidate as she's not an MP.

Longer term it depends what Scotland does about independence. Some of the likely results (anything where there is a majority in England itself to vote leave) make Scotland leaving and subsequently joining the EU less attractive, because with England+ out the EU border would run between England and Scotland.

If Scotland stays she's a good bet for next leader but one.

Also the Next Tory leader market on Betfair is pretty mad. Louise Mensch was still available to lay at 80-1 after she'd already resigned her seat and moved to New York.
06-22-2016 , 05:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rooksx
Several studies have found that immigration has little effect in either increasing native unemployment or depressing wages. There is admittedly a negative effect on low-skilled workers, but sod them.
FYP.
06-22-2016 , 05:38 AM
So after having had his quotes"economic" argument deconstructed as utter bollox Lektor is now suggesting we vote leave to preserve the cultural purity of the UK.

Its interesting how there has been a phenomenon of meh not gonna vote but going to go really hard into bat for leave and here are some arguments I prepared earlier itt.

Lektor and cityguy are basically a perfect analogue of each other.
06-22-2016 , 05:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
FYP.
Oh please, the one authority you have cited in this thread is a hard core Thatcherite.

Amazing how many free market privatise it all and let them eat cake members of the political establishment and tried to paint themselves as NHS loving unskilled worker loving quasi socialists in this debate.
06-22-2016 , 06:06 AM
Immigration adds from EU about 170K into a workforce of 32 Million, as we have seen the average level of education of these immigrants will be better than that of indigenous population.

As a comparison teenagers add about 750K workers to the workforce.

Its hard to see how this is putting any real pressure on low skilled work for "natives."
06-22-2016 , 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
So after having had his quotes"economic" argument deconstructed as utter bollox Lektor is now suggesting we vote leave to preserve the cultural purity of the UK.

Its interesting how there has been a phenomenon of meh not gonna vote but going to go really hard into bat for leave and here are some arguments I prepared earlier itt.

Lektor and cityguy are basically a perfect analogue of each other.
No, you lost the economic argument. Playing dumb and pretending you don't understand the other side doesn't mean you win by default. It just means you know you're wrong yourself.

Cultures aren't pure or impure. I always make the point to Slovaks that, for example, wearing a white dress at a weddings didn't originate in Slovakia and spread from there to the rest of the world; when it was first done it was just as foreign as McDonald's seems now - one can imagine the mutterings from the olds at those first white weddings. Football was at one time just as foreign as cricket. The point is that a society needs to have some kinds of shared culture otherwise there is no reason to care any more about your neighbour than someone thousands of miles away. Misrepresenting the other side doesn't mean you win by default. It just means you know you're wrong yourself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
We have Europe and the EU (indirectly) to thank for the UK not still serving stale sandwiches as an excuse for food and being basically shut after 11pm and half of Sunday.
People still travelled to Europe before the single market so I wouldn't associate this with the EU at all really, you just had to paint your headlights yellow and set off on your adventure It's also partly down to developing disposable income and developing tastes over the times.

I do agree a lot has changed. I'm probably not as old as you but I remember in 2000 going to a cafe in Durham City where the conversation went
Student working in the cafe: ... and what kind of coffee would you like?
Australian: Could I have a short Macchiato?
Student: (stunned)
Me: Er, I think she means black or white.
06-22-2016 , 06:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
No, you lost the economic argument. Playing dumb and pretending you don't understand the other side doesn't mean you win by default. It just means you know you're wrong yourself.
This is pure fantasy. Playing dumb..yea sure, just keep clicking buttons.

I asked you to clarify a certain aspect of your argument because it was so nonsensical I had to make sure you were actually arguing it.

I then asked you to explain further elements of your argument that you presented as de facto when they are anything but and you utterly ignored that request, at which point it seemed clear you had no reply.

I will give you another chance:

Quote:
I am interested in your explanation on how market forces magically balance the currency with the price differential gained from having no tariff, but its moot anyway because obviously if we steal all of Europe's trade (lol) the last thing we will have is a weak currency.

Also we wont just have asymmetrical tariffs with Europe, we will have them with everyone, again this makes UK super vulnerable to offshoring, make the thing in China dont pay monies to import to China, dont pay monies to import to UK, make in UK pay monies to import to China. Its ok though, having no tariffs will magically balance the currency against any country we might export to, crazy talk.

If we leave the EU and as is looking likely, the pound devalues more than the price differential gained from having no tariff (which probably wont happen anyway), obviously inputs to industry go up as the weaker the currency the more our imports cost rise.
You keep saying "market forces " will do X and do Y, but never get close to elucidating how they will do X or Y. I suspect you dont know.
06-22-2016 , 06:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Immigration adds from EU about 170K into a workforce of 32 Million, as we have seen the average level of education of these immigrants will be better than that of indigenous population.

As a comparison teenagers add about 750K workers to the workforce.

Its hard to see how this is putting any real pressure on low skilled work for "natives."
Well maybe we should get rid of teenagers then.

Again this is a misrepresentation out of desperation. The net change in teenagers is close to zero as there are as many people becoming 20 as there are becoming 16 - maybe the more relevant net change would be to compare teenagers with retiring people - anyway that's the normal demographic progression of a country - young people replace the older ones. Whatever, you are using, you still have to use some net figure.

The 170K is a net figure, its the annual imbalance - meaning 14K per month, 170K per year, or 2 million per decade of extra workers at that rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
You keep saying "market forces " will do X and do Y, but never get close to elucidating how they will do X or Y. I suspect you dont know.
Not X and Y. Just (under certain scenarios) reduce the currency to a level that balances imports and exports. In past times it was based on supply and demand for the currency, now the financial markets anticipate this by trading the currency to lower levels - as you point out, the value of the pound is currently correlated with the probability of Brexit.

      
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