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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

06-26-2016 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
What are the locals like though?

A friend's daughter went there, got into trouble and needed help and found everyone's doors were slammed in her face once they heard her pommy accent.
Pommyless bastards!

06-26-2016 , 11:26 AM
i think people are kidding themselves btw. the uk will start negotiating within a year. they'll be going out within 3 years on not very good conditions. years from now that'll turn into a normal, standard trade agreement without common market membership or anything really special.

the only thing that can stop it is another referendum a couple of years from now on the finished exit-agreement, but even that seems unlikely.
06-26-2016 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Boris (or whoever is the next PM) is screwed either way, unless he (and others) can contrive (probably with the SNP) the scenario discussed here where an invocation of Article 50 is postponed long enough for changed circumstances to justify calling a second referendum (presumably next time with a 60% threshold stipulation as per Germany).
Looks like a good and fair idea. Britain would have needed that 60% stipulation from the beginning.

Did anybody think about how bad it would be with the different parts of the country voting on both sides of 50%? And then I'm not speaking about all the negatives of leaving, but having UK torn apart from the inside.

Last edited by plaaynde; 06-26-2016 at 11:51 AM.
06-26-2016 , 11:50 AM
We'll see how the EU position consolidates over the next week or so. Some leaders announced straight up that there will be no new negotiations before articles 50 is invoked. Some frustration with the UK has been showing through in these statements, and there appears little appetite to give them an easy out of the referendum by making any concessions.

In the scenario where the UK decides to stall and play obstructive to force better terms, there may be little leverage to force article 50 for the near future. But I guess that changes on March 1 when Lisbon takes full effect and the UK can no longer veto. If the UK still wants to leave by then, the remaining members can just announce that going forward they no longer feel obligated to seek UK consensus in EU matters. Then pass new financial regulation etc using QMV.
06-26-2016 , 11:51 AM
grunching from
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kukraprout
Can we get some predictions itt?
General election and/or second referendum with more options.

I'd much rather the vote had gone the other way but I enjoy general elections.
06-26-2016 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plexiq
We'll see how the EU position consolidates over the next week or so.
Yes. Tomorrow it's Monday and then hell breaks loose for real. Interesting week ahead.
06-26-2016 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plaaynde
Yes. Tomorrow it's Monday and then hell breaks loose for real. Interesting week ahead.
It could be really interesting
06-26-2016 , 12:02 PM
Who is PM for now?
06-26-2016 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
this has to be by far the dumbest talking point of this whole campaign. anyone repeating it deserves all the bad things that'll happen.
Please correct me then and let me know how persons from Asia and Africa can migrate to the UK on an equal basis to EU (mainly white) citizens. Thanks.
06-26-2016 , 12:08 PM
New game theoretical possibility.

Every time a nation votes for exit an offer is made to it to improve certain previous conditions for it as part of an attempt to prevent exit. The offer is made with some probability so it's not a given.

Then a new referendum to accept offer or proceed with exit is taken.

Only one country had every right to give EU the finger, exit and forfeit all loans instantly and this is Greece (whatever that meant so be it, instant crash probably better than selling off everything to outside interests and still being technically bankrupt and handcuffed for years to come unable to grow your economy as you want, eternally hostage to every 6 months evaluations and permanent economic uncertainty that allows nobody to come and invest in your country).

The moronic prime minister Tsipras though created a last min referendum exactly at the worse moment (one year ago to these days actually) so that the previous deal would expire and be no longer at the table when the "no" vote came. What a moron! He then negotiated far worse terms against the very will of the people that had voted no to better terms. LOL. It doesnt get better than that. Only in the real world!

If you want to bluff and force some honesty do it with plenty of clock time damn it! First of all you bargain claiming you will go to a referendum with the offer suggesting rejection of terms and an exit without improvement. Many ways to win exist now. You can win if a new offer is made to avoid the referendum. If no offer is made you can still win by having the referendum take place well in advance of the expiration of the old offer. If a yes comes you have the order of the people to accept the terms anyway so you are clean. If a no comes you have time left and a no vote in your pocket and further legitimacy to your rejections so a new improved deal may happen.

If you did that with enough time left you have still all the options available that way like that of getting a better deal before or after the referendum. If needed the voice of the people have been heard that something is wrong with EU. By not doing it at the last moment you avoid that way a close of your banks and also offering them the joy their own deal expiring and it being your fault, so they can offer worse terms now because you used the time for a referendum instead of more talks with the no vote in your pocket (plus your banks are closed and its total chaos in your belt).

So if this all works then accept the deal before or after a referendum. If it doesnt improve, accept the previous deal not letting it expire because there is still time at the table and resign in very short time ahead offering new elections because you went against the will of the people and signed (he did sign anyway against their will in another more forced sense). But of course this only happens with honorable people that dont mind losing so that their country can win. And who do not mind lying and bluffing their opponents but never their own people. The new government can start negotiating against what he signed if needed or move on with the deal signed. But we have politicians instead of sensible honorable people.

Last edited by masque de Z; 06-26-2016 at 12:14 PM.
06-26-2016 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kukraprout
Can we get some predictions itt?
- the uk will exit and get a normal trade deal (at some point) mostly on eu terms meaning the eu get to go after the city and services, but there'll be few barriers on goods.

- no common market membership because the uk cant accept free movement and eu regulation (the fee is less important).

- the eu will be very welcoming to scotland and offer quick membership despite what you hear about catalonia, but i have no idea how that'll end up.
06-26-2016 , 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vaJAZzled
Who is PM for now?
Cameron still, until after the Conservative Party conference in October.
06-26-2016 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vaJAZzled
Who is PM for now?
Still David (not Sklansky )
06-26-2016 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
- the uk will exit and get a normal trade deal (at some point) mostly on eu terms meaning the eu get to go after the city and services, but there'll be few barriers on goods.

- no common market membership because the uk cant accept free movement and eu regulation (the fee is less important).

- the eu will be very welcoming to scotland and offer quick membership despite what you hear about catalonia, but i have no idea how that'll end up.
People don´t know even what is the UE ( according to the google searches day after).
So it´s just announce to public that UK exit and don´t invoke art.50º, and all be fine. People will believe their not on the UE anymore.
06-26-2016 , 12:41 PM
Not even knowing how EU is spelt is pretty weak.
06-26-2016 , 12:48 PM
EU - europe /eurp. unian
UE - united europe

...
06-26-2016 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plaaynde
Think I came up with a method to void the referendum:

Because the UK is an union between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland it's fair to expect for all these parts of the union to agree if actively dramatically changing status quo. At least Scotland has undoubtedly clearly stated it wants to stay in the EU. Therefore any change can't happen at this point, the UK should remain in the EU and things evaluated and developed further.
Advert on Gumtree...........

"Small industrious northern European nation of 5.3million seeks new flatmates as current resident's behaviour has become unreasonable.

Current flatmate is prone to bouts of violence and rage. Recently made a mess of the accommodation before muttering something racist, blaming an Eastern European flatmate and then committing to b**gering off permanently. We now require a new, kinder, more tolerant flatmate to help with the rent.

Flat is pretty roomy. Nice views. Rent includes free university education and medicine. Occasionally leaky roof.

Sociable lot - regular drinks and late nights should be expected.

If you are interested, please contact Nic or Eck using the details below.

No sporty types, please."

06-26-2016 , 12:56 PM
What will amuse me the most when Scotland leaves the UK is all the whisky that will be lost for the Queen. And especially for her son.
06-26-2016 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KennyJPowers
Who want to work in a factory apart from brain dead uneducated mouth breathers
Moron
06-26-2016 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plaaynde
Not even knowing how EU is spelt is pretty weak.
06-26-2016 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smacc25
Advert on Gumtree...........

"Small industrious northern European nation of 5.3million seeks new flatmates as current resident's behaviour has become unreasonable.

Current flatmate is prone to bouts of violence and rage. Recently made a mess of the accommodation before muttering something racist, blaming an Eastern European flatmate and then committing to b**gering off permanently. We now require a new, kinder, more tolerant flatmate to help with the rent.

Flat is pretty roomy. Nice views. Rent includes free university education and medicine. Occasionally leaky roof.

Sociable lot - regular drinks and late nights should be expected.

If you are interested, please contact Nic or Eck using the details below.

No sporty types, please."

Advert neglected to say that "current flat mate is forcing his more interesting, better behaved mate downstairs to leave with him, which is a pity because he's ok and pays most of our bills. New flat mates will be expected to do the same"
06-26-2016 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethethe
Maybe UK is trying to be even more independent than Switzerland?
06-26-2016 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethethe
This is why Bush and Trump came out of nowhere and had a chance to win and did. It's an entire culture of confidence in not knowing or not carrying enough about things, proving a virtue. Underestimate the ability of masses to surprise the hell out of you with even worse choices than ever before at your own demise.

As Churchill used to say " You can count on America doing the right thing after first trying everything else."

Apparently this proves true also for EU, UK and Greece.

This proves even true for NASA and CERN. NASA lost a spaceship on Mars due to metric/American units specifications mixup. CERN LHC had to close down due to little animals on multiple occasions.

We need to make great errors before learning how to make even greater ones.
06-26-2016 , 01:27 PM
The Greeks should now ask for better terms else they'll refeyendum on grexit. Excellent barterpower time.
06-26-2016 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Boris's response to "winning" the referendum was uncharacteristically restrained because he knew he'd been out maneuvered by Cameron passing him the poisoned chalice of being the PM who has to invoke Article 50 (which was contrary to what Cameron had previously said he'd do) and plunge the UK into recession and bitter recrimination.

Boris (or whoever is the next PM) is screwed either way, unless he (and others) can contrive (probably with the SNP) the scenario discussed here where an invocation of Article 50 is postponed long enough for changed circumstances to justify calling a second referendum (presumably next time with a 60% threshold stipulation as per Germany).
I wouldn't say Boris' position is enviable, but Labour managing to self-implode means he has a plethora of options available to him. The most favourable obviously being the PM who kept us in the EU and put controls on immigration.

Ok a deal like this is probably going to come with a load of strings attached, but it's one he can easily sell to both sides of the argument without revealing, or anyone really caring, much about the small print.

As far as Article 50 goes, Boris can effectively wield this Sword of Damocles over pretty much everyone who has a stake in this argument, and i'd put my money on a GE in the next 12 months with this still hanging over the EU.

However if Cameron really wanted to **** everyone, he's just invoke it right now.

      
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