Public information is simply information available to the public. In the 25 years I've been studying such things I've never heard any alternative definition.

I think you've bought into fallacy that there is a treasure trove of inaccessible information out there that the powers that be control. Canvassing data is no more or less accurate than other polling data.

This has gone up to 0.49 since I posted about it. Obv my xpert analysis is getting picked up by the sharps and is moving the markets.

It sounds like what you're saying is that you're better at sifting through and analyzing publicly-available polling data, which gives you an edge.

Uh, no, read better?

Not particulary, I just understand how markets work better.

Many people are better at analyzing data and events than I am. When they try and bet politics they lose, because they don't understand that other people may have come to the same conclusions for whatever reason.

By implication you are saying that the house edge is good for the intelligent gambler. That is nonsenical.

The inefficiency created by a house edge may ameliorate it to some extent but it can't overturn it as a practical matter.

ChrisV listed a few reasons why PI markets are not efficiently priced. I added one more that he missed. I did not pass judgement on that reason, though you would have been correct if you noticed some disdain when I noted that it prevents the markets from having "sensible prices".

Stop inventing things I didn't post.

Remember that in Art of the Deal Trump refers to baseball as a "contemptible and vile pastime" populated with "filthy, lice-ridden" players and fans. I am assuming that punters are pricing that into the market.

I don't think you can price the fact that Trump has verbal diarrhoea into the market.

OK, so I shouldn't ever bet unless I have non-public information or unless I understand how markets work real good like. Got it.

Anyone else playing the Perdue and/or Acosta 3/31 markets?

Bet how you like. Just don't expect to win in the long term.

many thousands of each on the NO

I was all in Perdue No but sold a chunk last week. Smaller Hugler Yes. Probably going to reup Perdue before hearing today.

What about Georgia special election have you wandered into that one yet? The Moody price has just consistently been WTF?

And I can't really understand why Perdue is trading so much higher than Acosta. It seems like Perdue has quite a bit more baggage and 1 day later hearing.

Can you explain why the analogy to Trump is flawed? For someone who isn't familiar with French politics. I also have little clue how French elections work. What is the significance of this "first round" and "second round" voting?

I'm not an expert on French politics either, but top 2 vote getters advance from round 1. It looks likely Macron and LePen. Then it's just straight popular vote between those 2 in round 2.

The biggest reasons it's flawed, as I see it...

1. Straight popular vote. Remember Trump lost by 3M votes. No dumbass electoral college to complicate things.

2. Polling. Trump was polling -3 to -4 at the end. Le Pen is polling -20+ in the second round right now.

3. Trump is really unpopular right now, both in the US and globally. He is probably hurting the right wing crazies in Europe, not helping.

First round and second round works like this:

First round, lots of candidates (they need a certain number of other politicians to nominate them but it's not an especially high bar). Anyone who gets 50% or more is president.

Second round - if no one gets 50% in the first round then the top two candidates go through to a "heads up" second round a couple of weeks later - the idea being you have a straight fight for the president with no vote splitting effects.

Currently Le Pen and Macron are polling about 26-27% each for the 1st round, and in a head-to-head Macron wins about 63-37.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

If there is a parallel with Trump then you equally make a case for it being independent candidate Macron rather than Le Pen - woman from a family whose family business is politics (sounds like someone we know?) - though its obviously the Le Pens are much less establishment and I don't think there is a parallel in either direction.

Yeah that's an important point. Trump bucking a few % points could just be standard error.

I don't recall of any single case where the polls were 20 points out. The 2015 UK election was probably the closest comparison where they were out by about 12. That would give me some hope if I were in the Le Pen camp.

Bernie won Michigan polling 20 pts down, so strange things happen. But I am not sure the level to which Michigan was polled compared to France and how polling methods compare. Probably apples and oranges there.

GBV, I wasn't intending to propose a binary outcome strategy. Here is what I would be willing to do. If you will agree to pay me 200% of any profits I make on new investments on PredictIt (after vig, of course), I will agree to pay you 200% of any losses. You can pick the time period for the wager, up to one year. We would need to escrow, of course, as we don't know each other, but I'm sure we could find someone.

I'm sure many others would make the same bet with you.

French polls are notoriously good quality. We don't do subset of states so it is much easier to poll. Short on lepen is the way to go imo.

Insane profits the past couple of days with the AHCA meltdown, had a boatload of No Vote shares for today!

Can't wait for the next big piece of legislation

That was a very juicy market with very large swings on almost no real information.

In favor of passing or against?

i went all-in on it not passing two days in a row

and bet on "No Vote" on the bill in the number of votes market for Friday (which got as low as ~10%, and ultimately won)