Seems like an okay bet on the odds, not the greatest of bets given the 4 year wait

This is true but I don't need to hold for 4 years if something better comes along - it's one where (assuming it wins) the odds will glide down towards 1.00 over the term of office and I can exit with a profit e.g. 2 years in.

I hear your point though. I thought Trump was good value to win the 2020 election when he was at odds of 3.25 back in November. I didn't take that one because of the long timescale and the possibility of having to hold full term.

2 years is still a hell of a long time. That adds considerably to the effective vig.There are better things to do with your money if you are a skilled advantage player.

My guess is that the chance of Trump being got rid of is quite high: it is one thing to be loathed by the left, quite another to piss off every power-broker in the Republican party, insult their wives etc. They will be after the guys blood.

Additionally the chance of an assasination is quite high. ISIS know all their dreams come true if they kill him. Their is no way to protect him in all circumstances. Plus there is a non-trivial chance of a neo-fascist organization killing him (all their dreams also come true if they kill him for different reasons).

I made about $275 in that tweet market, I haven't even dipped my toes in the new one yet. So much uncertainty with how taking office might curb his tweeting habits, and a couple of times I have popped and I haven't seen any prices that jumped out at me. I'll definitely be splashing around once we get three days out or so I'm sure.

I post on the comment boards as Matt, and have a Jaguars avatar. I saw your screenshot in Secretary of State, nice work! I wish I had bought more Shannon, I had a little over 2000 shares at six cents though so not too shabby! I have sold off all but about 700, on the fence whether to ride those or flip to negative risk, I do think Tillerson will get confirmed in time but I'm not sure the price won't get below 70/30 again.

Edit: I don't see any new developments at the moment. But I suppose the price movement will hinge on what happens with the committee vote Monday. If he's voted down in committee I guess we'll see it go 60/40 or even further. I'm not sure I want to have money riding on Rubio having a sack though. Looks like I have a couple of days to mull it over unless he comes out for/against.

I am looking forward to the Trump approval polling markets, I think they will be a gold mine.

Bought 6000+ shares of B1 at prices ranging from 5-13. It went to the moon and cratered. Glad I took a lot of profit.

Just watched the innauguration.

Checked this forum afterwards (mainly the innauguration thread) and it's still just a liberal-biased echo chamber which parrots the opinions of the mainstream media and other left-wing news sources.

Assassination or assassination-related resignation voids the bet.

The "Yes" option is die through natural causes, be impeached or resign and/or similar.

The "No" option is make full term.

Though it would still suck if I had my money tied up for 3 years 6 months just about to collect then someone pops up and voids my bet.

But as compound interest its only 15%.

Not sure i really rate as an advantage politics gambler. If you were following the NVG election thread you may remember

I put almost my entire poker bankroll on Unibet (except what I had already used to buy into MTTs) on Clinton

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=446

To much hilarity after the results came out (wasn't that bad as I had her in states in the south-west that she won, but even so...)

So this is actually a market
Will Trump dance with Caitlyn Jenner at an inaugural ball?

Congrats to the guys who had the foresight to do this, I decided at the end of last market I'd hold off until after inauguration to see how things shook out. Needed a respite from having mobile notifications of the orange one's tweets, jfc that is a big downside.

Anyway, obviously loaded up bigly on B2-B7 yes and B8 NO while all this was happening. Also once it cratered I bought some B1 at 3c and flipped at 15c. Probably try to get out of B2 through B4 for slim profit and bank on B5-B7 when he starts tweeting again (and go for another B8 NO flip.) All in all, off to a good start.

Market has now been expired for 23 days with no resolution.

presented without comment

Amazing

You can still sell Patrick Kennedy!

domer did you hold those shannons? Pretty sweet payoff if so

I saw that screenshot in SoS, holy jeebus. No wonder neg risk was so easy in there.

I hedged a bit today betting on Tillerson yes, but yeah I still hold all of the Shannons atm

We'll see how it goes!

Crazy swings in Tillerson/Shannon market today. I bought No Tillerson @ 45 today, sold @ 71, now its back down in the 30s.

Amazing stuff man. I'd like to think I would have done similarly if I had more roll to work with, but I don't (yet.) Best of luck!

28 days. Now all the other markets relying on the FEC report (turnout, popular vote vs polling, etc) are starting to trade lower, presumably because people are starting to wonder if Trump will find a way to stop the FEC report until he can void a few million votes.

No 1.75 and assassination is push is an amazing bet. You would need Trump to willingly resign, or impeachment. Impeachment proceedings are political suicide for Rs. I would price this at 5-10%.

3.25 to win 2020 is also great. Imo it's way better than 50%, if it's a push when he doesn't run.

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That presidential pivot is coming any day now, right Al?

Yes, I thought about it a bit more. If you take an view of it like an actuary, then you'd compound it and assume the odds are going to go:
Now: 1.75 (i.e 1.15 to the power 4)
1y: 1.52 (i.e 1.15 cubed)
2y: 1.32 (1.15 squared)
3y: 1.15
4y: 1.00

I think though that if he gets through the first year ok then that 1.15 (i.e. odds of surviving any given year) multiplier will seem high and people's models for the whole thing will get recalibrated quite radically, maybe down to 1.05 per year - so I wouldn't be that surprised to see this trading at more like 1.2 next year.

Nice little flash crash on Sessions Yes last night. I scooped shares up all the way down to $0.78. He's still trading in upper 80s. I don't see how anything changed for that market but apparently people really wanted out asap when they saw the mess with acting AG.

The "Trump to leave by end of 1st Term" market on Betfair is now trading at
Yes 2.06 / 2.08 (i.e. +106)
No 1.92 / 1.93 (i.e. -108)

I've done a bit more on "No" at 1.90.

Predictit has Trump not president at end of 2017 at $0.22. Seems insane. But then a few more weeks like the last one and who knows.