Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
we've got 3 years and 11 months left, but it'll be very hard to top this for worst 2020 prediction post
Betfair seems to currently agree with them, giving her odds of about 1/13, though very low liquidity. Only people currently higher are possibly Pence (spread 11 - 1000) and Trump himself ( 1/2.45).
Warren seems like a reasonable possibility. Appeals to a lot of people angry about the current election but probably enough of a sellout not to piss off the establishment too much. Still definitely an underdog for the establishment to line up behind her though without somewhat of a shakeup in the Dem Party. Probably not a profitable bet but it's not crazy.
Other leading possibilities are Biden and Cory Booker. Biden is probably too old though. I'd probably give a slight edge to Booker over Warren because of age. Not an expert on his politics, but he seems like he'd be pretty much an attempt to repeat B. Obama (charismatic black man supported by the establishment who won't rock the boat). I don't think Michelle Obama is likely unless the Dems really want to maximize their diversity points (black AND a woman?!?) - which I wouldn't put past them tbh. (Edit: I may be underestimating this, particularly against Trump where many normal political considerations go out the window.) You've still got Sanders around, but like Biden, he'll be incredibly old.
Still a pretty high chance (maybe 50-60%) the Dem nominee will be none of those people. I'd guess very high chance the dem nominee will be either a minority or a woman though - they basically see that as free votes, and honestly they're probably right, even if it's only a few percent.
Last edited by CarbonIsTheNutLow; 12-21-2016 at 02:09 PM.