Betting on Elections thread - Page 8 - Politics and Economics

I hear PI works in incognito mode, try that.

Sort of jealous on nights like this, betfair just doesnt have the live action. Then again, having it break constantly would tilt me.

03-15-2016 , 09:16 PM

#179

beansroast01

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bernie looking good in IL (serious)

03-15-2016 , 09:19 PM

#180

iron81

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Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

I hear PI works in incognito mode, try that.

This worked, ty.

03-15-2016 , 09:27 PM

#181

ShippityDooDah

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 936

xpost from Sanders thread but Chicago is in early. 66% compared to 44% for the full state. It is coming in at 55/45, where Clinton was projected to win 60/40 (per benchmark) in a close loss for her. I think this is what imjosh is referencing. Dupage Bernies biggest county is still at 0% reporting.

03-15-2016 , 09:31 PM

#182

beansroast01

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ShippityDooDah

yep thats what im referring to. Combine that with the fact that a Kendall county was held open an hours late (pro Sanders county)

03-15-2016 , 09:36 PM

#183

beansroast01

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MO is shooting up. Idk if i have the courage to cash out on MO and re-invest in IL

03-15-2016 , 09:44 PM

#184

iron81

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I wouldn't count on Kendall helping Bern, it's small and I would think it was a Clinton area. Sold my Bern.IL stuff at 10%.

03-15-2016 , 09:48 PM

#185

beansroast01

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Well, my lock of the millennium (MO) looks like it's going to come in, but damn was it a sweat.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/sta...18409203392512

03-15-2016 , 10:04 PM

#186

adanthar

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Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 20,109

Cruz: won a bunch of states, has a conceivable path to beat Trump pre-convention, has essentially unified the establishment, and will have begged, borrowed or bribed every possible delegate if it goes multiple ballots. Currently trading at +600.

Kasich: won half a state and ran second in another state with 60% of the states done voting. Needs 112% of remaining delegates to clinch. Requires the party to nominate him over both the guy with the most delegates and the guy whose delegates will write the rules. Currently trading at +850.

lol markets

03-15-2016 , 10:09 PM

#187

beansroast01

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Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 20,494

I just cashed out a lot of my MO shares and put a ton on IL

2500 shares on IL.

Wish me luck.

03-15-2016 , 10:24 PM

#188

Nonfiction

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welp shoulda sold my sanders MO

03-15-2016 , 10:28 PM

#189

beansroast01

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i have no idea what is going on

03-15-2016 , 10:36 PM

#190

Nonfiction

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MO is flipping from like 70/30 hilary to 70/30 bern over and over its amazing to watch

03-15-2016 , 10:36 PM

#191

beansroast01

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i have a hunch of what is going on, and i am holding IL.

03-15-2016 , 10:38 PM

#192

adanthar

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Quote:

Originally Posted by imjosh

i have no idea what is going on

1)Michigan was an outlier caused by a black swan debate
2)Polls were pretty good except in IL, where there was massive crossover
3)The crossover turned out to mostly be wasted because nobody in America can strategic vote on the district level, I mean come on

Good effort but...this is what happens when you need to overcome 25 points in a week. Sometimes you come up short.

03-15-2016 , 10:45 PM

#193

adanthar

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Cruz just flipped MO, but nearly all of StL is still out so this could flip again

03-15-2016 , 10:58 PM

#194

ShippityDooDah

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 936

dupage not looking good

03-15-2016 , 11:10 PM

#195

Moneyline

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,287

Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

Cruz just flipped MO, but nearly all of StL is still out so this could flip again

Where did you get this info from? A 538 writer also just declared that Cruz has taken the lead in MO, but cnn, abc, and the MO Secretary of State all have Trump in the lead.

03-15-2016 , 11:12 PM

#196

beansroast01

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Guess i'm busto on predictit now. Won't know if i can cash out or not

03-15-2016 , 11:12 PM

#197

adanthar

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It happened for like 2 minutes and then promptly flipped back. As of now Trump has it locked unless CNN screwed up.

03-15-2016 , 11:48 PM

#198

microbet

Solar Powered

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 56,443

Bernie in MO was my biggest bet, so I'm not too bad off. I also had Kasich in OH and Trump in MO. I'm down like 15% overall.

03-16-2016 , 12:06 AM

#199

ShaneO19

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 233

Bernie still has a chance of not winning Missouri. The outstanding counties favor Hillary. I looked at her margins in those counties and figure Bernie would still win by maybe 1000-2000 votes. So fingers crossed that he holds on.