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Old 03-15-2016, 09:09 PM   #176
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

just yolod a ton of BS at 8-9c in IL
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:10 PM   #177
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

btw - my laptop cant access Predictit but my mobile can.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:15 PM   #178
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I hear PI works in incognito mode, try that.

Sort of jealous on nights like this, betfair just doesnt have the live action. Then again, having it break constantly would tilt me.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:16 PM   #179
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

bernie looking good in IL (serious)
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:19 PM   #180
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar View Post
I hear PI works in incognito mode, try that.
This worked, ty.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:27 PM   #181
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

xpost from Sanders thread but Chicago is in early. 66% compared to 44% for the full state. It is coming in at 55/45, where Clinton was projected to win 60/40 (per benchmark) in a close loss for her. I think this is what imjosh is referencing. Dupage Bernies biggest county is still at 0% reporting.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:31 PM   #182
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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xpost from Sanders thread but Chicago is in early. 66% compared to 44% for the full state. It is coming in at 55/45, where Clinton was projected to win 60/40 (per benchmark) in a close loss for her. I think this is what imjosh is referencing. Dupage Bernies biggest county is still at 0% reporting.
yep thats what im referring to. Combine that with the fact that a Kendall county was held open an hours late (pro Sanders county)
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:36 PM   #183
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

MO is shooting up. Idk if i have the courage to cash out on MO and re-invest in IL
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:44 PM   #184
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I wouldn't count on Kendall helping Bern, it's small and I would think it was a Clinton area. Sold my Bern.IL stuff at 10%.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:48 PM   #185
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Well, my lock of the millennium (MO) looks like it's going to come in, but damn was it a sweat.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/sta...18409203392512
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:04 PM   #186
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Cruz: won a bunch of states, has a conceivable path to beat Trump pre-convention, has essentially unified the establishment, and will have begged, borrowed or bribed every possible delegate if it goes multiple ballots. Currently trading at +600.

Kasich: won half a state and ran second in another state with 60% of the states done voting. Needs 112% of remaining delegates to clinch. Requires the party to nominate him over both the guy with the most delegates and the guy whose delegates will write the rules. Currently trading at +850.

lol markets
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:09 PM   #187
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I just cashed out a lot of my MO shares and put a ton on IL

2500 shares on IL.

Wish me luck.
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:24 PM   #188
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

welp shoulda sold my sanders MO
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:28 PM   #189
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

i have no idea what is going on
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:36 PM   #190
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

MO is flipping from like 70/30 hilary to 70/30 bern over and over its amazing to watch
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:36 PM   #191
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

i have a hunch of what is going on, and i am holding IL.
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:38 PM   #192
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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i have no idea what is going on
1)Michigan was an outlier caused by a black swan debate
2)Polls were pretty good except in IL, where there was massive crossover
3)The crossover turned out to mostly be wasted because nobody in America can strategic vote on the district level, I mean come on

Good effort but...this is what happens when you need to overcome 25 points in a week. Sometimes you come up short.
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:45 PM   #193
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Cruz just flipped MO, but nearly all of StL is still out so this could flip again
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:58 PM   #194
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

dupage not looking good
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Old 03-15-2016, 11:10 PM   #195
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Cruz just flipped MO, but nearly all of StL is still out so this could flip again
Where did you get this info from? A 538 writer also just declared that Cruz has taken the lead in MO, but cnn, abc, and the MO Secretary of State all have Trump in the lead.
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Old 03-15-2016, 11:12 PM   #196
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Guess i'm busto on predictit now. Won't know if i can cash out or not
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Old 03-15-2016, 11:12 PM   #197
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

It happened for like 2 minutes and then promptly flipped back. As of now Trump has it locked unless CNN screwed up.
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Old 03-15-2016, 11:48 PM   #198
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Bernie in MO was my biggest bet, so I'm not too bad off. I also had Kasich in OH and Trump in MO. I'm down like 15% overall.
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:06 AM   #199
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Bernie still has a chance of not winning Missouri. The outstanding counties favor Hillary. I looked at her margins in those counties and figure Bernie would still win by maybe 1000-2000 votes. So fingers crossed that he holds on.
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:15 AM   #200
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Sold my IL shares for pennies
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