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Old 03-15-2016, 12:44 PM   #151
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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I don't know anything about the cftc. If that's meaningful, then good. Non-prof doesn't mean anything imo. I've known too many people who have non-profs to have faith in that in and of itself.

I'd just like to see ONE person cash something out.
The CFTC is the same agency that regulates the trading of oil, gas, gold, silver, wheat, corn, swap markets, etc. There is no reason to believe that a company pre-approved by them is trying to run a fraud as they will surely end up ****ed if they do.
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Old 03-15-2016, 12:59 PM   #152
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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The CFTC is the same agency that regulates the trading of oil, gas, gold, silver, wheat, corn, swap markets, etc. There is no reason to believe that a company pre-approved by them is trying to run a fraud as they will surely end up ****ed if they do.
Intention fraud is one thing. A start-up being a cluster**** is another.
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Old 03-15-2016, 01:52 PM   #153
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Post from the NC page on PredictIt

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I've been phone banking for Hillary in Asheville and other parts of western NC and it's brutal... I've never seen anything like this. This is supposed to be a supporter list but I've had more people tell me they voted for Bernie already, than Hillary supporters. And that's not counting refusals.
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Old 03-15-2016, 01:57 PM   #154
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Asheville is super liberal/hippie, not terribly surprising. It's basically Vermont with sweet tea and biscuits.
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Old 03-15-2016, 02:05 PM   #155
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Interesting new data from Nate: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...upset-in-ohio/

I strongly disagree with Nate's predictions, especially on MO. But it sounds like he refitted his model, which has me a bit worried (only a bit). The price on MO is dropping. I want to say it's still a sure thing for Sanders. The google trends still have me convinced. If more people lose money on MO today because of Nate's prediction, it's going to be hilarious. If the market corrects to his model, MO price for Bernie drops to 35cents. I will be pulling out my credit card if it drops anywhere near that low

Last edited by imjosh; 03-15-2016 at 02:17 PM.
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Old 03-15-2016, 02:42 PM   #156
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

micro i have 5 figures in predictit now and i have not given it a single thought that i would not see my money, just not a realistic worry
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Old 03-15-2016, 03:23 PM   #157
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I bought Hillary in Missouri a couple hours ago at .33. Not because of Nate. Just think its a coin flip. Was hoping it would go lower, but it didn't look like it was.
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Old 03-15-2016, 03:48 PM   #158
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Except for the mortal lock that is Trump.FL, I think there's a lot of potential for chaos out there tonight and almost everyone is -EV.

To clarify...if you aren't looking at polls at all you're doing it wrong. If you're not looking at the enthusiasm gap and the massive crossover you're also doing it wrong. But the two combined make all the open primaries unpredictable, especially in IL which hasn't been polled post-rally shutdown.
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Old 03-15-2016, 06:19 PM   #159
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Last chance to buy Sanders in AZ, else you won't be able to get any value plays for the dem side for a month.
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Old 03-15-2016, 06:56 PM   #160
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

53% say trade takes away from jobs in Ohio
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Old 03-15-2016, 06:59 PM   #161
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

WBBM is the main news radio station in Chicago.

Kevin Friduss I WBBM ‏@KevinFriduss 10m10 minutes ago
Current Exit Poll: Sanders beating Clinton by 12%; Trump up on Rubio by 6% with Kasich starting to gain more... http://fb.me/5cW7U9TJV

For reasons I can't explain, I'm long Rubio in IL at 6%, with the current value at 1%. If we start getting returns with Rubio 5 down, I should be able to sell at a profit.
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:00 PM   #162
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Last chance to buy Sanders in AZ, else you won't be able to get any value plays for the dem side for a month.
What is your thesis? That Sanders is perpetually undervalued because he is only going to gain momentum throughout the process ?
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:03 PM   #163
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

the OH market is going crazy
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:04 PM   #164
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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What is your thesis? That Sanders is perpetually undervalued because he is only going to gain momentum throughout the process ?
i posted it earlier today itt, but yes that only makes his victory more likely to me
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:13 PM   #165
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Anyone know why Trump crashed/Cruz surged in MO in the last 15 minutes?
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:15 PM   #166
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Any chance Kasich chokes in OH? Cash out at $.89?
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:19 PM   #167
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Anyone know why Trump crashed/Cruz surged in MO in the last 15 minutes?
There's often exit poll swings before the results come out.
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:34 PM   #168
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Exit polls say Trump is behind in MO/OH, ahead in the other three / Clinton is tied in IL, behind in MO, ahead in OH
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:56 PM   #169
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

We're 3-4 election days into this thing and Predictit with their massive fees has still not figured out how to run a website! Costing me and them a lot of money!
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Old 03-15-2016, 08:07 PM   #170
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

RIP PredictIt. This site keeps growing and they aren't updating their servers to handle it.
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Old 03-15-2016, 08:14 PM   #171
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

There was a huge shift in the GT that I can't explain. It's like they were over-predicting by around 5% or more. Jeez.

At least it looks like I made my IL call right? https://mobile.twitter.com/dwbeard/s...93788332908545

Still, as a Sanders fan I am gutted today. He isn't even crushing MO, I don't understand it.
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Old 03-15-2016, 08:19 PM   #172
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Trying to get on Rubio dropping out, not happening.
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Old 03-15-2016, 08:20 PM   #173
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

some polls in IL are staying open an extra hour
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Old 03-15-2016, 08:38 PM   #174
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

bailed on Bern in OH and reinvested in IL
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Old 03-15-2016, 08:53 PM   #175
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I've had zero PredictIt access in the last 30-40 minutes, guess I'm letting it ride.
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