That's exactly my point, the movement of the betting odds means weakness from Clinton is by default being priced in more than it was. I'm arguing it's noise & a buying opportunity.

If you believe you made a profitable bet, and don't think anything has occurred to change that, it's still a profitable bet even if the market moves against you. You just have to wait for it to resolve. Though it's understandable that you may wish you got a better price.

If you believe you've made a profitable bet, and that events have occurred to change that, well, you just got unlucky. Same as betting on sports or poker.

I guess someone doesn't buy into the random walk hypothesis of market movements. You could make a lot of money in stocks if this is what you mean and your reasoning were correct.

Or do you mean you think the market had already priced in Hillary weakness, and moved again based on that same weakness? I don't think that's why the market moved. There were some bizarre movements over the last 24 hours, arbitrage bots appeared to be going pretty crazy at times, but seems to have stabilized for the moment (though that'll potentially change in the next 10 mins to 2 hours.)

Personally I'd say the market movement was most likely based on a combination of some favorable polls and just normal random market movement, though I'd agree that I don't think Trump's actual chance of winning increased 10% in the last 24 hours. Whether that means he was underpriced before or overpriced now is another matter.

Well, looks like this debate's going pretty well for Clinton. Trump started off all right, but think it went downhill ever since the stop and frisk part. Kind of rambling on and not making clear, succinct points.

Nothing big enough to fundamentally alter the election or completely tank a candidate, but definitely seems like a good result for Hillary supporters+bettors.

Good night for me, I maxed no on all of the debate mentions

Anyone know if any Vegas casinos taking action on the election with high-ish limits (10-30k bet)? Not having much luck with local bookies and being in Canada the online books are harder to access.

^I'm about 99% sure that you won't find vegas casinos offering betting on U.S. elections - my understanding is that it probably isn't legal for a U.S. based business, though I don't know which particular law it is.

Online betting tends to fall more into a legal grey area, and operators are typically located somewhere outside the U.S., even when offering services to U.S. gamblers.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Isn't Pinnacle Sports still in Canada? You can get down that much there.

Vegas casinos are a no go. There's been limp attempts to get political betting okayed in Nevada, to no effect.

Hello? Anybody home?

Tilted I lost NO on the most watched debate ever by like 1m.

Monday Night Football

Clinton pretty decent surge on the betting markets in the past week. Think I'd be a short Trump bettor though. Highly, highly likely he shows up to the 2nd debate mildly better prepared and delivers an objectively mediocre performance but all of his supporters are ginned up for TOTAL COMEBACK REALLY DESTROYED HILLARY WITH HIS STARTLING COMMAND OF THE FACT THAT BILL GOT A BLOWJOB FROM MONICA or whatever, and from there the media is going to want to really write that story this is a hot hot hot race, very competitive, Trump really stepped in there and made it a tie game whatever.

In short, just can't see how he doesn't exceed his 1st debate performance, the bar is so low now. His supporters will be excited. Media will play along. Anticipate that excitement is worth 1-2% in the national polling averages so that by 15-October, it's a tighter face than it is now.

Long term think Clinton -200, maybe -250 is probably the right price but would definitely bet Trump improves in the near to mid term.

nah

I agree with the first half of that, but the election itself is now very close to over. there are two wildcards and a possible Russian attack left to fade. if we do fade the Russians and the wildcards don't leave significant numbers of Dems less likely to vote for Hillary (this != MEDIA BLASTS TRUMP TIE) there's nothing left that gives him five points on EDay and much of the vote will already be in.

this race has always been much closer to wang's model than 538's. it's never gone below 65-70% or above 85%-90%. it's now on the high side of that. anyone who has money left to bet and can find a good price should do so, else chillax.

adanthar what's your politics/math background? why are you good at political markets/

no specific background aside from the typical poli sci major going to law school thing. the only things I do better than most people in the markets are looking at poll crosstabs and betting with my head.

the thing that makes the markets hugely beatable in 2016 compared to every other market is the limited sample size, single voting day, and reliance on outside events makes them a death trap for algorithm-based trading compared to stocks so you still have a significant portion of liquidity provided by random libertarians and people who just want a sweat. if that ever changes, moonwalk stage left

Do you work for Pokerstars?

3PT.DEBATE is still at 93% if y'all want some easy money.

Yes ikes, why do you ask

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/6...s-in-2016#data

This one is probably a better bet right ?

Yes. I pretty much assumed everyone already maxed that one months ago.

Shame.

'k

What is the maximum amount you are aloud to deposit on your PredictIt account? Is it up to your credit card limit? Do they accept any form of deposit other than credit card?

i checked my account this evening and for the first time i witnessed a positive balance on my account



#wedidit

i feel a little self satisfied that i doubled that bet with wil right when Hillary was literally dying..

welshing is grounds for a ban, right?

is Republican to win FL at 36c a good hedge for someone long Clinton?