Buy one share three months ago and never sell the last share

Or failing that, make Ctrl F5 your friend.

Trump basically needs to sweep PA, OH, FL and NC to narrowly win. Clinton is leading comfortably in PA and narrowly in the other 3. If Hillary wins one of these he needs a miracle.

According to befair's last matched odds.

PA: Hill -300, Trump +420
FL: Hill -170, Trump +215
OH: Hill -150, Trump +150
NC: Hill -140, Trump +140


And this is still before the debates where he will most likely lose bigly.

How is Hillary -230?

he doesnt need to win pennsylvania, he could win wisconsin instead.

Not a big market in Wisconsin last price matched though Trump +400.
However even if he wins it it probably won't be enough.



If we knew Trump would definitely lose just one out of PA, OH, FL, NC what would the correct odds be for Hillary? -10000?

Trump only losing 1 of those should help his odds.

Random variance from the debates should be beneficial to the candidate with a lower chance of winning.

In my view, there's a moderate chance for either candidate to have some type of implosion before the actual election, they both have tons of issues and scandals.

I would not be particularly surprised with either result. Looking at the polls alone, -230 would probably be reasonable odds.

There are obviously more complicated factors in play than just polls, but people's opinions tend to be very set so there's little reason in discussing them. Some people think a Hillary victory is pretty much a lock, others think it's only a matter of time before her scandals/health/lack of likable persona tank her campaign.

If you think the odds are wrong, you should bet on them. I mean, what other point in time would you bet? Unless you're looking for a pure gamble, you don't want to bet when you think the odds are correct.

Are you making the error of thinking these are independent events ?
Public sentiment moves together in all the states. So in the event Trump is ahead by 1 in FL, OH and NC, it can be assumed the race is much tighter in PA. -230 looks about right given the odds you posted above.

He might be, but his conclusion is still correct imo.

The -300 in PA assumes future movement in public sentiment as well. If you say, if Hillary wins PA it is all over, and she is -300 in PA, then she has to be at least -300 overall since there are other paths if she loses PA. The only way she can be less than -300 is if the assumption of "if Hillary wins PA it is all over" is wrong, or that the states *are* actually independent events. In other words, PA would move to the Rs at a slower rate than the national average moves to the Rs.

Well, there are other paths besides PA. Wisconsin was mentioned before.

Why odds of winning PA would differ from odds of winning general:
a.) chances of Hillary winning PA and losing general
b.) chances of Hillary losing PA and winning general

Odds are telling us that a is greater than b, but do people believe that?

Yeah this thread is pretty big and I haven't had a chance to read most of it. But whatever site you're gambling on, I am confident that Trump has been and still is a Buy.

I did quite well in 2008 by buying up a ton of McCain positions. And then "the billionaire/mystery man" came in and bought so much McCain that he went from .35 to .45 - instant profit. But McCain was just a legitimate buy at .35, even though I thought Obama was almost certain to win. On election night, Obama had come all the way down to the low .60's - I went all-in on him then. Obviously, I do not recommend betting more than 10% of your bankroll on any one position, though.

This time, I think Trump is almost certain to win.

I like this map. It is utterly preposterous that Nate tha' Great thinks Clinton will win NC. Yeah, Obama won it both times, but it was not the expected outcome in '08 at all. IIRC it was one of the closest states for 538.com; I forget which State they missed the prediction on, though. But yeah, I can totally see Obama winning NC in retrospect (I won't get into why), but I don't think Clinton has a chance in hell at it.

Agree. And I have nfc what Florida will do. Trying to predict what the average Floridian will do in any given situation is a fruitless endeavor. Usually they don't even know. The polls here will mean nothing to me. They're a true wild card - it's just what they are.

You don't seem to have a clue what you're talking about. Clinton absolutely has a shot to win North Carolina, way better than of Trump winning the election. It's had one of the best demographic shifts for Clinton since 2012. Large influx of young, minority and college educated white voters. I'm guessing you're still SHOCKED Rand Paul isn't the nominee.

lmao nice try, i don't vote and am not at all in shock about him or his father.

and hey buddy, that's fair enough - this is just random advice from someone who's been doing this and interested in it for 8 years and gambled for a living for 7. take it with a grain of salt, like you would from a random stock broker you aren't employing who is offering up free advice on the internet.

should i be panicking about my hill futures

Market says your odds have gone down about 6%, 69 - 63%. So, if the market is to be trusted, it's a significant event, but not cause for a full out panic.

I kinda hope Hillary loses just so I can hold it against the people who have spent months saying you're crazy if you don't think Hillary already has the whole thing locked down. She's had like 5 different 4-outers to avoid between her various scandals and health, not to consider the chance she just loses due to her unlikability.

I'm not saying it'll be surprising if she wins, just that people have been way overconfident.

Edit: Interestingly, Trump odds don't seem to have moved quite as much, but I guess that isn't too surprising. If dems put something like Bernie or Biden in there (without inciting a riot from the Bernie supporters), Trump odds go way down. But Clinton limping to the general is obviously a great result for Trump, or if the Dem party becomes a chaotic mess.

Edit 2: I do kinda feel like the market might be underestimating this though, even if she's 100% fine, if gives Trump ammo to say that not only is she unhealthy, but that she's been lying about her health.

What does this mean? That she was an overwhelming favorite to get indicted or something?

I'm saying there were a lot of different factors each with their own small chance of entirely derailing her campaign. Biggest ones being probably being stuff regarding her email server, Clinton Foundation, and her health.

She's pretty much made it through the email server thing without catastrophic damage, and the Clinton Foundation stuff hasn't really gotten much play beyond people who weren't voting for her anyway. These hurt her numbers, but by no means ended up crippling her campaign, so that's a solid win for Clinton.

Obviously today the health thing increased in likelihood of damage, whether due to her health itself or simply Trump's ability to attack it as a weakness. In either case, her doctor has come out claiming that she has pneumonia now, so even if that's all she's got, there's a good chance she's going to be weakened and able to campaign even less during some of the most important time before the election. Pneumonia can be pretty serious for older people, but even if she recovers perfectly well, it'll take time.

Then there's still stuff like whether Wikileaks is actually holding onto anything that can actually gain enough political traction to hurt her when released, or if they're just posturing. And then there's the fact that both the Clintons are and pretty much always have been walking scandal generators - there is always a new scandal popping up when they're involved.

It's certainly possible that everything above goes away and comes out to nothing, Clinton's health recovers and she waltzes to the presidency without it ever looking like there was any doubt of the result. But, as I see it at least, there are so many variables and factors that could go wrong for her in the meanwhile that I question people's confidence, let alone the possibility that she just loses the election based on her unpopularity.

Obviously, Trump has the potential to implode his own campaign as well, but he's already considered the underdog.

Kaine for prez up to 4c

lol at people who brag about not voting

Is there a mechanism in place where he can replace Hillary on the ballot ? How do the rules for this work?

Dvaut posted a bit on the difficulty in changing the ballot in the election thread. In summary, it is a state by state mess.

Hillary won't get replaced unless she is incapacitated or steps down. Tough to challenge the Clinton family head on. There is some chance of both.. She could be bed ridden, or she could throw the towel from the stress and enjoy the last years of her life. Most likely she limps to the finish line though.

Sent from my SM-G925W8 using Tapatalk