In the poker game of life, withdrawal fees are the ****ing rake

Didn't realize it was only for a month. My thought is that he would quit near the end if he was sure he would lose.

PI's contract is for the month, I think William Hill or whatever Brit bookie that was cited is likely good until election day.

Yeah, I think so.

Clinton winning GA is good value at 0.43 imo. Multiple polls showing her ahead, 538 has her at 51%.

Why isnt trump dropping with a new "republican" in the race?

Because he won't be on mists ballots and because he most likely will make a serious comeback and win

Similar to how betting markets didn't move much when Trump was slightly favored by 538 and polls due to the convention bounce, they also aren't moving Georgia due to Clinton's post convention bounce. The markets are telling you here they expect the race to tighten after the convention bounces settle out. If your only reason for betting Clinton here is due to current polling and 538, I don't think there is much value.

Big jump in prices today. Looks like Clinton's convention bounce was more long-lived than expected.

It's still unclear but I think it's less a convention bounce and more a realignment based on Khan and on Clinton being painted as an acceptable candidate by well liked people like Obama and Bill.

In free money news, Paul Ryan to win his primary today is still selling in the low 90s

https://www.predictit.org/Market/237...make-in-August

GOAT new market

I lost a ****ing ton of money trying to arb that market and I don't even understand why. It looked like there was a ton of value with all 5 contracts way overpriced.

The pricing ranges make no sense at all to me. Gonna load up on 8+ anyway. YOLO

I got in early and am crushing, missed out on getting 15c B1 Nos though, B1 initially spiked up to something like 85+.

This is why it has been so amazing, people aren't reading or are misinterpreting the rules. It is when the statement was made, not when polifact declared it as pants-on-fire, so he is currently at 2 for august, not 4, and has never had more than 5 in a month (although hes off to a hot start this month). The "Obama created ISIS" might get one too I'd guess though.

I just browsed a whole bunch of comments from one of the YES bettors on the Trump 370+ EVs market. Essentially, he believes the Bible has predicted that Trump will be President.

Now that I see what's going on I'm selling 8+, buying 4-. Basically just pushing buttons.


This market is still free money, but it was just amazing when this was selling for 0.16. Insta-maxed that one.

The only thing I can think of is that I ****ed up the math and there was no arb opportunity. Normally when I lose money arbing it's because there is an unexpected drop in one contract leaving me with a huge loss on that contract, like what I did on Hill with a ton of money coming in on Yes1 after I bought No1. For the Trump market, those contract values have held steady which normally means I make money.

Yeah, other commenters were reminiscing about getting NO for as low as 76c.

4-6 seems the most likely range, but i've been buying up everything cheap since the higher ranges will likely keep going up in price from here as he gets more pants of fires throughout the month. I sold most of my b5s around 28c though since I'm guessing its not going higher than that, and that he will have at least 4 since he is already at 2-3.

Looks like you can buy all the NOs right now for $3.89 if you get the Bid price. That will give you a penny or so arb profit.

After checking into it, the Predict rules and Politifact rules for "Totally false" are very restrictive. I count only two qualifying lies for Trump in August so far. Apparently twitter statements don't count. They also have to be newly made ones in August. I would put the chances of eight or more qualifying lies in August at about 5%.

It is at 2 right now, but they are a few days to a week behind events. The "Obama created ISIS" lies could potentially get a POF rating too, so I'm saying we are at 2-3 atm. 8+ is a huge dog still obv but I could see 4-6. The most he has ever had in a month is 5 fwiw despite lying nonstop all year.

The problem (or opportunity?) is most people in this market are irrational or ******ed. There are people still entering the market thinking we are at 4+ even after 24h of discussion and a clarifying note by predicit. So if say, that ISIS claim gets a POF rating in the next few days, giving us 3 confirmed, all the higher brackets (including 8+) will likely start surging upwards despite there not really being much of a change in the chances of 8+ happening.

And we are at 3
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...ounded-isis-c/

He talks about them founding ISIS as a joke along with the ISIS MVP award. Obviously they didn't found ISIS, but are they counting obvious joking exaggerations as lies ?