Betting on Elections thread - Page 48 - Politics and Economics

at this point im cautious about taking up the bet against alex for the general. I mean, clearly I have underestimated Trump's appeal for awhile. im on the fence about it.

07-26-2016 , 01:40 AM

#1177

Zorkman

banned

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 6,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

Zorkman, when I gave you Trump at 5-1 odds, Trump was 7-1 to win the Presidency. Our small bet has long since been integrated into my positions. The only time I ever think about our bet is me wondering if you're going to pay out.

Thanks for the offer, though, very generous!

I look forward to paying you the $100 you will so richly deserve if my man doesn't pull it off, if only so I can demonstrate my non-*******ry. But yeah it would still be better to win!

07-27-2016 , 01:19 PM

#1178

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

https://www.predictit.org/Market/233...-chair-in-2017

I pumped this from 27 to 58 and sold today, cause I have limited liquid funds and it won't resolve until January 2017, but is Brazile yes as free money as it looks? I may try to rebuy some shares in the 40s.

Rules:
"The individual named in the question shall be chair or interim chair of the Democratic National Committee as of 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 3, 2017."

Brazile has stated she will stay on as interim until January 2017.

This link shows that since 1977 (the last 18 that had a specific start date), no Chairman took office before January 21 (day after inauguration).

07-27-2016 , 02:50 PM

#1179

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

Welp guess it was free money after all since its now up to 87c

07-28-2016 , 06:36 PM

#1180

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 20,646

ok I want to do the same bet for the stipulations that you gave to andathar
for the maximum. ill go look at my bank accounts to see what that is. Quote to book nwhen i find out alex.

07-28-2016 , 07:00 PM

#1181

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Attn: SenorKeeed, you owe me $100 RE: who will win the GOP nomination.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2086

In lieu of paying me, I suggest a $100 donation to GiveDirectly:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveDirectly

I will not follow up or chase you around the forums to secure payment. However, if you post proof of your $100 donation (e.g., screenshot), I will post proof of a $100 matching donation from me.

Bump.

Did Senor Keed pay up?

07-28-2016 , 10:15 PM

#1182

DrawNone

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 5,023

maybe Keed was an Ikes alt account the whole time and irl Ikes killed himself after Ikexit.

I'm looking for $500 on TRUMP to PRESIDENT. I'm flexible on odds and will happily escrow/anything else to make reputable posters comfortable taking my action.

07-28-2016 , 10:46 PM

#1183

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

Alex is betting on Trump against all comers at +200 so you'll need to offer better than that. I had my fill of that already.

07-28-2016 , 11:47 PM

#1184

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 20,646

same stipulations as Adanthar my 3k against your 2k.
quote to book.

07-29-2016 , 12:09 AM

#1185

Zorkman

banned

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 6,341

you guys use language that I don't understand. Your bets are awfully vague. Aren't you all worried about wiggle room?

07-29-2016 , 12:12 AM

#1186

spaceman Bryce

anything you guys want

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 20,646

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zorkman

you guys use language that I don't understand. Your bets are awfully vague. Aren't you all worried about wiggle room?

Alex Wice is a known gambler im a semi known gambler. adnathar is a known gambler. we have always paid up. we arent worried. if i wasnt busto right now id bet 50k on it.

07-29-2016 , 01:36 AM

#1187

Zorkman

banned

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 6,341

mkay

07-29-2016 , 05:05 AM

#1188

jgrimmer44

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 781

Just booked a bet on Trump beating Clinton for 100 I am getting 5 to 1 odds. Feels like I am printing money here what do you think guys?

07-29-2016 , 02:20 PM

#1189

lycosid

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,806

This is maybe dumb but is anyone concerned about liquidity on PredictIt? They're going to have a huge amount of withdrawals after the election, and I really have no idea if they are set up to handle that.

07-29-2016 , 02:24 PM

#1190

vinivici9586

Breakfast?

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,604

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgrimmer44

Just booked a bet on Trump beating Clinton for 100 I am getting 5 to 1 odds. Feels like I am printing money here what do you think guys?

depends whether or not trump wins

07-29-2016 , 02:46 PM

#1191

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by lycosid

I'm not too worried. They collect massive fees. If they aren't swimming in money right now, they are doing something very wrong.

07-29-2016 , 03:20 PM

#1192

revots33

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 13,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgrimmer44

Just booked a bet on Trump beating Clinton for 100 I am getting 5 to 1 odds. Feels like I am printing money here what do you think guys?

Well I'd say 5-1 is very good odds for you considering he's about 2-1 on Predictit.

07-29-2016 , 04:25 PM

#1193

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

I think that 5-1 is probably around true value for Trump, but yes those odds are much better than you'll find at any book.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lycosid

This is a legitimate concern imo.

07-29-2016 , 04:57 PM

#1194

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

They just make an insane amount of money off fees imo. Just checked my trade history, I've paid about 1/3 of my profit in fees, and that's not counting the withdrawal fee.

I'd be more worried about the backlog of them processing hundreds/thousands of requests which means it may take longer than normal to cash out. I think in terms of liquidity they are fine, but I have no clue how many people they actually have processing requests.

07-29-2016 , 05:05 PM

#1195

adanthar

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 20,109

I had a 100% bankroll withdrawal request on Intrade the day after both the 2008 and 2012 elections and was very aware I was playing with fire in 2012, which is also a big reason I didn't have nearly as much on that year

will predictit go down? not nearly as likely as intrade (who were purposefully not making any money that year), but the odds aren't 0%

07-29-2016 , 05:41 PM

#1196

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

I need to figure out the accounting....if I make the bet in 2016 and win the bet in 2016, but don't withdraw a dime until 2017, is that a 2016 taxable event or 2017 taxable event?

I've always done it in this manner as a 2016 event, but I've heard this may be incorrect.

07-29-2016 , 06:14 PM

#1197

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,424

Really? I would be shocked if it weren't a 2016 event (taxable when the bet is adjudicated)

07-29-2016 , 06:22 PM

#1198

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

All the tax stuff I have read on 2+2 is the bets are taxable when the winnings are transferred to an account you control. This includes betting accounts, not just withdrawals to bank accounts.