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Old 03-11-2016, 10:04 AM   #76
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Yeah agree with Adanthar.
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:39 AM   #77
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Thanks for the analysis. Why wouldn't you be betting if you expect large margins, especially when places like MO and OH are around .50 right now?

Also, on what basis are you attributing only 20 percent to turnout models being wrong. I can understand you not wanting to share your secret sauce, but do you know the the polling turnout projections were only "meh" as opposed to wildly wrong.

I admit I haven't had much success digging up what most pollsters are projecting for turnout, but the footnotes I have read say they are using the recent midterms turnouts as opposed to 2008 numbers which MI didn't even have reliable numbers for because of their unique situation then.

Furthermore, even if pollsters were hitting the right turnout percentages overall, it sounded like there was potential for their racial mix to be way off since Wayne turnout was 31% compared to a statewide 40% number.

I'm rather new to looking at this stuff, so I may be making a lot of terrible assumptions about how the pollsters determine their turnout projections.

Last edited by ShippityDooDah; 03-11-2016 at 10:57 AM.
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:55 AM   #78
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

The debate was not late breaking news.
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Old 03-11-2016, 11:00 AM   #79
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I know I'm being paranoid and all, but have people been cashing out of predictit ok?
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Old 03-11-2016, 11:08 AM   #80
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I'm just making a slightly educated guess. Since there was a game changing event the polls explicitly didn't cover and the postmortems are looking at flaws in individual demos rather than the whole thing, the math adds up; a 20 point off result is just much more likely to come from a late electorate shift.

If you can get 1/1 on Hil in Ohio by all means take it, Betfair has like 1/3 right now. MO is unpolled and I'm not touching it on either side.

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The debate was not late breaking news.
It was for the polling. Nobody polled afterwards.
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:16 PM   #81
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Disclaimer: not betting the Dem side and wouldn't post if I was

The only times US polls fail big are when they quit the field before late breaking news or when they get their voter models wildly wrong. The Michigan primary was something like 80% from column A, 20% from column B. The voter models were meh, but what really did it was a big debate all about Flint (no polls after it) coupled with some Dems crossing over to the R primary thinking the Dem one was over.

Neither of these are a factor for Illinois. I fully expect the polls to be reasonable and Bernie to be crushed in every state with large spreads.
Both Illinois polls to me look really bad. They are not detailed enough to draw meaningful conclusions from them. I looked at the polls and couldn't find any breakdown of % by age group (the other poll doesnt even have age group dist. for each candidate as far as i could find - a complete joke.). Respectfully disagree with you on your assessment that this isn't a factor for Illinois. I think he is within single digits in Illinois right now easily. Let's wait til we actually get a poll with more data.
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:21 PM   #82
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I went ahead on Predictit, they better not freeroll me or steal my identity.

I took Bernie in IL, MO, FL, and OH. (I went NO Hillary on one of them) Just being a homer.

Looking at other bets though.

Will Hillary face charges in 2016? No at $.70 seems like a really good bet.
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:23 PM   #83
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

You are braver than me for taking the Bernster in FL, I will say that!
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:24 PM   #84
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Not sure who this guy is, but he used statistical model to conclude that IL was a neck-and-neck race. Pretty good for the odds PredictIt is giving.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...tic-primaries/
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:32 PM   #85
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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You are braver than me for taking the Bernster in FL, I will say that!
Definitely a homer bet, but it's small. You got me hoping with your talk about where Bernie is going hard. I'd much rather get to be that it'll be w/in 10pts or something. Maybe I'll be able to sell early at a good price.
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:36 PM   #86
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Definitely a homer bet, but it's small. You got me hoping with your talk about where Bernie is going hard. I'd much rather get to be that it'll be w/in 10pts or something. Maybe I'll be able to sell early at a good price.
Good point. I think it all depends on when they count the absentee ballots. Something like 20-30% of people said they already voted, with a pretty big spread in favor of Hillary (granted this was probably mostly old people anyway, but still). If they dont include the absentee ballots until later in the counting, early returns may look very good for Bernie. I think people who bet on Hillary in Florida who also got burned on her in Michigan may get cold feet if early numbers come in close.
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:41 PM   #87
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I mean, I agree he won't lose by 40 in states where he goes on air, but his polls are just as bad everywhere, so as of today either they are all wrong by even larger margins than Michigan or there's no momentum to speak of.

Also, one thing I've found really sucks from personal experience is being right about a late surge, betting on it taking a candidate back from X points down and then having it end up at X-1. If your bets need them to be 25 freaking points wrong that's gonna tend to happen a lot.
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:42 PM   #88
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Put my money where my mouth is and bet Bernie in MO/OH/IL. Wish I would have got in more earlier on MO.
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Old 03-11-2016, 01:00 PM   #89
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Another reason why I really like the MO/OH/IL bet, and i realize this is mostly specious, but Bernie's back is still against the wall. It was back against the wall in MI. If he loses all 5 of these states, he is dead in the water most likely, so he absolutely MUST win one state. (discounting the nearly impossible scenario where he loses like 3 states by a percent or two maximum). If he wins one state, it will be one of the three i mentioned above (likely MO or OH). If you bet all 3, you are going to essentially lose ~15-20% of your investment if he only wins one state (prices currently 18c+54c+36c = 108 and then there is the 10% vig). Then we be free-rolling the rest.
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Old 03-11-2016, 01:48 PM   #90
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I'm short Bern in IL, so you're a lock.

I only saw the one (Tribune) poll, but Hill was up 42%! I don't care at all about mid Feb polls.
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Old 03-11-2016, 01:52 PM   #91
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Good luck
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Old 03-11-2016, 01:59 PM   #92
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

My other IL bet is long Rubio. My 6% shares have declined to 1%. Like I said, you're a lock.
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Old 03-11-2016, 02:29 PM   #93
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Trump at $.56 in MO. I don't think Cruz has won an open primary other than TX.

Also, NO Trump in FL seems like a good buy at $.16.
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Old 03-11-2016, 02:34 PM   #94
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

MO poll out just now:

Clinton 47
Sanders 40

Trump 36
Cruz 29
Rubio 9
Kasich 8

IMO, fair prices are something like Clinton 75/Trump 65. GL
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Old 03-11-2016, 02:38 PM   #95
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Reading the last 12 posts in this thread makes me want to bet Hildawg in all the Tuesday states. Seems like all the Bernfans are going to draw too many conclusions about their chances from the Michigan result.
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Old 03-11-2016, 02:42 PM   #96
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Yeah, I think she's undervalued in every one. Particulary 84c in Illinois and 64c in Ohio.
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Old 03-11-2016, 02:58 PM   #97
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Wow 47/40 poll and you guys think Hillary is the free money, I think its the opposite.

-13% undecided - are they more likely to pick the person with YUGE unfavorability or the person who has higher favorability than any other candidate?
-YUGE uncertainty (MOE 8%)
-No breakdown of age groups
-YUGE amount of people undecided on which primary they are voting in
-Poll was conducted from 3rd of march, so most done before debates/michigan primary.
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Old 03-11-2016, 04:24 PM   #98
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Wow 47/40 poll and you guys think Hillary is the free money, I think its the opposite.

-13% undecided - are they more likely to pick the person with YUGE unfavorability or the person who has higher favorability than any other candidate?
-YUGE uncertainty (MOE 8%)
-No breakdown of age groups
-YUGE amount of people undecided on which primary they are voting in
-Poll was conducted from 3rd of march, so most done before debates/michigan primary.
It's not that I think it's free money, it just seems like there are a lot of Bernie fans placing a lot of hope into Michigan results while Hilary bettors are less likely to bet their biases.
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Old 03-11-2016, 04:26 PM   #99
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I have been wondering if there isn't just going to be an inherent pro-Bernie bias in a place like Predictic where there are no old people.
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Old 03-11-2016, 04:28 PM   #100
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Rubio throwing his OH support to Kasich didn't move the Kasich.OH market at all. lol Rubio. Perhaps lol me as well because I decided to go long Kasich.OH because of it.
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