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Old 03-08-2016, 03:20 PM   #51
iron81
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Not saying I think that's a bad bet, but the reason why Kasich might do well is that Hawaii is super liberal. I suspect it's vaguely similar to VT where Kasich did well.

It's fun to keep offering to buy Rubio 2nd in MI at 1% and watching everyone snap up the shares. Also opted to short Brokered convention on the basis of Rubio having a bad night tonight and my general rage at the thought.

Last edited by iron81; 03-08-2016 at 03:26 PM.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:03 PM   #52
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81 View Post
Not saying I think that's a bad bet, but the reason why Kasich might do well is that Hawaii is super liberal. I suspect it's vaguely similar to VT where Kasich did well.

It's fun to keep offering to buy Rubio 2nd in MI at 1% and watching everyone snap up the shares. Also opted to short Brokered convention on the basis of Rubio having a bad night tonight and my general rage at the thought.
Yeah, I am not sure if it's a good bet or not. It's hard to evaluate long shots. I feel like a guy with limited organization who has been focusing on the midwest is going to be a pretty big dog to win a closed caucus. There's no polling though. I might not bet against him at .99, but .95 seems favorable.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:57 PM   #53
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

The problem with HI is a) it's a caucus and b) it's had zero polling. So we take the priors of a) national polls where TRUMP is crushing, b) TRUMP doing badly in caucuses and c) Cruz doing well in caucuses, d) hawaii being a super blue state and decide we have no idea what the outcome will be. And if we have no idea what the outcome will be, Any Candidate selling for 4c seems like a buy.
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Old 03-08-2016, 05:12 PM   #54
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

RCP doesn't have any national polls since Feb.
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Old 03-08-2016, 05:33 PM   #55
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Right, that too
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Old 03-08-2016, 06:25 PM   #56
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

where can i find the 538 live blog for super tuesday II ?
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Old 03-08-2016, 06:28 PM   #57
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Either they haven't put one up yet or they won't do one.
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Old 03-08-2016, 06:31 PM   #58
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Never mind, this is it: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-the-gop-race/
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:22 PM   #59
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

where are you guys getting all exit poll info and updates for live betting?

imlooking at

http://www.politico.com/2016-electio...ident/michigan

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/08/politi...dex.html?bitly

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog...election-2016/

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:50 PM   #60
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Lost a ton of equity on Clinton.MI, but I BOUGHT THE DIP and got some back.
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Old 03-08-2016, 10:34 PM   #61
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Predictit on the MI Dems is not ready for live betting. Takes forever to get orders matched.
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Old 03-08-2016, 10:37 PM   #62
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Yeah it def wasn't. GJ to those who bought the dip. I sold some at 40 and then some at 80 (lol), now im freerolling the rest.
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Old 03-09-2016, 02:01 AM   #63
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

goofball were you the one quoting your crap projections in the comments section?

i didn't bet on them, just curious
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Old 03-09-2016, 03:50 AM   #64
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

FWIW, I wanted to believe that North Carolina was going to be the "Michigan" of March 15th, but after hearing Sanders talk today and looking at berniefriendfinder.com, it looks like the primary focus is on Illinois/Ohio/Florida. If he isn't spending as much time in NC, the same magic may not happen there that happened in Michigan.
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Old 03-09-2016, 04:22 AM   #65
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Got killed, lost 70% of my roll less than 24 hours after depositing, gg.
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Old 03-09-2016, 04:29 AM   #66
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

RIP. Sorry to hear that. The market is SUPER volatile. It looks like storm is settling a little bit after the craziness that transpired today. I'm looking at the prices now and I just don't think I know enough to make a +EV buy either way. Holding some cheap shares in MO and OH, I dumped NC at 11cents (got in at 4 cents lmao). May get back in to NC once the dust settles but I originally got in the NC market to dump after Bernie's upset in Michigan today and I'm gonna stick to that plan. My only regret is not trusting my gut more and investing more heavily in the March 15 states!! (other than Florida, i avoided than and will continue to avoid it).

Last edited by imjosh; 03-09-2016 at 04:37 AM.
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Old 03-09-2016, 04:32 AM   #67
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

After the initial slide all the way down to 10% Clinton spiked up to 60% briefly. For some reason, I elected not to get out then.

Of course the GOP MI polling was dead on, my Rubio 2nd shares were never close.
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Old 03-09-2016, 04:44 AM   #68
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Let's all follow Google Trends to the promised land
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Old 03-09-2016, 04:46 AM   #69
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81 View Post
After the initial slide all the way down to 10% Clinton spiked up to 60% briefly. For some reason, I elected not to get out then.

Of course the GOP MI polling was dead on, my Rubio 2nd shares were never close.
Yeah after the Wayne results came in I saw that it was actually possible to still buy HillNO/BernYES for something crazy like 15 or 20 cents. The site was really unresponsive during that time though.

BTW, have any of you dove into the comments section of predictit? The "berniedinosocialist" guy makes me laugh so much.
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Old 03-09-2016, 11:18 AM   #70
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Does anyone know what is going on with 5dimes politics lines? A couple weeks ago they had lines for every candidate and each state's primary. Why did they pull everything? Will the lines come back?
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Old 03-09-2016, 07:31 PM   #71
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

New market on predictit, lol

Will Trump be bleeped during the CNN/Univision debate?

Also markets on when Rubio and kasich will drop out
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Old 03-09-2016, 08:20 PM   #72
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

The market simultaneously has Kaisch a favorite in Ohio and a favorite to drop out of the race within two days. I guess they are expecting him to win and then drop out after a win. Why does that make sense?
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Old 03-09-2016, 08:46 PM   #73
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

The idea would be to simply deny TRUMP the delegates and force a brokered convention. However, that scenario doesn't get Kasich much because if he still wants to be President he needs to stay in. If Kasich manages to win OH, he'll stay in and camp out some place like Indiana or New Jersey and try to luckbox something.
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Old 03-11-2016, 05:17 AM   #74
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Friends, I have done my research and found that Illinois is going to be Michigan 2.0. Follow me to the big money once again by betting Bernie.

The bad:
Google trends analysis not as overwhelmingly good for Bernie in Illinois as in Michigan (however - still several days to go)
Polls (more like LOLs, completely ignore those things)

The good:
-Relative facebook likes of Bernie vs Hillary in IL compared to US average (not as good as in Michigan however)
-Open primary (same as Michigan)
-Late registration (benefit over Michigan - HUGE)
-He is going for it in IL - check out these 3 new ads all set to air in IL today.
-I live in IL

All in all, the money is not as free as it was in Michigan, but I still think there is pretty good value here on a Bernie upset win - too bad the prediction markets have wised up though. If this were the same odds as Michigan I would be all in. The risk now is to take the action where the price is currently or try to wait for it to dip a bit lower, it has been dipping slowly.

Last edited by imjosh; 03-11-2016 at 05:33 AM.
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Old 03-11-2016, 08:27 AM   #75
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Disclaimer: not betting the Dem side and wouldn't post if I was

The only times US polls fail big are when they quit the field before late breaking news or when they get their voter models wildly wrong. The Michigan primary was something like 80% from column A, 20% from column B. The voter models were meh, but what really did it was a big debate all about Flint (no polls after it) coupled with some Dems crossing over to the R primary thinking the Dem one was over.

Neither of these are a factor for Illinois. I fully expect the polls to be reasonable and Bernie to be crushed in every state with large spreads.
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