Betting on Elections thread - Page 25 - Politics and Economics

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Politics

Betting on Elections thread

...

Page 25 of 112

First

5 15 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 35 45 75

Last

Page 25 of 112

First

5 15 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 35 45 75

Last

04-24-2016 , 10:37 PM

#601

microbet

Solar Powered

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 56,512

I'd rather go no/yes and just win both.

04-24-2016 , 10:43 PM

#602

beansroast01

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 20,494

That's my feeling too, but i'm sure others on here might disagree.

04-25-2016 , 12:04 AM

#603

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

Trump's nom odds have even dropped 10% on this news...

Last edited by iron81; 04-25-2016 at 12:10 AM.

04-25-2016 , 12:36 AM

#604

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

Trump's nom odds have even dropped 10% on this news...

that's because his odds of winning Indiana have plummeted

04-25-2016 , 01:48 AM

#605

beansroast01

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 20,494

Why no movement in this market?

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1...e-in-2016#data

04-25-2016 , 02:59 AM

#606

goofyballer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 70,719

Trump No in Nebraska @ 75 is absurdly good value, right? Am I taking crazy pills and there's something I don't understand?

04-25-2016 , 07:55 PM

#607

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Right now on Predictit, you can buy Kasich in Oregon for 18c, or you can buy Kasich to win 2 primaries for 14c. How to decide ?

04-26-2016 , 03:15 PM

#608

goofyballer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 70,719

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Trump No in Nebraska @ 75 is absurdly good value, right? Am I taking crazy pills and there's something I don't understand?

Bump, down to 70 and I want to buy even more, someone talk me out of this before I blow my life savings

04-26-2016 , 03:16 PM

#609

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

I won't, I bought in at 75. If your life savings can fit under the cap, maybe find another hobby.

04-26-2016 , 03:53 PM

#610

goofyballer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 70,719

04-26-2016 , 04:48 PM

#611

Alex Wice

aka Double Ice

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 5,951

Skype me: alexwice for live quotes if you wanna bet against trump on anything
Escrow is available for large bets

04-26-2016 , 07:36 PM

#612

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Trump No in Nebraska @ 75 is absurdly good value, right? Am I taking crazy pills and there's something I don't understand?

Closing in on 60 right now...and I assume it'll drop even further in the next couple hours.

04-26-2016 , 08:06 PM

#613

adanthar

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 20,109

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris M

Closing in on 60 right now...and I assume it'll drop even further in the next couple hours.

I'm really regretting not being on PI right now, that's a free $850

04-26-2016 , 09:51 PM

#614

microbet

Solar Powered

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 56,512

TV shows Bernie slightly ahead in CT, why is he $.11?

04-26-2016 , 10:02 PM

#615

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

I'm really regretting not being on PI right now, that's a free $850

A little less than that when you're betting on favorites, $850 is the max potential loss.

04-27-2016 , 09:24 AM

#616

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

I'm struggling to find any Nebraska polling data. Can you guys point me to why it is a lock for Cruz or is it just that he won Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa?

04-27-2016 , 11:21 AM

#617

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

I'm struggling to find any Nebraska polling data. Can you guys point me to why it is a lock for Cruz or is it just that he won Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa?

there are demographic predictions for states

nebraska is predicted to be like a cruz+20 state

04-27-2016 , 11:40 AM

#618

revots33

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 13,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Trump No in Nebraska @ 75 is absurdly good value, right? Am I taking crazy pills and there's something I don't understand?

Any chance Cruz drops out before then if he gets beat badly in Indiana? Small I guess since he's hoping for the contested convention but you never know.

Also if Trump wins big in Indiana Cruz could start to look like a loser ala Rubio/Jeb. I don't think it's free money, 60-40 for Cruz probably correct odds.

04-27-2016 , 03:16 PM

#619

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

I'm struggling to find any Nebraska polling data. Can you guys point me to why it is a lock for Cruz or is it just that he won Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Iowa?

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/201...al-results-map

Here's the data you're looking for. One of these states is just like the others.

04-28-2016 , 09:18 AM

#620

CarbonIsTheNutLow

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 425

Since Betfair appears to be the only place with decent volume, are there any betfair brokers (act as an intermediary to place bets) that:

1. Allow bets from the U.S (with or without VPN)
2. Take BTC deposits, p2p trades, or other online deposit method
3. Are at least somewhat trustworthy?

Or any other way to access Betfair markets, but I assume either a broker or directly are the only choices.

Ty

04-28-2016 , 10:18 AM

#621

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

PredictIt's US political betting volume is probably at least 3x Betfair's US political betting volume. You're capped on how much you can bet in individual markets on PI (usually $1700 in the state markets), but there are quite a lot of markets to bet on.

04-28-2016 , 11:49 AM

#622

CarbonIsTheNutLow

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 425

Thanks, looks like it could be useful and have better volume for state primaries, though it's not quite what I'm looking for on the main presidential market. (Odds not as good for the candidates I would like + capped betting.) Would still probably need to find a way to access betfair for that.