Seems this error has corrected itself.

for which states would that be problematic? i think both Sanders, and especially Trump, would have enough popular support, as well as money, to battle any legal issues

Why would Bernie submit himself to all that stress and nonstop attacks? His upside is fading to irrelevance so that Hillary still manages to win and his downside is going down in history as the crazy socialist who put Trump/Cruz in the white house.

He has no path to 270 with Hillary in the race, especially when Hillary has the D next to her name.

Setting aside any legal issues, the first ballot deadline for an independent candidate is in 18 days in Texas.

by the time the GOP candidate is picked, Trump will be unable to get on the ballot in 11 states, including 3 major swing states (Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina), with many more states just days away from accepting signatures.

Bernie would face the same problem.

They'd have to drop out and run independent very, very quickly. And getting signatures in that many states will be an expensive proposition.

Do you have a link? According to this website, the deadlines are much later. Or are you talking about some other deadlines?

Bern campaigning in PA today, drop out shares dumped.

Remember I suggested this under the assumption that Trump runs as independent, along with Cruz/Kasich/Some other R. A race that includes Clinton, Sanders, Trump, Cruz (, Johnson) is quite unpredictable. Why would Sanders not have a chance, considering the enthusiasm he has generated among half or republicans and a significant chunk of independents?

that link says what i just said?

Sorry, my mistake (MM/DD confusion). You're right.

Seems like a sore loser from each party would lose access to 14 states, if they decide to run for independent after all.

By the way, I don't think this necessarily guarantees losing the election (including the absence of access to the swing states). As I wrote in my previous comment, in a 4-5 way race, many more states have the potential to become swing states.

Having said that, I don't think Sanders would have the balls to run under those circumstances. I can't say the same for Trump though.

Spot the number of things wrong with this picture. Yes, the rules for a brokered convention are "multiple rounds of voting".

- Small arbitage opp to lay Yes and No
- Large bid/ask spread on Yes
- Yuuuge gap between backing No and laying Yes when they should be identical.
- The No market seems a lot more liquid than the Yes market for some reason.

Democratic MOV in PA <13 for .33 on predictit is free money imo.

Surprising new Indiana poll:

Trump 37% Cruz 31% !

http://www.wthr.com/story/31792956/e...ead-in-indiana

Indiana is crucial.

what on earth makes you think that?

Decidedly not free money. That margin is within the MOE on recent polls.

I'm scared to enter that market. Though Jeff Weaver said their internal polling for PA was better than polls indicated, and those same polls were used to create a benchmark politics model that yielded a 10 point margin. Also, BMP hit the NY market dead on for the most part. The thing I'm concerned about is turnout. It might be lower after the big loss in NY.

*Note the +27 poll in PA was not used in the BMP model, but the polling methodology was probably one of the worst i've ever seen this primary cycle (and as proof, it didn't even really move the MOV market at all once it dropped)

I realllly think it's going to be under 13 points, but I also thought the same thing about NY as well. So that has me second-guessing myself.

I do think the market should be closer to if not 50/50 though.

market was mid-50s when it was released and hit low 70s.

Was that poll really what caused it to flip to 33/67 or was that just quick market stabilization from when it opened?

It looks like the poll came out yesterday. (I found a lot of news links for yesterday morning). Poll itself: http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/7...april-2016.pdf

Here's the candle plot for The 20th and the 21st.



edit: ahh, i wish you could show hour-by-hour trends for more than the past 24 hours on PredictIt. Since it's been pretty stable the past 24 hours, you are probably right that the market trended up some on the release of the F&M poll. Lowest price traded was 57 cents on April 21st.

Well, regardless. I don't think the PA <13 market is completely free money but I think for under 35 cents it's a good bet.

Trump cant win!! well to all thosepeople i made bets with ill pay them sometime before the convention once it becomes clear hes the winner ormaybe it will be contested and ill be the winner....

RI market just bombed 10 cents for Bernie and I can't find any new polls, what's up with that? Leaked polls maybe? I checked Twitter and everything.

Ahh there's the poll now. I guess there was some insider trading going on. Market started moving about 15-20 minutes before the Twitter post

Free money alert?

Yes (25c) - https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2...-April-30#data

Bernie Yes (60c) - https://www.predictit.org/Market/201...cratic-primary

Hard to imagine any scenario where Bernie is still in the race and doesn't win Oregon.