538 projects NY at 97% Hillary, why are you so anxious to bet Bernie there?

Seriously?

Josh if you want to bet Bern at that price, just leave an open offer for your price and go to bed.

538 should be discredited for predicting this years primaries. It has been the same formula for every Democrat prediction I have looked at. Show the win percentages based on the average polling numbers, then increase Hillary's odds by 5%-10% in the polls plus. With only a couple exceptions the results have been the exact opposite with Bernie outperforming the polling numbers over and over. You would think at some point this would become obvious and they would change their formula. I also remember seeing interviews with Nate Silver saying Trump had no chance to win the nomination. This was awhile ago but still after Trump was way ahead in the polls.

lol you have no clue what you're talking about, but cool story bro

Because I'm fairly confident the price is going to be much higher than 16cents when April 19 rolls around, due to Bernie closing the gap further in polls leading up to that point.

I don't expect another poll to show Bernie down more than the latest Emerson poll showed, which in my opinion means this is the optimal window to buy

imjosh,
Have you ever made a bet that wasn't on Bernie's side?

Nope. If I don't think the market is good for Bernie I just don't participate in it. Usually I just pick the market I think Bernie shares will move up the most in and play it, trying to enter when he is undervalued or when I think his perceived value will increase before a primary/caucus

I just went through the history of polls on Real Clear Politics. Admittedly Hillary outperformed her win margins in most of the SEC states. At least some of which is because polls don't add up to 100% but still better then I had thought.

However I think my point still stands. Bernie has won 5 states so far in which he was behind in the RCP average and definitely out performed his polling in more states then Hillary. Alaska and Minnesota only had one poll each so you could discount them but Iowa and MO were virtual ties and he outperformed there so I think its fair to say 5. Hillary has won 0 states in which she trailed in the polls. So I still don't understand why 538 continually bumps Hillary's odds in the polls plus.

Talk me out of brokered convention No for 31c

this doesn't discredit 538 in any way whatsoever. It only proves you're completely ignorant when it comes to statistics.

Not going to argue with you. Especially since you have no argument.

Nope, I bought a bunch of that at 22c, still have it.

All the hours of reading Ukranian websites paid off today with Yatsenyuk's resignation.

Bernie is insane value on PredictIt now. Damn I wish I waited, i ended up buying at 15c before the FOX poll hit.

Why is he so much lower there than on 5dimes and:
https://www.betfairpredicts.com/
and
https://electionbettingodds.com/ny.html

he's not going to win NY dude. This is not Michigan. Demographics, voter registration, home turf...literally every single thing points to a 10+ point loss.

A win for him would be losing by 8 points

I agree he's a huge dog, but the demographics are untested.

The supposition that black people vote the same in Mississippi as New York is no better than the supposition that white people from Mississippi vote the same as white people in New York.

In NY, I'm most worried about the upper middle class and higher and their fears about dramatic changes to investment banks.

we have 21 states with exit polls so far; the demographics are tested out the wazoo

This is the first contest in the mid-atlantic.

He's obviously a dog to win, that's why hes trading at 10-15c, but I think he's a big favorite to be polling closer as the election gets closer (it's happened in almost every, if not literally every state afaik), which means I can sell some of my shares for higher than i paid for them and let the rest ride on the long-shot victory. That's been my strategy for a lot of states so far, has worked pretty well... so far

Probably, but do you think anything in particular will move it?

Are we going to get a 50k person rally?

I already have some NY and a sell at $.30.

Predictit does seem to move a lot so if you're in tune with the timing and can ride the wave, sure why not.

Actually winning, absolutely no chance.

I think the market is propped up by "Bernie will be polling closer" wishful thinking rather than any evidence that he has a chance to win.

This is the only reason it isn't at 92/8 right now (with 92 probably still having slight value).

There's gonna be a rally at Washington Sq. Park the day before the debate (the 13th). That will be the big one, but I'm not sure how many he can fit there. And with still 10 days between now and then I'm expecting some single digit polls. Setting a sell at around 30c sounds like a pretty solid idea.

Nothing like an attention drawing rally the day before a vote where the registration deadline was last month, imo. Positively Trumpesque.

If you want to bet on Bernie, this market looks like there is some value.
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2...-April-30#data

He ain't winning NY.