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Old 02-27-2016, 12:52 PM   #26
domer2
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I've turned 4k into 7.5k on PredictIt after a month, not all that difficult, but the fees are indeed ridiculous. I view it more as a hobby than a way to make serious money.
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Old 02-27-2016, 01:50 PM   #27
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar View Post
Betfair has a lot less fees and a lot higher possible amounts. At many of the books (not sure about Paddy) you'd be lucky to get £100 down on US markets without a line change, and I also really don't want to worry about getting backed off after winning 500 pounds or something ridiculous...
I'm just curious about the mechanics... I have no interest, and no handicapping insight, into betting the Donkeys and Elephants. FYI: I've never bet online, and I legally can't being a Californian. But...
  • When you say 'getting backed off', I assume you mean the online books stop taking your action. Correct? They do that?

  • Do you bet non-USA elections? Do you think there are general handicapping principles across nations-states?

  • I just picked Paddy Power because that was the first google result. Does anyone have any idea of what limits the major online books take on US Politards. IIRC LF-Caliente takes something like $100.

  • If you don't mind, can you compare Betfair's fees -vs- Predictit.

  • If I went to Predictit, entered in $850, and mashed the 'buy' button, let's say of Trump at 73c... how can I tell ahead of time what actual amount(s) at what price(s) I'm going to end up with action at?

  • As a practical matter, say on this year's Elephant race, how many dimes action can I get on a single horse using PredictIt?
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Old 02-27-2016, 05:25 PM   #28
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

1)They can and will when they see you're winning. A few won't bother for small amounts but nobody's really going to sit there and let you make $10K with no consequences. Most of them just have super low max limits in the first place or will move the line after one bet. Using exchanges avoids all of this.

2)The US has uniquely good polling coupled with a two party system that limits the error margins. Polling in the UK is lolbad, so although there's a lot of action I don't think anyone has an edge. Probably true everywhere else too, idk.

3)Betfair's only fee is a flat 5% on wins. There's also some rakeback that you probably won't get (have to bet five to six figures for it to be any good).

4)Look at the # of shares being sold (prices tab). 1K shares at 50c = $500 etc.

5)850 per line per contract, so you could effectively hit Trump.Pres + GOP.Pres + Male.Pres across three diff contracts or a bunch of linked no's for max within one contract. But again, you'd never want to.
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Old 02-27-2016, 06:11 PM   #29
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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3)Betfair's only fee is a flat 5% on wins. There's also some rakeback that you probably won't get (have to bet five to six figures for it to be any good).
Is that 5% of amount won?
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Old 02-27-2016, 07:11 PM   #30
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Net wins, yes
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Old 02-27-2016, 10:37 PM   #31
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Free money:
Right now on predicitit you can buy Hillary to win at 48c and buy "next prez is not female" for 44c. That's 92c for a $1. But like I said, if that's your only bet predictit will take 1c for the win and 5c for the cashout.
You're welcome.
After Bernie's blowout loss today in SC, the gap has now closed on this pair trade. 8% in less than a week, not too bad.
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Old 03-01-2016, 06:52 PM   #32
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Anyone know an easy way to find the state-by-state live results. All the news sites have the information, but what is their source ?
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Old 03-01-2016, 06:55 PM   #33
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

The source is mostly each state's election authority for primaries or partys for caucuses, maybe initially filtered by the AP. If you want to get really aggressive, you can look for county election authority stuff.
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Old 03-05-2016, 05:13 PM   #34
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Bottom line: regardless of Romney, this debate or anything about his penis, Trump's going to pick up about 150/270 delegates through the 9th. Cruz will maybe get around 70 / Rubio 50 (Puerto Rico). At that point,

Trump 460
Cruz 300
Rubio 160
Kasich idk 30 or something

But now we're effectively out of states that Cruz can win. Rubio is going to lose Florida, because he's terrible and because 20% of the vote is already in. The other 3/15 states are proportional and Trump's getting at least a third no matter what. Giving Kasich Ohio and splitting the other stuff fairly evenly (not happening but let's be generous) we have

Trump 630
Cruz 360
Rubio 230
Kasich 100

At this point the race is frozen with almost nobody voting for a month, except that Trump will probably win AZ. Can Rubio stay in the race if he loses Florida? Probably not, even with the brokered convention looming.

This is the point where I expect the Trump price to legit drop a bit as the nuclear missiles leave the silos. Cruz becomes the "only hope" with Kasich trying to be the last sane man standing, which is actually sort of a viable plan here.

Fast forward to NY: New York looks like a proportional state on paper. It's not. There are practically no statewide delegates; 84 of the 95 are allocated by CD Texas-style. 20% min threshold, winner takes 2, 2nd takes one. Cruz is finishing first or second in zero of them. Trump probably wins the majority of upstate, Kasich probably wins the city, end result is they basically chop.

Trump 750
Cruz 400
Rubio 230 and gone
Kasich 180

If we are here on glorious 4/20

A)this is probably going to the convention
B)it's not really possible for Trump to get < 1100 or so delegates and he's probably just going to clinch (everything I just wrote is pretty favorable for #NeverTrump and could easily be much worse)
C)it's not really possible for any of the three musketeers to break 500
D)the GOP is monumentally ****ed no matter what
E)Republican Nominee Donald Trump should be trading at 85-90% and probably still will on the 16th
Good time to short Cruz after he wins KS ?
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Old 03-05-2016, 05:15 PM   #35
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Very good. Shuffle says he's long Cruz at 1%, selling tonight would be free money. Cruz is a dog to win a single March 15th state.
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Old 03-05-2016, 05:27 PM   #36
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81 View Post
Very good. Shuffle says he's long Cruz at 1%, selling tonight would be free money. Cruz is a dog to win a single March 15th state.
This was a great buy. I'm jealous. I need to spend more time thinking about how markets will swing and less about eventual outcomes.
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Old 03-05-2016, 06:03 PM   #37
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

We were talking about your question in the other thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...l#post49519705
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Old 03-07-2016, 09:23 PM   #38
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Signing up for Predictit, anyone got a bonus code?
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Old 03-07-2016, 09:40 PM   #39
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

tweet at them and ask them...I think they give you $20.
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:06 PM   #40
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I got an email around 24 hours after making an account.

BTW, how do you guys like BernYES/HillNO for Michigan tomorrow? I feel like Detroit is going to be bad for Bernie but those votes wont come in until later. I think there is good money to be made buying low and flipping around 30c-40c when market chaos sets in from initial results and close exit polls. Whether I hold any shares until the end or not i will be basing off exit polls, if he is within 3% i think i hold.
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:08 PM   #41
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I don't know whether Detroit comes in late, but I have heard the website tends to lock up on election night which makes precise timing of trades difficult.
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:11 PM   #42
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

i didnt have any problem with trading during super tuesday. Though i had bernie YES on almost all the competitive states so i held most of my shares for the duration then, only missed on some value in MA :{
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:12 PM   #43
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

the site melted down during iowa, but has been rock solid since then (with very minor exceptions)
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:14 PM   #44
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Also on a lesser related note, any idea why Bernie YES always is higher than Hillary NO on predictit? Is it just bernie supporters blindly buying shares? There is a gap of a couple cents in every March 15 state and Michigan as well. Why would anyone buy Bernie YES for 10 cents if Hillary NO is 7 cents?
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:34 PM   #45
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81 View Post
I don't know whether Detroit comes in late, but I have heard the website tends to lock up on election night which makes precise timing of trades difficult.
They did a server upgrade recently that seems to have helped a lot.
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:36 PM   #46
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Put some on Trump.FL at 77, Clinton MI at 92 and Rubio.IL at 7. Also got some on a new Rubio 2nd in MI at 1%.

Last edited by iron81; 03-08-2016 at 01:00 PM.
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:41 PM   #47
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I should throw something on Romney and Ryan just for fun. There is a possibility still that one of them gets a brokered convention nom. It's not a really good bet but a $100 on each is sooo tempting with the payout.
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Old 03-08-2016, 12:53 PM   #48
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I think those are bad bets at 4%. But it would give you entertainment equity in rooting for a brokered convention.

Last edited by iron81; 03-08-2016 at 01:01 PM.
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:04 PM   #49
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

PredictIt puff piece:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-election.html
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:10 PM   #50
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I have a bet on Kaisch NO in Hawaii. Dude hasn't won a state yet, not sure why someplace light years from the midwest would be his first.
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