I've turned 4k into 7.5k on PredictIt after a month, not all that difficult, but the fees are indeed ridiculous. I view it more as a hobby than a way to make serious money.

I'm just curious about the mechanics... I have no interest, and no handicapping insight, into betting the Donkeys and Elephants. FYI: I've never bet online, and I legally can't being a Californian. But...

• When you say 'getting backed off', I assume you mean the online books stop taking your action. Correct? They do that?
  
  
• Do you bet non-USA elections? Do you think there are general handicapping principles across nations-states?
  
  
• I just picked Paddy Power because that was the first google result. Does anyone have any idea of what limits the major online books take on US Politards. IIRC LF-Caliente takes something like $100.
  
  
• If you don't mind, can you compare Betfair's fees -vs- Predictit.
  
  
• If I went to Predictit, entered in $850, and mashed the 'buy' button, let's say of Trump at 73c... how can I tell ahead of time what actual amount(s) at what price(s) I'm going to end up with action at?
  
  
• As a practical matter, say on this year's Elephant race, how many dimes action can I get on a single horse using PredictIt?

1)They can and will when they see you're winning. A few won't bother for small amounts but nobody's really going to sit there and let you make $10K with no consequences. Most of them just have super low max limits in the first place or will move the line after one bet. Using exchanges avoids all of this.

2)The US has uniquely good polling coupled with a two party system that limits the error margins. Polling in the UK is lolbad, so although there's a lot of action I don't think anyone has an edge. Probably true everywhere else too, idk.

3)Betfair's only fee is a flat 5% on wins. There's also some rakeback that you probably won't get (have to bet five to six figures for it to be any good).

4)Look at the # of shares being sold (prices tab). 1K shares at 50c = $500 etc.

5)850 per line per contract, so you could effectively hit Trump.Pres + GOP.Pres + Male.Pres across three diff contracts or a bunch of linked no's for max within one contract. But again, you'd never want to.

Is that 5% of amount won?

Net wins, yes

After Bernie's blowout loss today in SC, the gap has now closed on this pair trade. 8% in less than a week, not too bad.

Anyone know an easy way to find the state-by-state live results. All the news sites have the information, but what is their source ?

The source is mostly each state's election authority for primaries or partys for caucuses, maybe initially filtered by the AP. If you want to get really aggressive, you can look for county election authority stuff.

Good time to short Cruz after he wins KS ?

Very good. Shuffle says he's long Cruz at 1%, selling tonight would be free money. Cruz is a dog to win a single March 15th state.

This was a great buy. I'm jealous. I need to spend more time thinking about how markets will swing and less about eventual outcomes.

We were talking about your question in the other thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...l#post49519705

Signing up for Predictit, anyone got a bonus code?

tweet at them and ask them...I think they give you $20.

I got an email around 24 hours after making an account.

BTW, how do you guys like BernYES/HillNO for Michigan tomorrow? I feel like Detroit is going to be bad for Bernie but those votes wont come in until later. I think there is good money to be made buying low and flipping around 30c-40c when market chaos sets in from initial results and close exit polls. Whether I hold any shares until the end or not i will be basing off exit polls, if he is within 3% i think i hold.

I don't know whether Detroit comes in late, but I have heard the website tends to lock up on election night which makes precise timing of trades difficult.

i didnt have any problem with trading during super tuesday. Though i had bernie YES on almost all the competitive states so i held most of my shares for the duration then, only missed on some value in MA :{

the site melted down during iowa, but has been rock solid since then (with very minor exceptions)

Also on a lesser related note, any idea why Bernie YES always is higher than Hillary NO on predictit? Is it just bernie supporters blindly buying shares? There is a gap of a couple cents in every March 15 state and Michigan as well. Why would anyone buy Bernie YES for 10 cents if Hillary NO is 7 cents?

They did a server upgrade recently that seems to have helped a lot.

Put some on Trump.FL at 77, Clinton MI at 92 and Rubio.IL at 7. Also got some on a new Rubio 2nd in MI at 1%.

I should throw something on Romney and Ryan just for fun. There is a possibility still that one of them gets a brokered convention nom. It's not a really good bet but a $100 on each is sooo tempting with the payout.

I think those are bad bets at 4%. But it would give you entertainment equity in rooting for a brokered convention.

PredictIt puff piece:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-election.html

I have a bet on Kaisch NO in Hawaii. Dude hasn't won a state yet, not sure why someplace light years from the midwest would be his first.