Yes, I got the same trade earlier today when things were bouncing around quite a bit. I'll have to watch this more closely on Fridays.

Republicans in Philly suburbs are somewhat moderate, educated, not religious and well-off. Seems to be perfect anti-Trump/Cruz territory.

Just dug up the most recent PA poll and it has Kasich up 11 in Southeastern PA. Trump is up everywhere else, and his biggest margins are in Western PA

Strongly considering selling my WI+5 shares at a slight loss. Apparently an Emerson poll is coming out on Monday for WI, which should drive the price down if history holds true, providing a better time to re-enter the market. Last Emerson poll conducted 2 weeks ago in NY hadClinton +48, and last WI poll conducted by them 2 weeks ago had Clinton +6 in WI. So unless they improved their methodology I expect them to show Sanders performing worse than he is once again.

Loras college poll came out really strong for Hillary today (+6 in an 89% white, 43% younger than 44, cell phone including poll) and it barely moved the market at all, so I really doubt the Emerson poll does much either.

Is Hillary looking underpriced? I've only ever gotten burned betting on her so far :/

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/03/politi...tes/index.html

Just in: Reince says hard no on the airdrop. Free money to short imo

Let's talk about what's going to happen in the brokered convention & how Ted Cruz was left for dead and is quickly becoming the favorite in that scenario. A massive shift in value/odds.

I wrote this a month ago in the ST thread:

So that's 3% combined on Super Tuesday for Cruz/Kasich, now up to 38%(27/11)! Amazing what's happened last few days to accelerate it. Cruz had such low odds but as the delegates get unwound in successive votes at a potential convention, it's going to be hard to argue anyone else deserves it outside Trump.

So do you buy Cruz at the highs or Trump down 29% off his highs? Or do you buy Paul Ryan (up to 5%) as the thief of the convention or someone else?

The polls being so close on the dem WI side does not make any sense to me. I thought for sure Bernie would be comfortably winning by 5 points in WI, and I still think he will. Those polls, though...

That being said, if the dem MOV market dips to 50c or maybe even just 55c I might hop back in.

It's an open primary, right? As long as they don't screw over independent voters Bernie will crush.

yeah its open. Same day reg

Can someone explain these prices to me ?
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1...ate#openoffers

lol, the disconnect between that contract and ROMNEY.RNOM16 is ridiculous. How would he become a candidate in any scenario other than "Republicans choose him in a brokered convention"?

through a third party obviously. Not saying it will happen, but it's not necessarily a disconnect and I'd think the rules of the contract are a bit wider than you might think.

Yeah, he could run third party, but predictit is saying that is 3-4x as likely as winning the republican nom.

I mean he doesn't have a >5 point win in any Midwestern primary so far (narrow win in Michigan. Narrow losses in Illinois and Mizzou. Big loss in Ohio. Narrow loss in Iowa which is a caucus, but turns out like a primary).

538 has Sanders winning by 13 if they were tied nationally, but the national average has Clinton +9 so you would expect Sanders +4 in that model.

Pretty much every data point says the state should be close. I think Sanders is a favorite, but I can't pass up Clinton at .20

I got some in at MOV +5 for 56cents. Sanders didn't have as much time in those other Midwest states as he has had in WI. I also think the larger early voting periods in OH and IL hurt him. Based on what I've heard, I'm expecting the Emerson poll tomorrow to show Sanders ahead by a decent amount, which will drive the Hillary price down.

Emerson poll should be out in the next hour btw

Edit: Bernie +8. Bailed right out

Wisconsin is right next to Minnesota where Bernie won by over 20.

that was a caucus, bernie's home turf

Up 52-38 in early voting. Lock it up

62?

Article says 52-38, I can't find the pdf of the poll. Probably was asked if you early voted, who did you vote for? And 10% didn't want to share. Intuitively I'd think the breakdown of that 10% would favor Hillary, so maybe he's up by like 8-10% in early voting. No evidence to support that thought though.

Is that 52-38 from the Emerson poll? The state couldn't possibly already be releasing those numbers right? How large of a sample of early voters do they have?