Betting on Elections thread - Page 16 - Politics and Economics

A new poll just dropped that updated the average to 49 and the 49.0-49.4 is still basically dead. Don't understand at all. Unless there's a poll out there whose results are known but hasn't been factored into RCP yet, it seems like you'd need a lot of info to determine that the current average was still significantly less likely to be the final number than another.

03-31-2016 , 03:17 PM

#377

ASAP17

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Amazing in <24 hours on PredictWise Trump drops 10%, down to 62% which is his lowest total since over a month ago, Cruz up to 20%, Kasich 11% & now Paul Ryan is up to 5% w/ RomneyRubio reappearing at 1% each.

03-31-2016 , 03:22 PM

#378

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

I wouldn't trust Predictwise. It seems they are aggregating data from different sites. Why not just check the sites themselves? Sometimes the spread on Predictit can be 3-4c so a seemingly big price shift is really just whether the person most recently bought or sold.

03-31-2016 , 03:25 PM

#379

ASAP17

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Quote:

Originally Posted by maxtower

I'm not using it as a betting gauge, just trend changes. Clearly the brokered convention scenario has gotten some pull last couple of days.

03-31-2016 , 03:33 PM

#380

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

I'm not using it as a betting gauge, just trend changes. Clearly the brokered convention scenario has gotten some pull last couple of days.

Yup
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1...n-in-2016#data

It's gone from a dog to favorite in the last couple days.

03-31-2016 , 03:50 PM

#381

mmbt0ne

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

There's potentially an outstanding YouGov/Economist poll that hasn't published yet (they've released their other polls, but not the bi-weekly tracking one). Traditionally they've been one of the lowest performers so you'd expect a 48 to drop out for a result that's more like 44.

03-31-2016 , 04:00 PM

#382

goofyballer

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While I haven't looked a ton, it seems like (and please correct me if this is wrong) they drop groups of older polls rather than individual ones (with the exception for individual ones being if the same organization releases a newer poll that drops their older one, like Reuters at the moment).

Worth noting that the oldest 4 polls, were they to be dropped, average out to the same thing as the newest 7 polls - 49.0. The 3/19-3/22 Bloomberg 50 poll getting dropped would hurt the average though.

03-31-2016 , 04:08 PM

#383

mmbt0ne

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Congrats, you're more informed than a surprisingly percentage of that market.

03-31-2016 , 04:20 PM

#384

domer2

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Be very careful playing the poll markets, people that trade it have early access to some polls on Obama's approval ratings.

04-01-2016 , 09:23 AM

#385

mmbt0ne

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Quote:

Originally Posted by maxtower

Here's my Obama approval screen shot. Negative Risk = $9.99!

So, wouldn't the 10% fee on profits assigned at the share-level wipe out a lot of your gains in most situations here?

04-01-2016 , 09:40 AM

#386

domer2

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the risk number takes into account the fees

04-01-2016 , 11:59 AM

#387

mmbt0ne

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Ahh, gotcha. Thanks

04-01-2016 , 01:40 PM

#388

maxtower

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Paul Ryan continues marching forward. Went short too early, dang!

04-01-2016 , 01:42 PM

#389

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mmbt0ne

So, wouldn't the 10% fee on profits assigned at the share-level wipe out a lot of your gains in most situations here?

Considering the time, effort, and risk to get these positions filled, it's not really worth it to go after these markets, but I consider it a game.

04-01-2016 , 01:47 PM

#390

goofyballer

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I've been following (but not trading) the Obama approval market the last couple days - apparently this morning, in advance of the Gallup daily number coming out and with (I think, I'm gathering this through old comments) the current average in B3 territory, people started buying up B4, which made people think the insiders that get data early were doing it before Gallup sent the average into B4 territory.

So, B4 got up in the 90s, then Gallup came out at 49 and it went to 90% B3.

Jesus.

04-01-2016 , 02:10 PM

#391

goofyballer

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Hilldog yes/Sanders no in NY seems like a good bet in the mid 70s

04-01-2016 , 02:28 PM

#392

domer2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

i did some follow-up and gallup numbers are available 30 minutes early if you pay their $1200 annual fee (or something like that) or have access through a university or whatever

04-01-2016 , 03:06 PM

#393

iron81

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Quote:

Your risk in this market: ($40.62)

weeee

04-01-2016 , 04:17 PM

#394

mmbt0ne

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goofy,

Yeah, that's about right. I try to get out of Obama markets by noon on Friday so I can avoid as many shenanigans as possible.

Got a nice mini-arb earlier in the day when 3/4 were trading at a combined 86¢ even though it was damn near certain the results would be one of those 2 brackets. Sold them just before noon for an effective combined $1.01 and gtfo.

04-01-2016 , 04:59 PM

#395

beansroast01

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Hilldog yes/Sanders no in NY seems like a good bet in the mid 70s

Thats probably going to get even higher over the next couple weeks I'd imagine, unless you are banking on a bad poll coming out.

04-01-2016 , 05:03 PM

#396

goofyballer

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It was like 90/10 before and has been steadily going down because who knows why, I guess because of Berniementum in Wisconsin, still feels like he can never win NY unless he's just gonna up and trounce Hillary in all remaining primaries...right?

04-01-2016 , 05:24 PM

#397

microbet

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A few other mid-atlantic states could be slightly worse for Bernie than NY.

04-01-2016 , 08:05 PM

#398

rollert22

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Quote:

Originally Posted by maxtower

I guess Rubio wasn't in the race at the time, but Kasich didn't win any PA border counties in Ohio.

I have no idea what will happen in PA, but I assume the pro-Kasich theory is that he's gonna crush the Philly suburbs, and not necessarily western PA.

04-01-2016 , 08:09 PM

#399

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by rollert22

I have no idea what will happen in PA, but I assume the pro-Kasich theory is that he's gonna crush the Philly suburbs, and not necessarily western PA.

Why wouldn't western PA align more closely with Ohio results? Philly identifies more closely with NY/NJ right ?