Betting on Elections thread - Page 15 - Politics and Economics

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Page 15 of 112

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03-30-2016 , 02:37 PM

#351

beansroast01

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LOL ****.

03-30-2016 , 02:40 PM

#352

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by maxtower

Paul Ryan RNOM16 keeps moving up. So weird. He has moved up a little on both betfair and predictit in the last couple days.

Trump faltering = RYANMENTUM (KASICHMENTUM seems to be dying everywhere except PA)

03-30-2016 , 02:48 PM

#353

goofyballer

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With just over 26 hours to go, the "Will Yatsenyuk still be PM of Ukraine" market is still trading only in the 80s. I don't have any shares but it's still endlessly fascinating to look at.

03-30-2016 , 03:12 PM

#354

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

With just over 26 hours to go, the "Will Yatsenyuk still be PM of Ukraine" market is still trading only in the 80s. I don't have any shares but it's still endlessly fascinating to look at.

Yeah, this one was swingy, probably decent money to be made if you had any understanding of Ukranian politics, language and news sources.

03-30-2016 , 03:15 PM

#355

domer2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

With just over 26 hours to go, the "Will Yatsenyuk still be PM of Ukraine" market is still trading only in the 80s. I don't have any shares but it's still endlessly fascinating to look at.

I have 3k NO shares at an average price of 9. I've been following this super closely, and am up like $300 from trading it the past 48 hours, so my NOs are a free-roll.

A vote tomorrow sounds like a strong possibility from everything I am reading.

In other news, the Wisconsin poll leaked early. That was fun trading that.

Looks like Trump is a very large underdog to get to 1237 from pledged delegates (assuming he only gets 3 or 6 delegates in Wisconsin), and his chances of being the nominee have plummeted in the past week.

03-30-2016 , 03:16 PM

#356

adanthar

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Trump faltering = RYANMENTUM (KASICHMENTUM seems to be dying everywhere except PA)

Still no chance in hell for anyone not named Trump/Cruz. I think it's something like 85/15 now, 80/20 if Cruz wins WI big, 95/5 if Cruz loses.

03-30-2016 , 03:16 PM

#357

iron81

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It ain't a freeroll until you sell $300 or so worth.

03-30-2016 , 03:20 PM

#358

domer2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

It ain't a freeroll until you sell $300 or so worth.

I've banked $300, mostly betting on YES. Now I'm betting on NO and only have $270 at risk.

03-30-2016 , 03:22 PM

#359

domer2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

Still no chance in hell for anyone not named Trump/Cruz. I think it's something like 85/15 now, 80/20 if Cruz wins WI big, 95/5 if Cruz loses.

You really need to be careful, Trump is on the precipice here.

If he doesn't get to within spitting distance of 1237, he'll be drawing absolutely dead in Cleveland.

03-30-2016 , 03:45 PM

#360

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

Still no chance in hell for anyone not named Trump/Cruz. I think it's something like 85/15 now, 80/20 if Cruz wins WI big, 95/5 if Cruz loses.

Oh for sure, if I had more money on PI I would be buying tons of Ryan No, as it stands I'm already heavily invested in Kasich No

03-30-2016 , 03:54 PM

#361

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Oh for sure, if I had more money on PI I would be buying tons of Ryan No, as it stands I'm already heavily invested in Kasich No

I'm all in on Ryan NO and have a position on Kasich NO.

In other news I saw someone on there had $30 in negative risk in a market. I am trying to get there, but it's hard.

So far:
"Your risk in this market: ($3.86)"

03-30-2016 , 03:56 PM

#362

adanthar

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Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

You really need to be careful, Trump is on the precipice here.

If he doesn't get to within spitting distance of 1237, he'll be drawing absolutely dead in Cleveland.

I've bet on/hedged Cruz enough along the way that I'll be fine no matter what. The time to sell Trump will be April 27th IMO.

03-30-2016 , 04:04 PM

#363

domer2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Oh for sure, if I had more money on PI I would be buying tons of Ryan No, as it stands I'm already heavily invested in Kasich No

if you already have No shares in Kasich, other No shares in a linked market will cost you nothing (in fact, they'll put cash in your account).

the market is linked for shorting purposes

03-30-2016 , 04:09 PM

#364

goofyballer

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Oh, right, I forgot! HERE I COME PAUL RYAN

03-31-2016 , 12:08 PM

#365

microbet

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Kasich seems like a good buy at $.23 in PA.

03-31-2016 , 12:24 PM

#366

goofyballer

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Any updates in PA besides that one poll that showed him doing well?

lolol Paul Ryan up to 14.

03-31-2016 , 01:39 PM

#367

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by microbet

Kasich seems like a good buy at $.23 in PA.

I guess Rubio wasn't in the race at the time, but Kasich didn't win any PA border counties in Ohio.

03-31-2016 , 02:02 PM

#368

beansroast01

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Cashed out Bern WI and got in WI MOV +5 market (yes obv). Think he wins by 10 quite easily. Still 5 days left before the primary

03-31-2016 , 02:16 PM

#369

mmbt0ne

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Anyone play the Obama approval ratings market? Because holy **** market moves.

I'll probably end up 10-15% up this week across all the buys/sells but doesn't feel like it's worth the time and effort.

03-31-2016 , 02:27 PM

#370

goofyballer

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Is there rhyme or reason to when RCP updates the start date for their rolling average period on the Obama approval market? How fast do the swings take when a new poll comes out?

Seems like it could be fun.

03-31-2016 , 02:38 PM

#371

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mmbt0ne

I play it every week as a trader, not really picking sides.

03-31-2016 , 02:41 PM

#372

goofyballer

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Seems like there are some intricacies specific to that market I'd have to learn first, though.

Like, right now the average is at 48.9, any poll higher than that which doesn't wipe out a previous good poll (seems unlikely based on which current polls are 49+ and release frequently enough that a newer one could come out) sends it into the 49.0-49.4 bracket. Despite that, the 49+ bracket is dead and sinking, while the under 48.5 bracket is still at 20. Why? Without understanding that I'd be lighting money on fire trying to play there, I imagine.

03-31-2016 , 02:48 PM

#373

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Yeah, I think the first couple steps would be to
1. figure out a rough schedule for the various pollsters
2. figure out how soon RCP updates their average with a new poll
3. figure out RCP's replacement algorithm when a new poll comes in.