Say Trump doesn't get to 1237...which seems likely, no?

I feel like it's a lock he's shut out by GOP so his only option is to run as 3rd party, but is that even a viable option that late in the game?

If he's within 100 or so after the last primary, he seems pretty likely to woo 100 or so of the uncommitted delegates and get there on the first ballot.

No, definitely not a lock. Trump will more than likely get the nomination.

Given the large number of uncommitted delegates, I think his magic number is around 1150 to have a shot, and more realistically he'll need around 1175 to feel comfortable. Delegates in general are not fertile ground for Trump support. They're often well educated, upper middle class, and party loyalists. This is like ground zero for Trump hatred.

Everyone seems fairly convinced he'll run 3rd party if he isn't nominated (and the implied odds of this happening are over 50%), but I just don't see it. Incredibly expensive and impossible to get on many ballots. Is he going to self-fund a $250m Presidential campaign? On the flip side, he loves attention, and he doesn't exactly behave logically. So who knows. 50% seems too high, though. I think he'll do like he did with his previous Presidential dalliances and flirt with running third party for a month, soaking up the media attention, and then decide against it. That way he's never branded a loser (in his mind) and can always say that the GOP stole the election from him, he easily woulda beat Hillary, etc. etc.

That said, if Trump is unable to secure a majority between the last primary and the convention and we legitimately have to go to a second ballot, then we're probably in the middle of Operation Rat****.

Agreed with all of this. I put the # of delegates line a little lower but the exact breakpoint doesn't really matter yet. And yes, if there is an actual ballot that Trump doesn't win, he loses support for all subsequent votes and Cruz rolls.

We will know whether Cruz thinks he has it based on what the rules committee tries to do with Rubio/Kasich delegates.

Adanthar, it seems you're saying that Trump+Cruz has this thing locked up. The pair is trading right now for 83% on Predictit. Should be a lot of value buying both there. Seems like there is some value in just Trump @ 64%. Cruz is not in the top 2 for any April primary spread on Predictit right now. How many delegates does Cruz need to walk into the convention with to lock up a steal ?

gotta do your own homework at *some* point

Out on TRUMP at 10% loss, rolled all of it over to Cruz at 65¢. It feels like most of these primary markets should be ~50/50 or ~90/10, and I'm surprised the markets don't move between those extremes faster.

PSA: Paul Ryan prices on Predictit for RNOM16 are the same as Kasich, 9c.

Seems like free money to me, not sure if it's worth reloading another 850 though.

Including the cashout fee when it resolves, your $850 deposit to bet entirely on Ryan at .08 (as of this writing, Ryan No costs $0.92) will net you a cool $15.64, or under 2%. Meh.

In a few hours there's a hearing to replace Yatsenyuk as Ukraine's PM, or form a new government coalition, or something, nobody's entirely sure because it's Ukraine but that market has been ****ing nuts. If you're in need of some late night entertainment it might be worth jamming F5 over here starting in a couple hours, I'll be asleep. I managed to sell my No position at 0.89 about four hours ago, an hour later based on zero change in available information (middle of the night Ukraine time) it was down to 0.67 again, currently 50/50.

Yeah, probably not worth reloading. I've got a Bid on at 91c to fill up.

Damn, now I am going to be up all night.

78k in volume yesterday, for a market whose total shares number only a third of that. I spent most of the time I held shares in this market feeling tortured by it, but looking back, I've never felt more alive.

Candle grafs > Line grafs

Saw a site (nitro) with Cruz nomination moneyline +2500 (3.8%) , I know Cruz's chances are low but isnt this a bit too low?

He's 20% on Predictit, seems like free money. Sure you aren't looking at Presidency odds ?

oops nevermind its for NY primary winner

So this is kind of interesting.
https://disqus.com/by/predictit-6b50...7ee9371676b3a/

Opinion Savvy who I think is a real pollster is offering a deal on predictit where they will let you pay $10 to get first looks at an upcoming Wisconsin poll. Thoughts ?

This is very cool and good

I signed up, no obligation until the poll is ready. Would be interesting if prediction markets start driving better and more polling.

I feel like it would be more useful if the poll WAS released publicly, but some amount of time after traders received it.

Well, they are planning to release it the day of the election, so results will come in soon enough after that.

Paul Ryan RNOM16 keeps moving up. So weird. He has moved up a little on both betfair and predictit in the last couple days.

There was some dude elsewhere on the forum who said he saw Ryan in SC and he got the impression Ryan was campaigning, though he was obv way too vague for anyone to run a story on it.

Quoted before you can delete, though you wouldn't be the first to make WWE analogies this cycle.