You're basically betting on the old man dying.

I had a bid out on this market for 95c and someone bought them all last night!

New poll today showing Cruz up 5 in Wisconsin, market gives zero ****s, this is so funny (but I have no idea how to trade it)

Actually in the last hour this swung from 2c to 17c and back. That's when my bids were picked up. What news did I miss ?

I bet trump +1200 to win it all way back when

Selling after NY might be a good idea.

I'll buy it from you at -200 odds if you're interested

I made the alternate bet as goofy on Wisconsin and got TRUMP in the 40s. It's going bananas right now and I'm just trying to snap up some Cruz < 50 here and there to lock in a full hedge.

I sold my Cruz shares this morning for the same as I bought them (also unloaded Kasich No, which is a shame, that was such a lock at 90 but the Cruz stuff was starting to fuel KASICHMENTUM in the WI market), decided to join you and went in on Trump at 47. With even CNN talking about it now, seems like the story has enough legs that it won't go away in the near future.

I recall Kasich No for RNOM16 being at like 94-95 recently but it's back to 91 today, lol, free money if you don't mind it being tied up until July.

Just to be clear, for betting purposes, whether this is true or false makes almost no difference.

Like, I'm in the this is real camp, but either way, guess what the only thing anyone will talk about this week is?

It does matter for the purposes of the actual Wisconsin primary, by which point this story will mean nothing if it's still all smoke and polling suggests Cruz has a pretty good chance of winning in that case.

But yeah, short term, 100%.

the odds of this being true seem vanishingly small, especially considering the likely original source of the story and the fact that this story has been "out there" for 2 months and it hasn't run anywhere except the enquirer.

I need to stop betting on news that's 4 hours old.

WI market has rebounded to 56/44/6 Cruz/Trump/Kasich putting me a 1 cent in the negative. Hoping for a good news cycle through the Sunday shows or ducking out.

it's only $10 to win $120.. but isn't it dead money mostly cuz billary is going to slaughter him? I wish I woulda bet him just to win the GOP instead of national election

That's why I was suggesting you might want to hedge, because right now he's not a favorite to win the general. For $10, I'd probably just let it ride.

oh thought it was a gop nominee bet

yeah i think he is like 5-10% in the general.

"Your risk in this market: ($0.67)"

Anyone have a guess why Trump.Nom has dropped 5% in the last 5 days? As far as I know, the only unfavorable news was that Cruz hit the WTA threshold in UT. Maybe because Cruz's rat****ing plans leaked?

Cruz is polling ahead in Wisconsin which would be massive and Cruz has had good news in behind the scenes delegates/rules committee stuff although I doubt that's moving the market much.

Cruz is flat for that period, Kasich is up 2, Ryan is up 2.

//sex scandal aside//

Cruz has confirmed stolen most of the delegates in LA and is about to steal SC's. Not news to anyone paying attention but it's starting to hit the tier 1-2 outlets. (Again, this only matters if Trump isn't overly close by whatever definition of close you want to use).

Wisconsin isn't that important for Trump. It's a must win for Cruz to do anything at all, but even getting shut out (won't happen) drops Trump to ~1200 on average. More important for Cruz is whether he can compete at all anywhere in NY or the Northeast. We know Trump will get at least +150 on the month so that's a really tough ask.

Another pro tip: the state that matters the least in April is PA, because it's almost a foregone conclusion Cruz steals 40+ of the unbound 54 no matter what.

Cruz "stealing delegates" just means that he's getting people on his side for ballots after the 1st, right?

Mostly yes, but the PA delegates mentioned are unbound and can vote Cruz on the 1st ballot.

If Trump doesn't get 1237 on the first ballot, I'd say somewhere between 25-50% of Trump's delegates will abandon him in subsequent ballots, where possible (some states, the delegates can't ever leave or not until many ballots).

So you're essentially locked in to a Not Trump in that scenario. 1237 on the first ballot or bust for Trump.