Trump, and it isn't close.

That's not the same as popularity.

What's your definition of popularity? I interpreted it as "who is being talked about the most". Google Trends shows who people are the internet and searching about, indicating an interest in said person. Also it's clear that the media shows more coverage on Trump than Hillary and Bernie as well, and since the purpose of the news is to draw in viewers and boost ratings, you can infer that Trump is the most popular candidate. If he wasn't, they wouldn't give him airtime.

Now if the question is "which candidate is being bet on the most?" Then I'm not sure what the answer is. This is a betting thread so maybe that's what he was asking, and if so, i misinterpreted the question.

popularity implies being well-liked, admired, and supported imo

so not Trump

You're right. It turns out I didn't know the definition of the word popular. In that case, I would say Bernie Sanders, since he has the highest favorability rating of the 3. I know that favorability =/= popularity, but I assume they are highly correlated. (source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...bility-ratings)

I made the mistake of taking a whirl in the "Will Yatsenyuk survive March" market when I signed up for PI. Never again, it's a nightmare of poor liquidity and no/unreliable news sources.

Anyone tried the weekly Obama job approval market? Seems like the closest thing to horse racing available.

Yeah the problem with this is that there is a 5% cashout fee. So you can't put money on, win your bet and then pull money off since you're only going to win 5%. You have to continue to roll your bets over until the cashout fee is minimized. I am not sure how many bets will be available after primary season, so it might be hard to roll all those $850 bets over a few times.

You're certainly going to be at a disadvantage to Ukrainian speakers on that market since they'll have the best access to news.

Kasich PA No is down to 70 cents, is this all off that one poll? Tempting to buy, but 538's forecast also has him at 28% to win.

They also show Hilldog and Cruz both around 80% to win WI, when both of their markets are about 50/50 (Cruz is 60/40 over Trump). Dunno which is more likely to be off.

I don't think 538 forecasts are very good when there aren't at least a few recent polls. With just one poll in some of these states it can be off.

Just about every NE primary market right now outside the big ones (RI, CT, MD, DE) are, like, Trump 75/Kasich 15. I guess the market thinks KASICHMENTUM is real

Fast forward to Cleveland, first ballot results are in:

Trump 1170
Cruz 880
Kasich 300
Other 200

Nobody has a majority.

What do the odds then become of the GOP nominee? Seems like Trump would be a big underdog, no?

PredictIt running margin of victory markets now. One of the first two is for WA on the dem side and is only 10 points, lol. Maybe if the margin was 40-50pts it would be a decent market

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2...ge-points#data

Seems weird that the first GOP one they opened up is in what the market is currently predicting to be a more competitive state than NY, and with a later primary date

A warning to people who are in the Bernie HI "caucus" market: the Hawaii "caucus" isn't really a caucus, it's a "presidential preference ballot" which is secret ballot. It's more similar to Utah, and isn't like WA or AK. There won't be a period where people are sitting down and discussing the candidates. Not that this seemed to hurt Bernie in UT, but just something to keep in mind.

I'm in the Hillary HI "caucus" market

Nice

When Bernie massively crushes by 60 points in WA do you think the mid-Atlantic numbers will move a lot? IE buy them now at like $.09 and sell right after WA.

Probably not, but they won't go down either so you may as well try.

While the PI comment sections are generally awful IME, the Wisconsin GOP market is currently going bonkers trying to figure out if the National Enquirer story about Ted's affairs are true with some pretty hilarious comments and it's moved like 10 points towards TRUMP.



**** it, I'll throw down on Cruz overnight and if this blows up into a huge story it'll totally be worth the $$

Now PredicIt released a market "Will Sanders drop out by the end of March?"

March. As in 6 days from now. With the only states between now and then 3 states in which he is not only favored to gain delegates, but a substantial amount of delegates. PredictIt just trolling people at this point.

betfair markets had not moved at all






now they have

That's seriously the news that moved the WI Market?

Not that screenshot specifically, but the enquirer stuff and other media outlets starting to talk about it. Look at the comments, it's all people have been talking about.

Ryan up to 7 cents to win nom off the news