UT and ID had to be the most mispriced markets on PredictIt ever. Was able to buy shares at 75cents 3 days before a state Sanders won by over 50% of the vote.

Looking forward I don't see any value in betting Sanders anywhere. You could always take free money on a state like WA/WY/AK but there's almost no point unless you have tens of thousands of dollars on PredictIt and don't mind sticking $1700 into those markets to make a small amount of money.

HI surged today as expected based on Sanders doing well in the caucuses, but I'm weary of entering that market at 70c. I don't know anything about the demographic of Hawai'i or how they vote. He could be a value play there, but I just don't know enough to enter that one.

Wisconsin probably looks the most tempting at 79c, but I think it might dip a bit lower by tomorrow afternoon.

New York is too high for me right now for Sanders. I want to believe he improves his chances significantly by holding a 50k person rally Friday in Seattle (same day as the reg. deadline for new voters in NY), and then maybe a 100k+ person rally in NYC a day or two before the election, but combating against him is the ridiculous deadline (October of last year) to change affiliation to democrat to vote in the NY primary. Feels like NY should be around 8-10 cents at best. I -do- think that there is a lot of value to be made in the NY market if you buy Sanders yes when it drops to around 10 cents or so, because the prices will get pumped up as he does well these next few weeks. Just sell for a profit before NY actually votes and then freeroll your remaining shares would be my play there.

The gap has moved to 9%, I guess once PI closed out all the Tuesday primaries the smart money moved in.

Down to around 60 cents now off an Emerson poll showing Hillary up 6 if you want to get in.

damn that dip didnt last long at all -\ back to nearly 70c now

I keep wanting to load up on "Kasich no" basically everywhere possible, but unless I go all in on "**** it, let's put 5 grand on PredictIt" it's hard to justify locking up the funds I do have on a relatively small margin market all the way until July. I wonder if the inflated prices are due to a lot of other people feeling similarly.

Like, you can actually purchase Romney/Ryan No for the low prices of 96/95 cents respectively. What a world.

Got in at 65c for Wisconsin - ugh, now its back down to 60c. I suck at timing the market.

How much are the Bernie markets driven by pro-Bernie wishcasting, generally? It seems bizarre that he should be so high in WI right now.

There's almost 10 days between WI and the Saturday states, and WI votes on it's own that day - plenty of time to focus heavily on it for Bernie both with rallies and with ads. WI has same day registration and open primaries. Very small early voting windows. Demographics. Nearly every pro-Sanders checkbox is checked here.

Well you can only bet $850 on Kasich no anyway. I have as much money on PI as I am comfortable with right now, and I like betting on the earlier elections so I haven't been pounding these long term ones as much. It's better to pick up 2c each week than 5c three months from now on Kasich.

I got what I could on WI at $.58.

For who? Hilldog and Bernie are both above 0.50 now. What a weird market.

Because the juice is 10%, the spread has to be 5c for a arbitrageur to make money on a 50/50 market.

I know, I meant the swings. Hilldog went from like 0.40 near the start -> 0.20 last night -> 0.50 now over the times I've looked.

Was that Adanthar who was suggesting buying Cruz.Nom a couple days ago? He swung down .03 on the AZ news last night and has since added .04 due to Utah and whatever else has happened since then.

The WI market is nuts.

I think Adanthar only explicitly said to short everyone except Cruz or Trump. I don't think he came right out and said short Cruz and I don't want to speak for him, but he seems to think Trump will get there.

I'm a homer. Bernie.

I try to be objective in my GOP bets.

KASICHMENTUM???

This poll (Trump 33, Kasich 30 in PA) has sent the PA.R market into complete turmoil, Kasich went from like 7 to 20, Trump from 90 to 70.

Kasich was trading above .35 around an hour ago after the poll first came out.

I can't believe he's in Wisconsin instead of parking himself in New York and PA while Trump&Cruz are busy fighting. He needs a massive day on April 26 to be a player at the convention

What did I read about Kasich not even being on the PA ballot ? Did that get resolved?

Nobody challenged it until after the deadline I think. He's on the ballot.

Honestly I think Wisconsin is easier territory for him, NY and PA are in the TRUMP belt.

I'm not on PI (might be a mistake, you guys are getting ridiculous value out of nowhere all of a sudden) but if I were I'd just pile in $850 on every lock until I ran out of contracts to do it on. That includes shorting Kasich, Ryan, Romney and every other non-starter.

Keep in mind, though, that with the trading fee a bunch of these are losers.

Upstate ny is trumpers galore

Taking an informal poll: Who do you think is the more popular candidate out of Trump, Sanders, or Clinton?