Yes 226-249 would be some result for Labour, but I think the lower band 200-225 has a much higher chance of happening.

The 200-249 price has come in over night. On Betfair exchange its now 11/2, still 7/1 on Coral though (don't tell the arbers).

gl getting more than a tenner on with Coral, their fish-only policy is even worse than bet365s

Anyone have some insight on Ossoff-Handel? Been a virtual coin flip for a couple weeks now.

I haven't seen polling data that I trust, but my gut tells me Handel has an edge, mainly because I am skeptical that voters in Georgia will turn out in large numbers in an off-cycle election just to punish a random Republican for Trump's idiocy. In other words, I suspect that Ossoff pumpers are overestimating the Trump effect.

Makes some sense, I'm surprised it has yet to move in either direction as we get closer. Flat lining as bettors struggle to quantify how toxic (or not) the president is right now.

It's been moving in Osoff's direction a little bit with all the scandals. I bought a little Handel stock a while ago purely as a life hedge.

Quist has moved a lot. I bought some stock when he was at .08, sold at .16 and am kicking myself seeing he was at .33 last I checked. He's been running pretty hard on the AHCA vote.

New poll from surveyusa (one of the highest rated pollsters by 538) has Ossoff up 7. Seems pretty huge. Especially considering how sketchy most of the other polling has been.

What do you think about backing 'No Overall Majority' at odds of 10.5 on Betfair? I seriously doubt Labour will win, but May has attacked pensioners, u-turned on social care and had a car crash interview. Labour's leaked manifesto got positive attention and went viral. They have gained in the polls and the Tory majority is only 12 seats.

Maybe I'm completely wrong, but odds of 10.5 seem pretty good for this to happen. What do you reckon? Of course, anything could change before June 8th and maybe it's best to wait for the time being.

IMHO it's too far to catch up in such a short time but those odds are good. I wouldn't take either side of that really.

I think Andrew Neill had a big impact on the Brexit vote because he exposed every remain person who went on day in day out - but I think not enough floating voters will have watched this single interview.

Also part of Labour's recent gains are at the expense of the Lib Dems, which doesn't really help as much in terms of taking seats off the Tories.

The odds shifted dramatically towards Labour yesterday and have now plumetted back down after the terror attack.

There is no real plausible way for Corbyn to win now. I'd close any position you have.

How does this terror attack destroy Labour's chances? Is it because Corbyn is viewed as a terrorist sympathiser?

There has been an effective smear campaign implying he is.

Additionally even if he wasn't, the public wants blood in situations like this, Corbyn is too much of a peacenik.

The only possibility that this doesn't damage Labour is if UKIP (who've been running on Islamophobia since Brexit) benefits at the Tory's expense-but UKIP's new leader is so uninspiring I can't see that happening.

How much movement in the Montana race since the body slam?

All that said some astonishing new polls. One shows leader 8 points behind, but conducted before the bombing.
This is really amazing though: a poll for the Times has Labour 5 points behind.
This was conducted after the bombing.

My guess would be that Labour will still fall away after the papers lock their teeth into Corbyn on terror, if indeed this isn't just an outlier. Nonetheless a very surprising poll indeed.
If Labour were to lose by "only" 5% that would have major implications for politics in this country and abroad.

On predictit, Quist went from ~$0.20 to over $0.50, but is now back down around $0.30.

200-225 Seats is now near 3/1 so it was value at the time.

One more bet I think everyone should get on the UK election is on constituency betting.

Harrow West - Labour Party to win @ 3/1 (7/2 at Ladbrokes)
This is more of a 50/50 race between Labour and Tories. When Labour were polling at around 30% they still had a pretty good lead in London, after the surge I can't see it being lower than it was in the 2015 General Election. However, Harrow is a slightly strange place when it comes to the Tories, in the London assembly elections 2016 (with slightly different voting area and more tory area's) the Conservative vote went up when in the rest of London it pretty much all went down.

Would pretty much take labour down to 2/1.

How big do you think the shy Tory vote will be? In several previous elections, the Tory vote has been underestimated by pollsters, including most recently in 2015. Labour also rely a lot on younger voters and they don't usually turn out to vote.

I actually think the pollsters may well overshoot the shy Tory factor this time.

They will have recalibrated the model based on the last election but I'm seeing people in my facebook feed who I would describe as "northern football lads" who are openly saying they are voting Tory for a hard Brexit - so they don't seem that shy.

On the other hand there will be a lot of people voting Tory this time who haven't before, who might therefore be more shy and/or if they didn't vote before then the likely voter model may discount them a bit, which was shown to be incorrect in the Brexit referendum.

Sorry if that's sitting on the fence a bit.

I don't think anyone knows - but to me this seems a sensible ( and non partisan) summary

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7760951.html



Conclusion is "The pollsters have adjusted for their miss last time, but if they miss again it is still more likely to be by overestimating Labour and underestimating the Conservatives."

Some of the polls have adjusted more than others and I suspect the ones that have adjusted less have not adjusted enough.

Yes they don't, but Labour have got a lot of new members. You would think that would translate into some uptick in voting. It really depends on whether young people are more enthused by Corbyn than they were Milliband. I think the young feel (correctly) that the traditional parties don't give a toss about them-possibly Corbyn has changed that. It is only a possibility-but with betting a small shift in %'s matters a great deal.

It is worth out pointing out that there was in previous elections a shy Labour effect under Blair. Since Blair was at the opposite end of the political spectrum you'd think that wouldn't happen with Corbyn-but it is difficult to say. Corbyn has been dragged through the mud so much it may be that people are ashamed to admit supporting him, thinking people will assume they are a terrorist or something.

Granted that Labour have a lot of new members, however this number is tiny as a % of the population.

I fear that some polls have got this seriously wrong again and fully expect to see a big gain in seats for the Conservatives.

RE: the polls. As far as I can see, ICM are going on the theory that people's reported likelihood of voting isn't that reliable and you should weight demographic groups based on how likely as a whole such groups have been to vote in the past.

This theory would have worked in 2010 when a lot of young people said they were definitely going to vote Lib Dem and then didn't vote (in the light of later events that may have been a mass premonition on their part of course).

Question is, will it work now? If you think so then ICM's polls are the ones to look at, showing a large Tory lead, whereas if not then go with the the other polls which assume young people who say they are going vote actually will.

So it's just a complete toss up as to whether young people will actually turn out to vote? Great. What about older voters, do you think there will be a shift to Labour after things like the dementia tax and cuts to social care?

Anecdotally I'm seeing a lot of 30yo+ working class locals deserting Labour and ranting about Tories being the only party who will deliver what they want from Brexit (which is basically diebitter's incoherent Daily Mail-inspired "anti-bureaucracy" position as seen in the UK politarding thread). It won't make a jot of difference in my home constituency which is safe Labour, but the passionate Brexit voters shifting heavily to the Tories is going to be decisive nationwide.

Places like Chester that went marginally Labour at the last election will be easy Tory gains this time round, because so many people DGAF about economic policy and just want to see the "faceless Brussels bureacrats" and a good number of Poles / Muslamics given the finger.

I suspect a lot of the apparent Labour support just won't turn out, whereas the Tories look to have picked up millions of enthusiastic new voters by hoovering up the UKIP clowns. Hope I'm wrong!

anywhere have odds on ossoff vs handel in GA?