Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiTabling
Thanks for your analysis. Do you know if France is a liberal or conservative country, generally speaking? And is there strong support for "Frexit" among France's population?
"She will probably still lose" Are you basing that purely on polling, or other reasons as well?
On what basis are they 'notoriously good quality'?
Are you betting against Le Pen because you have a liberal bias? I ask because there is a clear left wing/liberal bias in this forum - this was abundantly clear during the US election and it still persists even now. So I need to know if you are letting this bias affect your betting decision. Thanks.
I'll answer some of these as I have some bets riding on the French election as well.
Regardless of whether France is a Conservative or Liberal (more leaning to Liberal) they are definitely not Le Pen's version of right wing Nationalism and unless 50% of the country is then she's dead in the water. With these type of candidates your either 100% with them or against them. There's not many people who will back Macron or Fillon (or the other candidates) and then back Le Pen in the second round. It's will also be the same generally for Le Pen voters if she doesn't make the second round there voters are unlikely to vote for anyone (spoil the ballot).
On your Frexit point, support for leaving the EU has steadily declined in EU Countries after Brexit (Polling). Also Le Pen isn't even saying that she knows the massive headache it will be for her to make it happen and would probably would prefer if President to do something less drastic like to get rid of the Euro and would probably be supported when/if the next recession is.
Last point, if you want to make money from political betting you don't do it to support your point of views. There's literally 0 point of doing that and assuming that is just wrong. Many people bet against Trump because all the info polling + early voting info concluded that he was doing terribly. However, he is a swerveball and a one of a kind candidate. Le Pen on the other hand ran in the last Presidential elections so most things are already known about what people think of her and how voters are likely to behave in the second round of voting when it comes to Le Pen.