Betting on Elections thread - Page 106 - Politics and Economics

Well you may be right but polls have to be massively off for them to get close to winning a seat - I'm struggling to find any seats where they are projected to even come second. And they were struggling to hold any council seats at the locals and national polls have dipped since then.

Looks like you were right-and it doesn't look like you were lucky either. It is a bloodbath for UKIP.

06-08-2017 , 09:31 PM

#2627

MultiTabling

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by LostOstrich

the fact that I bet tories >400 seats was the clincher for you I think. You arguably owe me a drink.

How was that a clincher? I wasn't just betting on the opposite of what you bet on.

Last edited by MultiTabling; 06-08-2017 at 09:38 PM.

06-09-2017 , 02:44 AM

#2628

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

I've just bet some "No" on EU in/out membership before 2019.

The odds were 1.96 though it's not available now.

06-09-2017 , 03:11 AM

#2629

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Betfair have UK Brexit date Jan-Mar 2019 at 2.00 (evens) with 4K pounds of volume available.

It requires all 28 countries to agree any change from that.

06-09-2017 , 03:51 AM

#2630

MultiTabling

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,849

Looks a good bet. But I don't like waiting 2 years for that.

My 2 bets won (technically Lib Dem bet hasn't won yet, but they won't get 18 seats). If only I had the guts to follow through on the No Overall Majority bet.

Last edited by MultiTabling; 06-09-2017 at 03:57 AM.

06-09-2017 , 03:55 AM

#2631

LektorAJ

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Well the theory is to close it out at around 1.2 or something when it all settles down again, but it's not necessarily going to be that simple.

I nearly got burnt with the result. After Newcastle and Sunderland I bet on Tory majority at 1.63 and after Swindon North I closed it out at 2.08 (so I had a negative freeroll that i would lose if Tories got overall majority or break even if NOC which happened).

06-09-2017 , 04:02 AM

#2632

MultiTabling

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,849

Yes I saw that odds for Conservatives Majority dropped when those first few results came in. People still thought Tories would outperform their exit poll, like they did in 2015, and get a majority.

It feels like a win when you cash out a bet that ultimately loses - even if you do lose a bit, you could have lost a whole lot more.

06-09-2017 , 04:47 AM

#2633

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Well especially this time as I was break even, it was an over-cash-out if that's a thing. I laid the Tory majority for higher odds than I'd got in at but for the same stake - so I had to fade the majority but with the result that happened I was fine.

06-09-2017 , 04:49 AM

#2634

GBV

banned

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,331

Damn this election was frustrating.

I thought there was a good chance Labour would over-perform but couldn't find a value bet to reflect that.

06-09-2017 , 05:12 AM

#2635

Csaba

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,131

It was quite interesting watching how the odds moved. Conservative majority odds came in to around 1.5 after the first four seats even though Labour won all of them. Conservative majority then went out to > 2.0 after they won the next seat. From what I understand the margin of Labour victory was less than predicted in the exit polls for the first four seats and margin of Conservative victory was less than expected for the fifth seat.

06-09-2017 , 05:19 AM

#2636

GBV

banned

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by Csaba

The first seats to declare were safe labour seats where UKIP had done well last time. The UKIP vote collapsed and went to the Tories softening the effect of a general swing to Labour.

UKIP didn't do that well in many places elsewhere in 2015 so there was nothing to help the Tories in the rest of the country.

This is something to bear in mind for future elections: if there is a conflict between the exit poll and a small regional sample, go with the exit poll. The exit poll is demographically weighted, regional samples are not.

06-09-2017 , 05:19 AM

#2637

MultiTabling

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by LektorAJ

Ok, glad it worked out then.

06-09-2017 , 07:24 AM

#2638

oldgoat

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,972

anyone got a clear lead on Labour popular vote share after Kensington?
under / over 40% is still in play

06-09-2017 , 07:37 AM

#2639

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBV

This is something to bear in mind for future elections: if there is a conflict between the exit poll and a small regional sample, go with the exit poll. The exit poll is demographically weighted, regional samples are not.

This is true. It tends to be Tyne and Wear seats that declare first and they are different in lots of ways.

But in the Brexit referendum those places in the north east declared first with results for leave with margins higher than the models said they would have under the a 50-50 scenario, so they were the first clue that the polling was off.

06-09-2017 , 07:53 AM

#2640

JudgeHoldem

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 8,197

last i saw handel -140 ossoff +100

06-09-2017 , 08:50 AM

#2641

oldgoat

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,972

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoat

anyone got a clear lead on Labour popular vote share after Kensington?
under / over 40% is still in play

had to do my sums by hand (from bbc website) but my calc is current Labour share 39.986% which would need nearly 50% in Kensington to push it over the the 40% mark - which is clearly not going to happen
Atm you can still get better than 1.2 on Betfair for under 40%

(Disclaimer- you might want to check my sums before putting money on)

(Times has share at 39.98% Guardian at 39.99) which corroborates my finger counting

Last edited by oldgoat; 06-09-2017 at 09:15 AM.

06-09-2017 , 03:40 PM

#2642

Brussels Sprout

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brussels Sprout

Teresa May getting ripped apart (again) in a town hall style Q&A. Betfair have her at just under 5/1 to not get an overall majority next week.

It was 9/1 the night before the election

06-09-2017 , 03:52 PM

#2643

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

I got matched at 13 to 1 that next PM wouldn't be T May like 6 mins before the exit polls lol

06-10-2017 , 04:11 PM

#2644

Nonfiction

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Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

Quote:

Originally Posted by JudgeHoldem

last i saw handel -140 ossoff +100

Can get ossoff no on predictit for 32¢

06-19-2017 , 09:37 PM

#2645

oscark

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 670

You guys who are actually good at this...any value in Georgia? Handel currently at 52 and Ossoff at 51.

06-19-2017 , 10:58 PM

#2646

m_reed05

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Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 8,611

Quote:

Originally Posted by oscark

You guys who are actually good at this...any value in Georgia? Handel currently at 52 and Ossoff at 51.

I've been in and out of this market but currently have no position. Don't see much edge either way personally. If I was going to do anything I'd play for an overreaction to early votes... buy Ossoff with the intention of selling before e day votes start rolling in.

06-26-2017 , 02:18 PM

#2647

Nonfiction

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Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

1. It's not a treaty, it's an agreement signed by Barack Obama
2. The "unconditional withdrawal" clause refers only to the underlying treaty, the UNFCCC, which Trump did not remove us from or imply that he would
3. Trump has so far made a speech, and that's about it. We have no concrete evidence of formal steps taken to eject us from the agreement.

Market closed, RIP

06-26-2017 , 02:31 PM

#2648

domer2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Nonfiction

Market closed, RIP

Interesting, can't say I agree with that decision.

But I had sold my Nos like a month ago expecting cuckery from some random corner of the government.