Sounds high. Betfair had 5.1 today - if I understand correctly that converts to $0.18.

On that time horizon he really has to just decide he doesn't want to do it, it's much too early to get impeached isn't it even if they wanted to do it?

He's not likely to resign simply because he becomes unpopular in Congress.

He would have to do something unspeakable for the GOP to turn on him before the midterm elections in 2018. They know they can't win if all of his rabid supporters turn on them. And he's not resigning. Most likely reason he wouldn't be president at end of 2017 is death, and that's not very likely either.

That sounds logical, so we are looking at 2019 if at all. Some value in Betfair market then.

"Trump Exit Date"
2017 5.1 or 5.4
2018 4.8 or 5.6
2019 9 or 14
2020 or later 1.78 or 1.9
(the longer odds are bets people want to make we can take the other side of)

Some moves in the Leave before end of 1st term market in the last few hours:
Yes 2.16 or 2.22
No 1.81 or 1.86

Today is right around the 12 month mark for me being on PI

Turned 4k into 134k, and somehow managed to do that while betting against Trump on everything imaginable.

Damn. I should find a way to get an account maybe.

Congrats! You are killing it. I sure wish I would have had the foresight to hold a few thousand Shannons... went for one more flip and the market ran away from me. I started in September and took a big hit on the election. Got bit a couple of times being a little quick on the trigger or chasing losses in polling markets and wound up even at year end (no taxes though!) Pulled in 2.5k in January. Should have been more, but I held my B7's in trump tweets too long.

If only I'd held my Shannons and flipped my trump tweet B7 :P

Would love to hear what have been your best and worst trades & your plan going forward.

Best bet was holding tight to the Tom Shannon bet even as his price rose, had to be a step ahead of that market. Me and another few people (who collectively owned like 80,000 shannon shares) were analyzing cloture rules to death to the point where we knew more than the reporters. Also made quite a bit on the Supreme Court with Obama, had a sizable bet on Merrick Garland to be his pick. The ratings of Trump's convention speech was another big win.

Worst trades were I guess election day in general, I was constantly hedged in 2012, making near equal amounts on both Romney and Obama, and then betting heavily on Obama on election day, but I didn't follow that same path this year, instead just made Clinton bets and let them sit. Did end up recouping some money on election day, but that was a net loss for me. Worst single trade was probably Trump to not win any primaries or caucuses, one of the first trades I made on the site lol, and I maxed it for $850.

any one want to bet on impeachment before the term is up? over 5k, preferably much higher, escrowed.

Which side are you proposing to take and at what odds.

Bear in mind that betting in a foreign currency over a protracted period on a political event is as much a bet on currency fluctuation as it is on the actual event.

Dollars will almost be certainly worth less if Trump is forced out-it suggests things will have gone unbelievably badly. Foreign currencies will be worth more in relative terms.

Pretty sure foreigners aren't allowed, so it's moot

I have my methods.

may be true, but you're gonna run into the IRS wall. if you make more than $600, they require a social security number and issue you a 1099, which is taxable in the US.

Thanks for the heads up. I know some syndicate gamblers and might be able to set something up.

I'm finding it super hard to believe that there will be a confirmation vote on Gorsuch before March 31.

Even if Democrats decide not to filibuster, they can't be seen as rolling over on Gorsuch. And the Democrats would pretty much have to take dive in order for there to be a confirmation vote by March 31.

Money held hostage for 38 days now. Full Tilt 2.0

I started in the tweet market and figured I'd trade number of shares an order or 3 of magnitude lower until I get a feel for it. Lol I'm losing my ass in there. Which only amounts to literally a few bucks but still. Seems like a lot when you're only trading single digit number of shares but it's apparently it's adding up.

SON OF A GODDAMN BITCH THERE GOES ANOTHER 30 CENTS [/tufffish]

Total number of votes? I closed out at .96 as I totally did not want to deal with any drama.

It finally settled a few days ago.

Thoughts on betting against LePen in the French election market ?
https://www.predictit.org/Market/244...France-in-2017

She is currently the favorite, but the moderate vote is very split right now. In a likely run-off they should line up behind anti-LePen.

There is some precedent for this. In 2002 Jean LePen (Marine's father) went to run-off with Chirac, but he only picked up 1% while Chirac picked up around 60%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...election,_2002

She'll do way better than her father (she's not the boogeyman he was, her main opponents have shaky support or huge negatives) but predictit having her at 40% to win is still ridiculously high imo. It looks like people who dont know how French elections work are just expecting all Brexit/Trump events to happen now.

The closest thing to a French prediction market is hypermind (it's just play money but has a decent track record) and it has Le Pen win at 18%. I just bought some.

Predicit has "Will Trump throw out the first pitch on Opening Day?" at 0.30. Seems like good value? I know with Trump anything is possible, but

1. Virtually every president for the last 100 years has done it at least once.

2. Can't imagine Trump would pass up on the opportunity to receive attention.

3. Trump's thrown the (non-opening day) first pitch once before in 2006.

I bought no in the low 50s and sold in the high 60s. I wouldn't touch this. There are very view major league stadiums where Trump would not be at risk of merciless booing. I'm sure he is aware of that fact.

You are betting into information which is widely known and therefore reflected in the price.

If you want to win money then you have to have information the market does not, or process the information better.