Betting on Elections thread - Page 49 - Politics and Economics

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07-29-2016 , 09:06 PM

#1201

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

The site doesn't issue a 1099 or anything like that?

That is what DFS sites do.

American companies probably will, foreign ones probably don't.

07-29-2016 , 09:07 PM

#1202

Zorkman

banned

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 6,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgrimmer44

Just booked a bet on Trump beating Clinton for 100 I am getting 5 to 1 odds. Feels like I am printing money here what do you think guys?

If Nate Silver is to be believed, you just printed $180.20.

(500*.467)-(100*.533)=180.20

Last edited by Zorkman; 07-29-2016 at 09:27 PM. Reason: polls only forecast--the middle of the 3 models

07-29-2016 , 09:12 PM

#1203

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

I believe they do issue 1099s, yes, but wasn't signed up last year...part of this stems from someone saying that they wouldn't issue a 1099 until you withdrew.

07-30-2016 , 01:49 AM

#1204

CarbonIsTheNutLow

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 425

With the dem convention done, seems like most of the interesting things to bet are gonna take months of waiting.

There anything interesting left that isn't particularly niche? I know there's weekly polling bets, but I feel like I'm a fish if I don't put in the effort to learn poll-dropping schedules and RCP posting rules, which I don't really feel like doing. That and it's somewhat of a random gamble to begin with.

07-30-2016 , 09:33 AM

#1205

adanthar

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 20,109

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

I need to figure out the accounting....if I make the bet in 2016 and win the bet in 2016, but don't withdraw a dime until 2017, is that a 2016 taxable event or 2017 taxable event?

I've always done it in this manner as a 2016 event, but I've heard this may be incorrect.

It is very clearly a 2016 event unless you did not have constructive receipt of the money. If they run away with it or delay the cashout for months you could have an argument, but I'm not a tax lawyer etc etc

07-30-2016 , 03:32 PM

#1206

jgrimmer44

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 781

Good to hear I made a decent bet it sounds like, still getting into these kinds of things. I have a friend who is quite sure Clinton will beat Trump and I think it is a toss up. He offered me 5 to 1 for 100 and I snap accepted. Figure Trump has to be winning more than 16.66% of the time.

07-30-2016 , 05:29 PM

#1207

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgrimmer44

You go pretty good odds. You could probably hedge on Predictit easily and win either way

07-30-2016 , 06:33 PM

#1208

goofyballer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 70,719

I made this bet in the Scalia thread when he died:

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

I think the Senate confirming Obama's nominee is a favorite.

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Friendly bet (since obviously we're all just talking out of our asses at this point)? $20, even money? You win if Obama's first nominee is confirmed, I win if not (includes rejection by vote or filibustering/obstruction/etc). Winner can enjoy several junior bacon cheeseburgers courtesy of the loser.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

OK, booked. This is like betting against TRUMP, the entertainment value if it happens is tremendous so it's kind of win/win.

I think I'm a fish for not specifying before the election. Looks increasingly likely Garland does get confirmed but only after (if) Republicans lose in November.

07-30-2016 , 06:55 PM

#1209

awval999

Election Monitor.

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

I think I'm a fish for not specifying before the election. Looks increasingly likely Garland does get confirmed but only after (if) Republicans lose in November.

They for sure confirm Garland in the lame duck if HRC wins.

07-30-2016 , 07:41 PM

#1210

iron81

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Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

The majority of liberals believe Garland's nomination will be withdrawn after the election. I actually think it would be interesting if Hill wins but the GOP retains the Senate.

07-30-2016 , 07:46 PM

#1211

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

Obama really likes Garland, been shortlisted multiple times. Have a hard time believing he would withdraw the man's nomination for political expediency. I don't imagine his name was arrived at lightly.

07-30-2016 , 07:52 PM

#1212

seattlelou

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 31,584

It's possible for the Dems to block the nomination of Hillary requested it. Seems unlikely bit if I was an oddsmaker it is something I would consider.

07-30-2016 , 09:29 PM

#1213

425kid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 10,346

Does Hillary really want to spend her first hundred days fighting through a filibuster and a confirmation process to get a slightly more left leaning judge?

07-30-2016 , 09:34 PM

#1214

maxtower

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by 425kid

Does Hillary really want to spend her first hundred days fighting through a filibuster and a confirmation process to get a slightly more left leaning judge?

She does have some senate equity right ?

07-30-2016 , 09:37 PM

#1215

iron81

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 17,729

Yeah she does, but a filibuster is still likely. Also, there is zero chance of Obama insisting on a Garland hearing but the Senate Dems filibustering.

07-30-2016 , 09:53 PM

#1216

seattlelou

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 31,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

Yeah she does, but a filibuster is still likely. Also, there is zero chance of Obama insisting on a Garland hearing but the Senate Dems filibustering.

You could easily run out the clock procedurally with one dissenter.

08-01-2016 , 02:35 PM

#1217

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

Fwiw you can get "will the senate confirm ANY SCOTUS nominee before Obama leaves office" for 30c, which is currently the same price as "Will the Senate confirm the NEXT SCOTUS nominee before Obama leaves office."

08-02-2016 , 03:06 PM

#1218

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Attn: SenorKeeed, you owe me $100 RE: who will win the GOP nomination.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=2086

In lieu of paying me, I suggest a $100 donation to GiveDirectly:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveDirectly

I will not follow up or chase you around the forums to secure payment. However, if you post proof of your $100 donation (e.g., screenshot), I will post proof of a $100 matching donation from me.

didn't see this, maybe you should have PMed me? Chasing me down isn't necessary, but, uh, maybe do something other than post in a thread I've never posted in?

08-02-2016 , 04:13 PM

#1219

Csaba

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,131

I'm on HRC at 1.48. Not sure how long to hold...

08-02-2016 , 04:48 PM

#1220

LostOstrich

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Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 15,933

I'm on HRC at 1.85 for a decent amount (by my political betting standards at least). Given my history of jinxing every team I ever bet on, I should probably consider laying it off for the good of mankind.

08-03-2016 , 10:05 AM

#1221

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

So its looking more and more likely that trump loses badly. What are the best bets to take advantage of that? Just betting on hillary sucks. Electoral votes market has huge potential returns but having to get the exact range correct really sucks. You can buy "Will the Democratic presidential nominee win at least 370 electoral votes in 2016?" for 31c, or you can get B1 (7c), B2 (8c), and B3 (18c) for 33c in the electoral vote market which gives you 360+.

Really not sure if I like either of those though, 360+ requires Hildawg to win every swing state + like GA/AZ/NC which might be a lil too much.

08-03-2016 , 10:23 AM

#1222

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Honestly gun to head I short that 370 EVs market, although I think it's close to correct. We're talking there about all the swing states, NC included which is a swing state, plus GA plus either AZ or MO. Certainly Hillary could win any of those states, but I'm not sure GA + (AZ|MO) happens a third of the time by itself and then there's freak results in other states to fade.

08-03-2016 , 10:29 AM

#1223

ChrisV

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Definitely an improvement on the 370 EV thing would be DEM.GA which you can get for 28c, since 370+ EVs is very hard to get to without GA. DEM.NV also continues to be free money in my view and I really need to get money onto PredictIt.

08-03-2016 , 10:44 AM

#1224

lycosid

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,806

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nonfiction

347 seems like the most likely outcome to me, that's everywhere Hillary is currently favored, which includes NC. There's a big drop off after that in equity to Arizona and Georgia. If she can break through that wall, though, I like 400+ since I think a lot of other states are ripe if those two fall

08-03-2016 , 10:44 AM

#1225

Trolly McTrollson

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 36,791

Betting that North Korea won't develop a thermonuclear weapon this year. Price is .89, but I think a lot of the bettors confuse fusion bombs with fission bombs --I think there's like 0.1% chance of NK devleloping an H-bomb. I'm a little worried about how this bet will be adjudicated, otherwise I'd max this one out.

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