There isn't going to be much value for the next month because Bernie is almost a lock to win every single state until NY. Good for Bernie, bad for bettors. There is more value in betting Bernie in close states because he always closes the gap, but there aren't many close states any time soon. I'm investing a good amount into AZ once the bets from today process (assuming Bernie wins at least one of MO, OH, or IL). I think he is significantly undervalued there. The newest
poll (click here) does not show any breakdowns in voter demographics, has over 20% undecided, is landline only, and thus can be completely ignored.
Here are the GT over the past day. 20 hours ago, it was announced Bernie was holding a rally in Phoenix tonight. You can actually see the graph start to climb once that announcement was made. Insane. The ratio is 51/19 over the past day! Obv HRC will climb some when she actually shows up at the state, but its insane that Bernie is this high in a state that isn't even voting for a week, and he hasn't even done the rally yet. Holy ****. As for the search index, it's 39. For comparison, the search index in FL and NC are 31 and 43, respectively,
and those states are actually voting today! If you are a 538 apologist, consider that they put this state down for Bernie targeting more delegates than Hillary. Indicates that the demographics are good enough for him to win.
Some other reasons to feel good about this bet.
-Tucson ranks in the top 10 in per-capita donations to Bernie's campaign.
-Congressman Raúl M. Grijalva has endorsed Sanders.
-Bernie has been working for the native american vote, Hillary has not mentioned it at all afaik.
Reasons to feel concern about this bet
-Early voting started 3 weeks ago.
-Registration closed 3 weeks ago.
-Closed primary
I gave you the scoop on Michigan, then I gave you the scoop on Illinois (even if he doesn't win IL you could sell your shares now and make 3x your money if you bought when I said). Follow me to the money on AZ. The only question is whether the price will drop after today or rise. I have no idea what the answer to that question is. My hunch is that the price will drop a bit more than it is now. Regardless, i'm all in on today's states anyways, so I can't reinvest until tomorrow.
Last edited by beansroast01; 03-15-2016 at 11:26 AM.