Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
How are the GOOGLETRENDS in OH?
I'm definitely keeping my OH out of homerism no matter what. IL will pay for it anyway. Bought it at $.19.
Here's my GOOGLETRENDS assessment for your money-making pleasures. (with some actual explanation behind my methods)
OH is basically the same as the US average, which isnt that good. on average Bernie has about a 1.6-1.7 times more searches then her for the US, and this really doesnt change much over a span of a week. The search index is also a good indicator, as its the amount of relative searches per state (i think its also proportional to population). If there is a high search index the ratio between Bernie and Hill is magnified. Keep in mind that the search index is basically always smaller than 1, because the state of Vermont = 1.0 where Bernie is God. Higher search index = better for Bern if he is doing well, worse for Bern if he is doing bad.
last 24 hours (Bern/Hill [Search Index])
US - 53/32
FL - 52/34 [23]
NC - 55/31 [28]
OH - 51/30 [38]
IL - 54/26 [48] (over 2x, which afaik Bernie has never lost a state that met this metric. To me this value means he is at MINIMUM a coinflip to win, i would not expect him to lose by more than a few percentage points if he did lose)
MO - 47/18 [59] (WOW. With still two days to go this will only get even better.
Lock of the millennium and this is still only 60/40 on PredictIt. INSANE value here.)
I would be SHOCKED if Bernie won MO by less than 10 points. I think he wins it by 20+. This is a really bad state to hold Hillary shares in. I'm really confident that they will call this state as soon as the polls close for Bernie, which means you won't be able to get out of the market early and salvage anything.
As for OH, i'm surprised the search index is so low. Bernie does not appear to be very popular there. Us folk on Bern YES would like to see the index up around where IL and MO are, and a larger spread.
Last edited by beansroast01; 03-13-2016 at 03:03 PM.