An early post ITT provided the current Predictit price of .22 cents for the Dems to take both.

Seems about right (if they take the House they def take the Senate, so the price should be the same as the House price).

Such a tough spot for a ton of GOPers. Scarborough just mentioned that running against the top of the ticket is a losing proposition. I think plenty of money will be available by donors that would have given to the prez nom but pass this time but that is searching hard for a silver lining.

yeah theres alot of truth to this, given liberal trump is the Republican Candidate I woulda been for the democratics had it not been a criminal like Hillary

Trump beat Cruz by 20 points in Indiana after a mere 2 weeks in the state, if you think he think has no chance given some preliminary polling right now you are sadly mistaken. Fully expect Trump to steamroll Hillary in the general after some campaigning.

Oh **** democrats are gonna wreck Trump. He has no ****ing idea what is about to be unleashed.

On that note I read a quote from a dem oppo researcher who said 80% of what they have found hadn't even come out yet.

They could literally feed a new negative news story on trump every day from nomination to election and still have spare material.

Oh plz yes. The only worse choice than this war criminal he could pick is General Patraitorous.

I assume this is trump you are referencing?

I bet there is a big orgy story out there that has yet to surface just waiting to drop at the right time. Dude probably went to all kinds of crazy eyes wide shut parties wearing a mask that was of his own face.

He owned an organisation that appeared to be set up as one or two steps away from sex trafficking designed to funnel hot international women into the beds of him and his friends.

The stories that will come out will be yuge and make stuff about his father being in the Klan and how he raped his first wife look weak sauce in comparison.

Show me a better skin that highlights unvisited links in a different color vs. visited.

Very exciting. I've always argued that the census long form should just straight up ask if you are dumb as a box or rocks, I guess this is as close as we are ever going to get.

Re: dem governors who would have beaten TRUMP.

Jerry Brown, but he's too old. Most of the country still thinks of him as Gov. Moonbeam, but his second coming has been tough, pragmatic and pretty centrist.

GOP just needs to sell the proposition of beating Clinton in 2020 and trying to hold on until then. While the party likely will look pretty different then, I think a 2020 election between Clinton and any remotely reasonable Republican will be a tossup. It's basically impossible for a party to win four straight terms.

O'Malley lost bc the establishment and money are behind Clinton. Guys like him and Webb are at a disadvantage, but otoh, Hillary just spent the last news cycle telling coal miners she doesn't actually want them to lose their jobs and getting crowned on by a rumply socialist. I just don't buy that she's the best candidate the party could have fielded.

This is my biggest fear. Here is the tl;dr post of a big Facebook thread that happened about a month after Paris and longer after San Bernardino. I don't think all these people are GOP by a long shot.



Trivially easy.

If "best candidate" means "most likely to get elected" then yeah she really was.

I agree a generic white guy Democratic governor is a better general election candidate that Hillary.

But that's only because you can imprint whatever generic stuff you want on some nondescript person. Real, actual people are boring or uninspiring (O'Malley), or just divorced their wife and embroiled in scandals for hiring illegal immigrants (Hickenlooper), is old and already ran and failed to be President (Jerry Brown), is deeply unpopular in his own state (Jay Nixon), violated campaign finance laws in his governor race (Markell).

Remember it's trivial to scandalize and give baggage to politicians, so obviously Hillary is going to have more than the rest -- she was a First Lady, a Senator, and then SoS, and the GOP has hated the Clintons with a white hot passion for decades.

The whole "just give it to a generic white guy, middle America will love that, can't scandalize or make a generic white guy unlikable" forgets that it's been tried. Give the GOP plenty of time to disgrace or humiliate generic white guys and I'm sure they are well up to the task. Remember Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, Howard Dean, John Kerry, John Edwards, et al were the paradigms of generic whiteguyness of varying degrees of professional and political accomplishment who the GOP either dismantled and or self-immolated. In fact Kerry wasn't a generic white guy, he was a ****ing combat veteran with wounds to prove it, and they turned him into some cowardly America hating pussy.

The whole "generic white guy" stuff from the left is total pied piper territory. It's been tried and failed.

I remember immediately after 9/11 and like *everyone* I knew immediately went from thinking W was a clown to full-blown Get Your War On, Let's Roll! Even liberals were ready for some invading. A major attack at the right time and Trump absolutely has a shot at winning.

Except Clinton can follow the same sort of rhetorical path. It helps trump but the goering point only becomes truly dangerous if trump somehow manages to win. Then if things are going badly for him it's the easiest, surest path to gaining popular support.

Sup guys. I'm looking for the announcement by Reince that yesterday was all just a big joke and the nominee is actually Ryan. Can someone help me out with a link?

Name a better one. I mean sure, I'd have loved Elizabeth Warren but she's not exactly baggage free. Part of Hillary's 'baggage' is that she's a shrill liberal lady who is uppity and bothers old white guys. Elizabeth Warren doesn't solve that. Joe Biden seems like he's qualified and OK and stuff but he's old and tried and failed in the past.

Who else? Like who did the Democrats miss on this time?

I suspect we can find plenty of reasons each and every person you might name had some liabilities or practical problems that made them not viable.

In the end, the process top to bottom isn't that inefficient that there's all these stealthy awesome Democrats no one knows about and are baggage-free and awesome and likable who are waiting in the wings. We all follow politics pretty closely. Those people we're imagining are fantasies. They don't exist. Real people have warts, or are boring, or can't raise money, or aren't qualified, or whatever. That's not to say Hillary's the best you could imagine but the logic that made Hillary presumptive and the favorite all along wasn't like complete insanity; it made sense in the context of these contests. The candidates who chose not to run calculated the same.

I think Brown would have won.

He's old, but so is everyone else this year.

He lost a long time ago. Hillary also lost.

He's very tough, serious, and straightforward. No BS.

Brown is a full 10 years older than old lady Clinton. That's not trivial. He'd be like 83 at the end of his first term.

I agree Brown has a compelling case in a sense but being an octogenarian is baggage for voters. Hillary has baggage but if the second best choice was almost 80 then I think we can see how we logically landed on Hillary.

Hillary's old and tired and she failed in 2008 to some guy with almost no experience. I get that Generic Dem isn't going to be baggage-free, and Warren isn't going to work, but I don't see how uninspiring and potential baggage-carrying is worse than deeply unlikeable and lurching from one gaffe to the next.

Turns out that being short on governors has more consequences than just desperate pregnant teens in rural areas and the transgendered with full bladders.

She's not deeply unlikable though.

http://www.pollingreport.com/hrc.htm

CNN/ORC Poll. April 28-May 1, 2016. N=1,001 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.

Favorable: 48%
Unfavorable: 49%

Who in the US, besides Obama, is doing BETTER than that? Compare and contrast with the GOP nominee(s). It's not easy to be likable in contemporary political climate. She's getting compared to some ideal that isn't the practical reality.

He's spry, but yeah, he is pretty old.

Sucks, because other than that he kills imo. He's fairly centrist while still being a populist and has the honesty/authenticity that people can rally around. Imo.