2016 Bold Electoral College Predictions Thread - Page 8 - Politics and Economics

Moving IA to likely D, removing NH likely D, and adding NC to likely R changes my above total to 226-206. Adding MI and NV is 248 D.

Conclusion: uphill climb for the Rs

05-24-2016 , 06:44 PM

#177

TeflonDawg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 5,930

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

demographics does not equal race

What would it take to turn blue states red?

05-24-2016 , 07:06 PM

#178

lycosid

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,806

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeflonDawg

What would it take to turn blue states red?

These are fun, but probably too simplistic. White people in Vermont and white people in Alabama don't really nice in unison.

05-24-2016 , 07:12 PM

#179

2OutsNoProb

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 15,991

Not out of the question that Missouri is at least a sweat. Only poll out on the subject had Trump +5 two months ago, and McCain only won it by .1%. Then again, '16 Dem primary turnout was abysmal.

05-24-2016 , 10:08 PM

#180

NickMPK

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Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,569

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

Wisconsin and Iowa are locks for the Dems, not tossups.

Similarly, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are locks for the Republicans.

How are you defining a "lock"? What odds would you give that at least one of these states goes in the opposite direction of your prediction?

05-25-2016 , 07:30 AM

#181

awval999

Election Monitor.

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biesterfield

Does this seem right for the remainder:

Likely D:
CO 9
WI 10
NH 4

Likely R:
AZ 11
GA 16

That is 224 D and 191 R

Toss-ups:
IA 6
NV 6
MI 16
OH 18
PA 20
VA 13
NC 15
FL 29

Lean D:
CO 9
WI 10
NV 6
MI 16

Lean R:
AZ 11
GA 16
NC 15

Toss-ups:
IA 6
OH 18
PA 20
VA 13
NH 4
FL 29

IMO

05-25-2016 , 07:31 AM

#182

awval999

Election Monitor.

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

Not out of the question that Missouri is at least a sweat. Only poll out on the subject had Trump +5 two months ago, and McCain only won it by .1%. Then again, '16 Dem primary turnout was abysmal.

Missouri's only a sweat if Clinton is pushing 400+ EVs.

Honestly, I think she'd flip AZ and GA first before MO.

05-25-2016 , 08:43 AM

#183

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

NC is not a lock for the Republicans. People are going to turn out in droves to vote out McCrory, etc.--it will hurt Trump a decent amount there.

05-25-2016 , 07:02 PM

#184

2OutsNoProb

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 15,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by champstark

NC is not a lock for the Republicans. People are going to turn out in droves to vote out McCrory, etc.--it will hurt Trump a decent amount there.

McCrory is inept. He's polled in a statistical tie several times now. NC definitely winnable for D's.

05-30-2016 , 04:21 AM

#185

w00t

banned

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,561

Best case scenario for Hillary

05-30-2016 , 04:43 AM

#186

425kid

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Really curious how you decided her best case scenario would be the 2012 map with a red Maine

05-30-2016 , 09:32 AM

#187

awval999

Election Monitor.

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by 425kid

Really curious how you decided her best case scenario would be the 2012 map with a red Maine

Yes, this.

05-30-2016 , 10:11 AM

#188

LASJayhawk

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by w00t

I just can't see NV or MI as a toss up.

Trump is despised in Nevada Clark County. Sheldon Adelson might win a popularity contest against Trump.

FYP.

The rest of the state is reliably red. Adelson didn't buy the Review Journal for the hell of it, he wants to sway public opinion to things he wants...

05-30-2016 , 01:56 PM

#189

w00t

banned

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by 425kid

Really curious how you decided her best case scenario would be the 2012 map with a red Maine

And what would be your best case scenario ?

2016 is the new 2012 minus Maine .

05-30-2016 , 02:00 PM

#190

w00t

banned

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by awval999

Yes, this.

And your difference/complaint would be ?

05-30-2016 , 02:16 PM

#191

miajag

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Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 17,328

pretty sure w00t saw "ME" and thought it was asking who he personally was voting for

05-30-2016 , 02:17 PM

#192

miajag

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 17,328

Quote:

Originally Posted by LASJayhawk

FYP.

The rest of the state is reliably red.

You're correct, the parts of the state where no people live are quite Republican.

This weird thing conservatives do where they think it's not fair that square miles don't get electoral votes is always adorable

05-30-2016 , 02:19 PM

#193

dessin d'enfant

Guest

Posts: n/a

Best case for Hillary has North Carolina blue and prob more.

05-30-2016 , 03:38 PM

#194

LASJayhawk

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by miajag

Huh? Who said that?

05-30-2016 , 03:50 PM

#195

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by LASJayhawk

Huh? Who said that?

He's saying your post didn't mean anything because 80% of the population is in Clark County so who gives a **** how the rest of the state votes?

05-30-2016 , 04:50 PM

#196

LASJayhawk

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by master3004

He's saying your post didn't mean anything because 80% of the population is in Clark County so who gives a **** how the rest of the state votes?

The point was that the guy who pledged 100 million to Trump also purchased the newspaper in Clark county.

05-30-2016 , 05:30 PM

#197

w00t

banned

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by miajag

pretty sure w00t saw "ME" and thought it was asking who he personally was voting for

You must be able to do better than that, cause that was lamo.

05-30-2016 , 05:39 PM

#198

microbet

Solar Powered

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 56,630

Quote:

Originally Posted by miajag

pretty sure w00t saw "ME" and thought it was asking who he personally was voting for

Quote:

Originally Posted by w00t

You must be able to do better than that, cause that was lamo.

Disagree. That was solid and your not finding the humor reflects worse on you than thinking Trump can win ME.

05-30-2016 , 06:40 PM

#199

w00t

banned

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by microbet

than thinking Trump can win ME.

Trump is a shoo in to get at least one electoral vote out of Maine, and yes could win 3 out of 4 of the electoral votes.

05-30-2016 , 07:03 PM

#200

awval999

Election Monitor.

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by w00t

Trump is a shoo in to get at least one electoral vote out of Maine, and yes could win 3 out of 4 of the electoral votes.

No Republican had gotten an electoral vote from Maine since 1988... But ok...

You're arguing with someone who voted for Trump in the primary...
But when you're wrong you are wrong.

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