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http://www.270towin.com/maps/5p4yz

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Would Mitt help put Utah in Hillary's column?

Even I am surprised North Carolina is considered in play.

Are there enough Mexicans to paint Arizona blue ???

Somebody else can post the video of this, but last night Rachel Maddow started her show with the latest harebrained scheme by the #NeverTrump crowd to prevent both The Donald (and Hillary) from being elected President. Like a trick shot in pool, everything has to line up perfectly for this scheme to work.

The "plan" (as I understood it) is to entice a favorite son to run for President in a single state only - and have as many of these "favorite sons" run in as many states as possible. For instance, Mitt Romney would run in Utah and Ted Cruz or Rick Perry would run in Texas as independent (third party) candidates. (One other state was mentioned but I can't remember the state - and the favorite son.) The theory behind this Machiavellian maneuver is that enough states would be won (by the "truly conservative" favorite sons) to deny both Trump - and Hillary - the required 270 electoral college votes. If this "plan" succeeded, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives and - Viola! - say hello to President Ryan.

I can imagine Hillary hoping and praying that the #NeverTrump crowd is actually serious about this plan.

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This map is bold in the sense of how bad Hillary can do, and still become the next US president.
The States I give Hillary will be nearly impossible for Trump to flip red.


http://www.270towin.com/maps/ad9rl

There is no path for TRUMP without Florida.

There is a path for Trump without Florida
Matter of fact, there are more than one plausible path without Florida.

Granted, not easy, but yes doable.

Trump in a squeaker path below

http://www.270towin.com/maps/qOJyA

Michigan could give the election to Trump

If Trump loses Florida, he needs Michigan
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They hate him because he's an arrogant greedy smart-ass abusive prick and electing him could really harm the country and the Mormon community at large. None of that could ever bring change to their political stance and cause them to vote for Hillary. At worst, they stay home, but some might know that is a vote for Hillary and that would be worse.

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Total beat down electoral map, and it could possibly happen.

Can someone explain what makes NM so much more blue than adjacent states, like AZ or OK?

Might have something to do with this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ino_population

I would be willing to bet significant money that without a major terrorist attack or an indictment, Trump cannot win ALL of WI/MI/PA/NC/OH/AZ against Hildawg. This is almost ridiculously wishful and unrealistic thinking. WI and MI will not be in play IMO

Wisconsin:
According to the 2010 Census, the racial composition of the population was:
86.2% White American (83.3% non-Hispanic white, 2.9% White Hispanic)
6.3% Black or African American
1.0% Native American and Alaska Native
2.3% Asian American
1.8% Multiracial American
2.4% Some other race

Michigan:
The 2010 Census reported:
White American: 78.9% (Non-Hispanic Whites: 76.6%, White Hispanic: 2.3%)
Black or African American: 14.2%
American Indian: 0.6%
Asian American: 2.4%
Pacific Islander: <0.1%
Some other race: 1.5%
Multiracial: 2.3%

Michigan has more African Americans; but the demographics are similarish.

There's are also a bunch of damn long-haired smelly hippies that live there.

Shuffle - odds on "Ohio almost certainly going red"?

Kasich could try to quietly throw Ohio to the Blue column.

Something like lay $1.20 to win $1 on Red maybe ?

I didn't. I disputed his potential scenario that Trump might all of a bunch of other states, with both of them included.

Margin of victory in '12 was 9.5% in MI, 7% in WI. Rather similar.

They also don't have "completely different demographics". WI 86% white, MI 79%. 81% Christian/15% unaffiliated versus 79%/15%. Average income is $50.4k to $46k.

These are the States in play, according to the Washington Post.

Some of these in-play States are a stretch, in my opinion.

GA in play is amazing.

How can GA be in play if PA is close enough to be in play?

What is the electoral divide with the states considered locked there?

201 D - 164 R

Does this seem right for the remainder:

Likely D:
CO 9
WI 10
NH 4

Likely R:
AZ 11
GA 16

That is 224 D and 191 R

Toss-ups:
IA 6
NV 6
MI 16
OH 18
PA 20
VA 13
NC 15
FL 29

Ever met anyone from Philly or Pittsburgh?

I just can't see NV or MI as a toss up.

Trump is despised in Nevada. Sheldon Adelson might win a popularity contest against Trump.

Michigan is a reliable Democratic enclave.

New Hampshire has a better chance of going Republican than Michigan in my opinion.