Originally Posted by awval999
Per 270towin these are the battleground states from East to West:
1. New Hampshire
2. Pennsylvania
3. Ohio
4. Virginia
5. North Carolina
6. Florida
7. Iowa
8. Wisconsin
9. Colorado
10. Nevada
I have read the articles that argue primary turnout does not translate to General Election turnout, but I figure it'd be interesting to compare R vs D turnout in the swing states since we've have competitive primaries on both sides this primary season and data is interesting to look at, even if we don't know what it really means.
All data from Green Papers.
1. New Hampshire SEMI-CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 285,916
Dems: 253,018
2. Pennsylvania CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 1,573,361
Dems: 1,652,961
3. Ohio OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,988,960
Dems: 1,241,478
4. Virginia OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,025,452
Dems: 785,041
5. North Carolina SEMI-CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 1,149,648
Dems: 1,129,231
6. Florida CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 2,361,805
Dems: 1,709,183
7. Iowa
Caucus Only
8. Wisconsin OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,101,154
Dems: 1,003,910
9. Colorado
No GOP event, Ted Cruz stole all the delegates
10. Nevada
Caucus Only
BONUS STATE
11. Michigan OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,323,589
Dems: 1,205,552
So what pops out me?
First, look at open primary states. Those voters had a choice what primary to vote in. In general, I imagine primary elections are similar to midterm elections, lower turnout, more GOP leaning. If I was going to hope for swing state flips I'd like to see a large-ish GOP margin in the primary against the Democrats.
While there is obviously a "small" GOP margin in open primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin, I personally don't think that would be enough to overcome the Democratic advantage in "Presidential election year only voters", particularly the Democratic advantage in non-white voters.
But there are "large" GOP margins in Ohio and Virginia. That does pop out. Interesting.
In the Closed Primaries of Florida and Pennsylvania, GOP should be happy with the large margin in Florida, but the Democrats held PA.
In the Semi-Closed Primary of NC, it was about even, with a small GOP advantage. That's really not what the GOP would like to see there in NC.
Add all this up, for entertainment sake:
Romney 2012 + OH + FL + VA = 266. Needing only NH or IA for Lord President TRUMP, albeit having to fend off HRC in North Carolina.