Suddenly feeling good about my Carson.VP bet.

Yeah, how dare we question the slave rapers on things like governance.

2 of those 5 being offspring of Trump

eh two billion people in new york would rule over everyone anyway because they would get like 450 electoral votes

Drumpf going to take PA, Michigan, and probably NC.

Carson seems like a choice Trump would make. He prob figures that because he's black that he'll get the black vote.

Anyway, this is gonna be similar to Reagan vs Mondale. Hill gonna get every state but one (Texas obv).

Hildawg wins PA, OH, VA, and NC of the relevant swing states, and 1 of the 3 of AZ, GA, MO. Trump gets FL and NV to flip his way. MI and WI aren't competitive. First female President.

He will not win Michigan. She's killing him there, it's reliably blue, and the gap was pretty big last time out, plus there will be backlash against the incompetent Republican Governor.

Per 270towin these are the battleground states from East to West:

1. New Hampshire
2. Pennsylvania
3. Ohio
4. Virginia
5. North Carolina
6. Florida
7. Iowa
8. Wisconsin
9. Colorado
10. Nevada

I have read the articles that argue primary turnout does not translate to General Election turnout, but I figure it'd be interesting to compare R vs D turnout in the swing states since we've have competitive primaries on both sides this primary season and data is interesting to look at, even if we don't know what it really means.

All data from Green Papers.

1. New Hampshire SEMI-CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 285,916
Dems: 253,018

2. Pennsylvania CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 1,573,361
Dems: 1,652,961

3. Ohio OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,988,960
Dems: 1,241,478

4. Virginia OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,025,452
Dems: 785,041

5. North Carolina SEMI-CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 1,149,648
Dems: 1,129,231

6. Florida CLOSED PRIMARY
GOP: 2,361,805
Dems: 1,709,183

7. Iowa
Caucus Only

8. Wisconsin OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,101,154
Dems: 1,003,910

9. Colorado
No GOP event, Ted Cruz stole all the delegates

10. Nevada
Caucus Only

BONUS STATE
11. Michigan OPEN PRIMARY
GOP: 1,323,589
Dems: 1,205,552

So what pops out me?

First, look at open primary states. Those voters had a choice what primary to vote in. In general, I imagine primary elections are similar to midterm elections, lower turnout, more GOP leaning. If I was going to hope for swing state flips I'd like to see a large-ish GOP margin in the primary against the Democrats.

While there is obviously a "small" GOP margin in open primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin, I personally don't think that would be enough to overcome the Democratic advantage in "Presidential election year only voters", particularly the Democratic advantage in non-white voters.

But there are "large" GOP margins in Ohio and Virginia. That does pop out. Interesting.

In the Closed Primaries of Florida and Pennsylvania, GOP should be happy with the large margin in Florida, but the Democrats held PA.

In the Semi-Closed Primary of NC, it was about even, with a small GOP advantage. That's really not what the GOP would like to see there in NC.

Add all this up, for entertainment sake:
Romney 2012 + OH + FL + VA = 266. Needing only NH or IA for Lord President TRUMP, albeit having to fend off HRC in North Carolina.

Would you be willing to bet on that? I will take the HRC under at 48 states for any amount of money.

As a PA resident I think Trump has a frighteningly good chance here. We have Pitt, Philly, and Penn State. The rest of the state is basically Alabama. That was marginally enough for Obama in 2012, but the blue collar people I associate with are more obsessed with Trump than any other candidate I ever remember. Haven't seen anywhere close to that kind of enthusiasm for Hilary.

310,000 vote spread, 5.4% margin of victory. Not all that close. And more than 10% in '08. It'll hold.

I'm liking my picks

Primary turnout is not a rigorous way to predict election turnout.

Better to bet on him for Health and Human Services Secretary.

For the open primaries it has to be close

Not really.

One Zimbabwe dollar. U game?

Why?

Lots of democrats voted trump bc Hillary had it in the bag and they wanted trump to give Hillary and easy path to presidency

And high turnout in Ohio could be due to it being Kasich's home state

I agree that a small margin one way or the other isn't note worthy; but I think one would agree that either party would prefer to have more voters participating in their primary than the other.

I mean, Ohio's margin is ridiculous in favor the GOP. North Carolina's near parity turnout very ominous for the GOP. I think that data is interesting.

Dems stayed home because Hillary has it in the bag and who gives a ****? GOP contest is interesting.

Hahaha no significant sample of people did this. Where the hell do you come up with this stuff?

There's no way even a remotely significant amount of people did this.

The average voter can't even come up with a plan like that.

I think Drumpf is better than 50/50 to take Michigan. The state is 80% white with median income lower than national average, disproportionately impacted by globalization, and is about as light blue as you can be without being battleground.

I realize better than 50/50 is hard to swallow and some of it is just me pulling it out of my ass. But given the demographics and what has been happening recently, I think people have to see (at least consider) Drumpf has at least 30-40% equity. I happen to think he has a little more than that because I think Drumpf is instinctively good at using the media and people's psychological weaknesses to his advantage.

RCP Average 2/22 - 3/24 -- -- 48.0 37.5 Clinton +10.5
SurveyUSA 3/23 - 3/24 904 LV 3.3 49 38 Clinton +11
EPIC-MRA 3/19 - 3/22 600 LV 4.0 47 37 Clinton +10
NBC/WSJ/Marist 3/1 - 3/3 2229 RV 2.1 52 36 Clinton +16
MRG 2/22 - 2/27 600 LV 4.0 44 39 Clinton +5