2016 Bold Electoral College Predictions Thread - Page 2 - Politics and Economics

I feel like I explained my methodology pretty clearly in the OP, but here ya go:

RCP Average 3/7 - 4/11 -- -- 40.0 36.5 Clinton +3.5
Behavior Research Center 4/4 - 4/11 564 RV 4.2 42 35 Clinton +7

Arizona poll: Clinton beats Trump

05-04-2016 , 08:03 AM

#28

Trolly McTrollson

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 74Offsuit

538 - 0

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheCthaeh

With this in mind, I'm going to make the bold prediction that Johnson and/or Stein will win at least one state during the general.

Hells yeah. These are the sort of bold predictions I was hoping for!

05-04-2016 , 08:07 AM

#29

plzd0nate

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

I feel like I explained my methodology pretty clearly in the OP, but here ya go:

RCP Average3/7 - 4/11----40.036.5Clinton +3.5
Behavior Research Center4/4 - 4/11564 RV4.24235Clinton +7

Arizona poll: Clinton beats Trump

Zero chance im believing that poll is accurate.

05-04-2016 , 08:10 AM

#30

miajag

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05-04-2016 , 08:11 AM

#31

adanthar

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If it was next week:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/M3rWN

anyone who assigns Nebraska in any other way is not a pr0 election bettor imo

05-04-2016 , 08:17 AM

#32

plzd0nate

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Serious trump denial in the thread!

05-04-2016 , 08:21 AM

#33

Trolly McTrollson

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Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

If it was next week:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/M3rWN

anyone who assigns Nebraska in any other way is not a pr0 election bettor imo

Bold!

05-04-2016 , 08:25 AM

#34

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5633.html

Feels like TRUMP is gonna have a tough road to win Pennsylvania. Feel like it's impossible for him to get to 270 without winning both Pennsylvania and Ohio.

05-04-2016 , 08:32 AM

#35

plzd0nate

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Is it crazy to think Trump could take Nevada? Seems like a state that if Trump can get a large turnout (which he is) it's a state that could go red.

05-04-2016 , 08:37 AM

#36

ladybruin

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Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 2,981

Quote:

Originally Posted by awval999

It doesn't work that way.

Let me find you the Amendment.

A candidate MUST have at least ONE electoral vote to be considered. Ryan would not be considered.

Ah ha I didn't know the at least one electoral college restriction on the House tie vote for Pres. Is there a restriction on who the Senate can choose for VP? Can VP only be Clinton's VP or Trump's VP? Either way my revised tie is...

Clinton 269, Trump 269
House picks for Pres Clinton because they hate Trump
Senate picks for VP Trump, Trump's VP, McConnell (restricted?)

Clinton in full blown paranoia mode that Trump, Trump's VP, McConnell or any random GOP lover try to kill her since VP from opposite party.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-04-2016 at 08:44 AM.

05-04-2016 , 09:01 AM

#37

ladybruin

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Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 2,981

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

The electoral college was created for a specific reason: states' rights. You can't pile 2 billion people into New York and California and Florida and have them rule over everyone else.

There is no chance the electoral college would ever be scrapped, and it would be a terrible thing to do anyway.

There is some hyperbole going on in your comments. First, there aren't even 2 billion people in USA. Secondly, never say never. Furthermore, just look at how Trump whined that he might win the most votes in primary and not win the primary. Polling showed people backed the person with the most votes winning in his case. Therefore scrapping the complicated electoral college is something people are in-directly saying they would want. Plus in 212 years I think only twice has the Electoral College and the Popular vote been different. AND if AL Gore actually won, then only once in the history of USA has College and Popular vote been different. Also in last 8 elections it didn't matter if it was W. Bush or Obama, 40 of the 50 states voted exactly the same. That meant 10 swing states choose the President not 50 states. I'd prefer every person and every vote counting instead of 10 swings states deciding elections.

Last edited by ladybruin; 05-04-2016 at 09:09 AM.

05-04-2016 , 12:48 PM

#38

TrollyWantACracker

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Going for the glory here. I believe in you North Dakota!

05-04-2016 , 12:54 PM

#39

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by awval999

Hillary defeating the God-King Lord President TRUMP in West Virginia?!?!?!?!?! HAHAHAAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH

WV is a swing state according to Fox News

05-04-2016 , 12:56 PM

#40

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

The electoral college was created for a specific reason: states' rights. You can't pile 2 billion people into New York and California and Florida and have them rule over everyone else.

This is such a weird take. Like do people change skins when they cross state lines or wtf does this even mean?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

There is no chance the electoral college would ever be scrapped, and it would be a terrible thing to do anyway.

lol just no

05-04-2016 , 02:42 PM

#41

esad

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I'm not one that thinks this will be a blowout so I might as well go with a HOTTAKE that'll get the haters mad.

05-04-2016 , 04:15 PM

#42

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

How is a straight popular vote a way to have anybody rule over anybody else?

05-04-2016 , 04:25 PM

#43

weirdchess1

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,474

Well, might as well post a prediction now and see how far off I am from final result in November.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/a0gEx

My convention for this map is that anything shaded lightly blue or lightly red means margin of victory is under about 54/46.

BOLDEST predictions: New Hampshire goes red, Utah goes blue, and that MI is close and not a safe blue.

I still have Arizona, Georgia, and Mississippi going red but not by much. I expect a significant but not quite blowout win for Hillary.

Interesting to see such a broad range of guesses from everyone in this thread so far, literally 200+ electoral vote swings.

05-04-2016 , 04:57 PM

#44

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

We don't live in a country called America, we live in a country called the United States of America. It is a union of states. There are obvious, specific reasons why the electoral college was created and written into the constitution, just as each state was given 2 senators for representation in the Senate. There have been several instances in U.S. history when the person who won the popular vote did not win the electoral college, and therefore did not win the presidency. The world did not end.

It's very, very funny and ironic that itt several of you are banging your drums against populism, but then when it comes to this issue, you are in fact arguing in favor of populism.

We are just pointing out how terrible your point was. You wanted to talk about how people had their votes hijacked, but a popular vote makes that impossible and an electoral college makes it possible.

For instance, I live in Washington state. We will vote a Democrat for president regardless of how many millions of votes are cast by Republican voters. Is that fair to those people that their vote literally does not count in the presidential race?

05-04-2016 , 04:59 PM

#45

Trolly McTrollson

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This thread isn't for arguing about why the electoral college exists, it is for BOLD PREDICTIONS.

Here is an idea: Kasich is a good pick for VP. That is my hot take, hope you all liked it.

05-04-2016 , 05:03 PM

#46

DudeImBetter

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TRUMP wins every state obv

05-04-2016 , 05:05 PM

#47

LFS

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Bold prediction: at least five deaths attributable to election-related protests/counter-protests/rioting etc.

05-04-2016 , 05:23 PM

#48

master3004

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Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

Their vote does count. But when more democrat ballots are cast in Washington, the democratic candidate wins that state. That's how democracy works.

I get it that you think you are smarter than Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Franklin, and those guys, but you're probably not.

Thats... incredible

05-04-2016 , 05:24 PM

#49

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

This thread isn't for arguing about why the electoral college exists, it is for BOLD PREDICTIONS.

Here is an idea: Kasich is a good pick for VP. That is my hot take, hope you all liked it.

Bold prediction: Shuffle attempts to assassinate Hillary Clinton when it becomes clear Trump will lose by 100 electoral votes

05-04-2016 , 05:29 PM

#50

adanthar

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

This thread isn't for arguing about why the electoral college exists, it is for BOLD PREDICTIONS.

Here is an idea: Kasich is a good pick for VP. That is my hot take, hope you all liked it.

bold prediction: nobody with a career or a clue is taking the poisoned chalice and no one who ever said anything negative about Trump is being offered it to begin with

that narrows it down to one of, like, five people

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