2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread - Page 3 - Politics and Economics

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2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

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03-23-2012 , 06:44 PM

#51

2/325Falcon

Conehead

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 21,907

Romney will have zero effect on the race unless he does something to cause higher Dem turnout like pick Cheney for VP.

03-23-2012 , 06:45 PM

#52

2/325Falcon

Conehead

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 21,907

Also, they both agreed to put an end to the awesome PAC ads so the race is boring as **** right now.

03-23-2012 , 08:56 PM

#53

Nichlemn

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 9,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by zikzak

Intrade says the MA polls are poop. I agree.

Brown got in with a special election against a complacent candidate who ran a ****ty campaign. Warren is a much stronger candidate, will have a much better run campaign, and will benefit immensely from the up-ballot contest in a democrat-dominated state.

Brown is also going to get smeared, perhaps unfairly, for the last 2 years of congressional BS.

Intrade gives Warren a 68% chance of winning, yes, but it also gives Brown a 55% chance of winning.

03-24-2012 , 05:30 PM

#54

longmissedblind

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,733

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nichlemn

Intrade gives Warren a 68% chance of winning, yes, but it also gives Brown a 55% chance of winning.

Putin wins with 107% of the vote!

05-23-2012 , 04:13 AM

#55

2/325Falcon

Conehead

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 21,907

Bump.

06-20-2012 , 01:05 AM

#56

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

This thread needs to go iyam.

06-20-2012 , 01:10 AM

#57

TalkingDonkey

RIZZAHHHHHH

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 17,137

agreed, or at least until voters start giving a **** about who's running for Congress

so like mid-October

06-20-2012 , 01:16 AM

#58

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

BTW, unlike the electoral college. The senate elections this year definitely favor the Republicans structurally. Dems have to win four of FL, MA, MO, MT, NV, ND, VA, WI to maintain their majority.

That's a really tall order.

06-20-2012 , 01:24 AM

#59

Mayo

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Tough but doable imo.

Also, you left out Indiana, where the Dems have a pretty decent shot at a pickup, and Arizona, where they have somewhat less of a shot, and Maine, where a Dem-friendly independent is a big favorite.

If I had to guess, I'd say like 52 Dem senators (counting Angus King as a Democrat).

06-20-2012 , 01:26 AM

#60

TalkingDonkey

RIZZAHHHHHH

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 17,137

Nelson should coast in FL although it will tighten. MA could be winnable on coattails, although Warren could win it on her own as well. WI not sure. VA seems like a pure tossup, but hard to see how Obama can win VA without Kaine winning and vice versa. GOP probably wins in NV, MO, MT, ND (although if polling is to be believed it might be closer than expected)

4 is definitely possible but will be a tough fight for sure.

06-20-2012 , 01:32 AM

#61

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mayo

RCP is saying Indiana is a Republican lean and Romney is polling at +10 there. That seems like a stretch. Arizona RCP has flake up 6.4. Maine is a safe dem in my scenario.

52 is a no ****ing way scenario.

06-20-2012 , 04:17 AM

#62

2/325Falcon

Conehead

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 21,907

Warren/Brown ads suck right now. Warren has gone from pimping Obama in her ads to government doesn't work and Brown has his wife doing ads about him being Mr. Mom.

06-20-2012 , 10:45 PM

#63

seattlelou

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Democratic hopes for the return of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker dim:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...apturing-house

06-21-2012 , 12:10 AM

#64

TalkingDonkey

RIZZAHHHHHH

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 17,137

Yeah pretty sick how the GOP couldn't have stomped at a better time (redistricting)

GL winning back the majority any time soon, Democrats

06-21-2012 , 12:57 AM

#65

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Case Closed

Anyone from Mass. following the senate race over there? How are people taking to Liz Warren? She seems like she could walk in an be one of the best senators. I'm really pulling for her.

Because her life is built around a lie? I guess that would give her a leg up on being a politician

06-21-2012 , 06:54 PM

#66

seattlelou

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Senate majority still up for grabs according to Roll Call.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_15...-215543-1.html

06-26-2012 , 06:49 AM

#67

Hamish McBagpipe

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,502

The Tea Party, FreedomWorks, Michelle Malkin etc. backed challenger to Orrin Hatch in Utah, Dan Liljenquist, is about to get crushed today...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-2057.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_1...the-tea-party/