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Old 02-17-2012, 09:34 AM   #1
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2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

Let's use this thread to discuss 2012 House & Senate Races.

Saw this today

Quote:
@ppppolls Democrats lead generic legislative ballot in Michigan 48-34, should give them chance to retake House.
Safe money is still on the GOP retaining the House, and they have a strong opportunity to seize control of the Senate.

Let's go....
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:06 AM   #2
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

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Old 02-17-2012, 03:44 PM   #3
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

This is how RCP has the races which I think is pretty close to how I would have it.

45 Safe Dem - 47 Safe Rep

Contested Senate Seats
Florida: Ben Nelson vs. Connie Mack III - Nelson +3.5
Massachusetts: Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren - Warren +0.3
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow vs. Pete Hoekstra - Stabenow +10.0
Missouri: Claire Macaskill vs. Sarah Steelman - Steelman +1.0
Montana: Jon Tester vs. Danny Rehberg - Rehberg +2.0
Nevada: Dean Heller vs. Shelly Berkley - Berkley +1.0
Virginia: Tim Kaine vs. George Allen - Kaine +2.0
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin vs. Tommy Thompson - Thompson +7.0

Note: In cases where there was no RCP average I just took the latest poll listed.


If this is how the senate races ended today we would end up with a tie. There is a lot of room in between now and then though and I think that success for either party will end up on the following;
1) Money is going to play a big factor
2) The Presidential Race is going to play a big factor

A few points one way or the other and you could be looking at a landslide.
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Old 02-17-2012, 03:47 PM   #4
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

I find it hard to care about congressional seats. I don't want more crazy social conservatives getting elected, but at the same time, wtf did dems do when they had the house, senate, and white house?

Meh
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Old 02-17-2012, 03:52 PM   #5
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

I like congressional races because you actually get diversity in the candidates as opposed to the top of the ticket you only get people who play to the base of your party. For instance I doubt a lefty populist professor from Harvard could run competitively in any red state.
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Old 02-17-2012, 04:05 PM   #6
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

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I don't want more crazy social conservatives getting elected, but at the same time, wtf did dems do when they had the house, senate, and white house?

Meh
I reluctantly have to agree here. One of the Dems biggest collective problems is they lack a set of balls. They were elected in 2006 on the hopes of ending the Iraq war, along with a set of other goals to reverse the country. They did very little, caving at every opportunity.

With that said, I love watching all the little battles that go on across the country, and how bigger battles can affect downticket races. It can be fairly fascinating to watch the politics and campaigns unfold in some districts.
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Old 02-17-2012, 04:08 PM   #7
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

I couldn't have been happier, at the time, with how 2006 played out. It was insanely exciting watching some upset victories and watching Rs scramble to explain away the rout.
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Old 02-17-2012, 06:24 PM   #8
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

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Originally Posted by Low Key View Post
I couldn't have been happier, at the time, with how 2006 played out. It was insanely exciting watching some upset victories and watching Rs scramble to explain away the rout.
I think you remember 2006 like I remember 2010.
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Old 02-17-2012, 11:58 PM   #9
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by nyc999 View Post
Let's use this thread to discuss 2012 House & Senate Races.

Saw this today



Safe money is still on the GOP retaining the House, and they have a strong opportunity to seize control of the Senate.

Let's go....
They meant the Michigan House.
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Old 02-18-2012, 12:01 AM   #10
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

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Originally Posted by nyc999 View Post
I reluctantly have to agree here. One of the Dems biggest collective problems is they lack a set of balls. They were elected in 2006 on the hopes of ending the Iraq war, along with a set of other goals to reverse the country. They did very little, caving at every opportunity.

With that said, I love watching all the little battles that go on across the country, and how bigger battles can affect downticket races. It can be fairly fascinating to watch the politics and campaigns unfold in some districts.
One of the Democrats issues is that their party is a much bigger tent than Republicans. When the Democrats won in 2006 they had like over 40+ Conservatives in the house and probably another 50+ Moderates. So It's much harder to pass bills when there are many more diverse opinions. Republicans in the house are pretty monolithic in how they vote right now. You have a small group of Moderates and a libertarian wing, but the vast majority of Republicans in the house right now are Solid down the line conservatives.

Helping the Republicans out is a solid edge in redistricting once again, like 2000. This time they have done a better job of consolidating their gains unlike in 2000. Democrats picked the worst possible year to explode.
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Old 02-18-2012, 03:13 PM   #11
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

I don't think redistricting is helping Republicans as much (still a little) this time around. Dems are going to make big gains in California, Texas, Illinois and I'm sure some other places but those mitigate for the most part the redistricting in the southern states.
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Old 02-20-2012, 11:19 AM   #12
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

Safe to say this guy's GOP run in the AZ-4 is over

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Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu — who became the face of Arizona border security nationally after he started stridently opposing illegal immigration — threatened his Mexican ex-lover with deportation when the man refused to promise never to disclose their years-long relationship, the former boyfriend and his lawyer tell New Times.
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Old 02-20-2012, 11:48 AM   #13
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

What makes him more unelectable the gay part or the Mexican part?
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Old 02-20-2012, 11:51 AM   #14
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

the GOP part
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Old 02-20-2012, 11:54 AM   #15
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Re: 2012 Congressional Elections Containment Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by kowboys4 View Post
This is how RCP has the races which I think is pretty close to how I would have it.

45 Safe Dem - 47 Safe Rep

Contested Senate Seats
Florida: Ben Nelson vs. Connie Mack III - Nelson +3.5
I am seriously shocked and surprised by this.
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