Around December I made a couple of bets that the Giants would win the SB, it was when they were free falling and Dallas was surging so I got a good price but didn't bet a lot. I'm curious about what types of hedging plays you guys would consider...

Also, the AFC game is first, the outcome of this should affect my decision on hedging the 2nd game, right?


The 49ers are -135 ML....would you guys bet this or watch the first half, see where the game is, then go from there?

Edit: I really think the Giants will beat the 49ers, they played them tough at home earlier in the year and should've won, but the 49ers have been a tough team for me to read this year.

Sounds like you've got the Giants to win the Super Bowl.

Why not hedge with "The Giants will not win the Super Bowl" at -400?

I feel like you could get a better price by just betting SF ML and their SB opponent if they happen to beat SF

I would take the NYG -400. For instance if you bet 100 you win 25$. Conversely, if you had 100$ to hedge, you could place 50$ on SF ML to win $38.46. If this loses you bet 50$ on the AFC team. Now the AFC is -135, 50 to win 37$+. If NYG win the SB you lose the same amount with either option, 100$.

In the ML scenario, if the Giants don't win the Superbowl you either win $38.46 or lose -$12+. Although you likely win 38.46$ 55-60% of the time imo, you could actually end up losing the NYG SB bet AND 12% of your hedge bet in the ML scenario. I assume you want your hedge bet to actually win money if the NYG don't win the SB, therefore I would side with the -400.

=) k dumb question I get it

Makes sense, thanks. Seems like hedging at this point isn't worth the equity I'd give up on the giants bet so I'm gonna let it ride at least past next week since I think they win in SF. I read an article today that said Vegas wil get hurt the most if the Giants win since a lot of people loaded up on them when the odds went to 100-1 in December

GL guys

Let it ride.

I agree... Gonna see it through and take a weekend trip or something w the lady if I win... 70 to win 3500... One time Eli!!!