A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says "On any day except Wednesday, you can shout any question down that well, and you'll be told the answer" .

The stranger shouts down several questions, and all are answered. The stranger is impressed, and after thinking a minute he shouts down: "Why not on Wednesday?" and the voice from in the well shouts back "Because on Wednesday, it’s your day in the well".

GOGOGO

Edit: adding ur own well to the list of well's in the OP seems shifty.

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• Previous turns in The Well in Sports Betting:
• Performify - 02/02/07
• B00T - 02/07/07
• Thremp - 02/14/07
• NajdorfDefense - 02/21/07
• King Yao - 05/23/07
• YouTalkFunny - 05/30/07
• shipitkthx - 10/30/08
• crockpot - 12/12/08
• TomG - 07/14/09
• ProfessorBen -10/22/09

How long have you been SB? What are your "credentials"?

How do you come up with inspiration for your hair?

Seriously how many posters here have beaten sports long term?

/swish

If you don't count the awesome Mansion bet, I've actually only been sports betting for 2 years. In that light, I'm not as qualified as most of the guys who have done Wells. My niche knowledge/modeling of CBB is probably the reason I'm on this platform(though Poofler should really be up here for that).

What is the "awesome Mansion bet"?

Do you bet straight off the model without knowing anything else? Does the model do anything with injuries?

all of them man. don't ever let MT2R tell you he's only breakeven. SB is EZ game. wise chinaman once say EZ COME, EZ COME.

It is 2006. The Steelers beat the Seahawks in SBXL. The Steelers open @ Dolphins in next season's opener. MansionNetwork lets everyone free roll a $1100 to win $1000 bet on the Steelers -5 or something like that. Everyone with Neteller loads up. Some people put on skirts on(not me, I always knew to ride dirtay even when I was a n00b). ROFLisberger gets hurt. Charlie Batch is starter. Line moves to -2.5 or something. Game situation in 4th quarter looks like Steelers never cover -5, cause they are up 1 without the ball. Joey Porter pick 6 = ship ship ship.

That was just a summary. You can find lots of threads on this in the archives.

That was such an awesome game. Mansion.com had a promotion for a free $1000 bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers. It came down to a last second interception.

On a scale of 1-10, how sick will you feel placing your first CBB future this year?

what's your background that helped u develop the model? Does any of your own analysis from outside the model go into making your actual wagers?

In general, I'd say 85% of our betting is just what the model tells us + the other mathematical kinks we're aware of, and the other 15% is injuries/deviant HCA/expecting line movement/UCLA wanting to play faster, trends in NC vs. Conf play, etc.

Injuries are much more difficult to deal with in basketball than in baseball, where you can just sub one player out for another for the most part and plug and play. I would love to be able to do a +/- system or other system that looks at play how 2 or 5 players interact and try to isolate exactly what a player contributes in certain formats. Unfortunately, that's out of the scope of our resources.

Thus, what we end up doing is a lot of ballparking and common sense(read: fishtalk). We'll look through kenpom's advanced stats for what kind of player the guy is, (usage/off and def possession stats). I feel like we do a reasonable job, because these numbers definitely know more than the media/public, but its far from SABR or gambling perfect, and isn't something we'd wager on if we already have an edge.

Just from memory, Poofler and I would often ask each other how much a line is going to move the first game a player has been out. It's been hit or miss. Again, enough to bet if we're in the right direction and there's already an edge.

Poofler: If you're here, feel free to chime in on any of these CBB questions.(if you want to save our secrets for ur own well down the line, that's fine too) You are not allowed to answer questions about my hair or fat chicks though.

11. our first one last year was Georgetown 45-1. Poofler had to beg me to give him some action cause we thought we had such a good price/line. Whatever i bet this season will remind of this epic fail.