Been betting a good amount of MLB team totals recently. I very recently (aka yesterday morning) started poking around to determine the value of a half run on a team total (i.e whats the better bet, Nationals u5.5 -165, or u5 -105).

On 5Dimes right now, the Red Sox and Rays are both -105 on the game line, indicating that each team has a 50% chance of winning the game, and that each team's expected runs scored are the same (game total is 7.5). The posted Red Sox team total is o4 +115/u4 -135, and the posted Rays team total is o3.5 -105/u3.5 -115.

If both teams are expected to score the same number of runs, then the Red Sox team total would also be o3.5 -105/u3.5 -115. Which would mean that the value of moving a half run on a team total of 3.5 with a game total of 7.5 is 20 cents (more accurately, somewhere around 4-4.7% in this scenario)

That stood out as seeming really low to me in the moment (not exactly scientific, I get it, but still). Am I missing something here? I'd expected a half run to be worth significantly more, especially with a relatively low team total of 3.5.

I guess I'd have to look at the distribution of runs scored by teams in each game over the last couple of seasons, split out by the lined total on the game, to put a % on the value of moving off of 3.5 and onto 4, or vice versa. I intend to do that, but was just curious if anyone here had input as well.

That does seem low. I wouldn't rely on 5dimes, or any book for that matter, team total offerings to be efficient though

All else equal, away team total should be higher than home team total, due to the nature of away team batting first. The away team always bats 9 innnings, the home team often bats only 8 innings. If you model games you'll notice away team totals should be inflated relative to home team totals.

Ok, forgive me if I'm being a noob, but I'm looking at these two games today:

Cubs (-122) @ Orioles (+112), o10 -120/u10 +100

Rays (+112) @ Angels (-122), o9 -110/u9 -110

The Rays TT is o4 -120/u4 +100. The Angels TT is o4 -125/u4 +105

Meanwhile, the Cubs TT is o5.5 +100/u5.5 -120, but the Orioles TT is o4.5 -115/u4 -105.

Again, these games have the exact same moneylines. I understand the totals are close to full run different, but it feels like either the Rays and Angels TT's are way too close together, or (I think this one is more likely) the Cubs and Orioles TT's are too different. I just don't know how you could derive these 4 team totals from these ML and O/U combinations from one consistent methodology. I get 5D is not 100% perfect, but these are very close to what I was seeing at pinny. Can anyone provide a bit more insight into how these are set? Or am I missing something obvious?