Bet any correlated parlays you can get away with without getting freerolled where the result is anything from D 52 to R 54 imo as the outcome should be in that range a huge % of the time.

Dem side is obviously awesome as the Ds hold the Senate 1 in 3 or so according to Nate which seems about right, R side seems fine too (52 is looking like the most likely number at the moment for Rs, with anything from 48-54 R being not that unlikely)

If possible, can you add specific seats into some of those parlays to improve the odds? Like the Democrats aren't getting control without NH ever and the Rs won't get to 52 ever if they don't win LA/AR so you could get an extra free leg pretty much

Unfortunately, the site won't allow individual races to be parlayed. Too bad, as that would have created some sick opportunities with massive payoffs(Im not!

Alaska seems to be improving for Begich two polls showing a big lead but most polls showing a small lead for Sullivan.

GA improving for Perdue and NC is tightening too

it's pretty crazy there are something like 7 races that are legit tossups (in that its better than 20% that one candidate wins) and 10 that could theoretically change hands at this stage

SB has R -1100 and D +700 for control of the senate. D has to be the play here right with the 538 having R as 2-1 favs?

Yeah I mean the Ds are clearly dogs to retain but enough races are competitive that their GOTV could help the Ds surpass their polling in a few races as they did in the 2010 Angle/Reid race.

Barring the polls being wrong, the Ds start at 47 seats (we're giving them NC and NH because they've led almost every poll) and need to get to 50.

Two polls this week have shown Begich ahead outside the MOE in Alaska and while it's only two polls, he's a legit chance to win especially as the Dems GOTV vote effort will drastically surpass the R one

In GA, CO, IA, polls show the Ds behind but within the margin of error. They pick up 1 of the 3 a reasonably high % of the time.

Then Greg Orman in KS is very slightly ahead of Pat Roberts on polling on average, here the GOTV effort is going to be a big deal, Roberts has the machine behind him but he's so unpopular it's going to come down to enthusiasm. If he wins, Begich's GOTV effort gets him over the line, one of Braley/Nunn/Udall gets over the line and Orman wins, suddenly Orman has the balance of power. If he caucuses with the Rs he'll never be reelected as an independent as he loses all his D support and would need to trust that the Rs won't run a candidate against him in 6 years. If he caucuses with the Ds, he'll lose most conservative supporters, but guarantees the Ds won't run against him in 6 years and he'll have the defacto support base if he can maintain his I supporters he has a shot at reelection. If he's looking purely to be re-elected, he'd need an ironclad guarantee that the Rs won't run a candidate against him in 6 years to caucus with the Republicans and given he's in a bitter war with Pat Roberts right now and the state is very red, I see him as a favourite to caucus with the Ds

There's also a small chance at an AR/LA/KY/SD Heitkamp style upset where the polls were wrong due to getting the demographics of who actually shows up to vote wrong but all four seem unlikely.

It feels like the Rs end up on 51 most of the time if I had to pick an exact number with a good shot at 52 as well, but 50 is very, very possible and at +700 I like it.

I do think Georgia goes to Perdue in the end (likely in a runoff) which makes it tougher but I can't help but think that the Ds will hold one of IA/CO quite often and I really like Begich's chances in Alaska for a betting underdog

I think I might fire Begich +260 if I get around to depositing on 5d, but I might also wait for literally the day before election day so we have max info before firing bets. At this point I think Begich is number 49 for the Ds (with Orman being 48, although he's more likely to caucus with the Rs if they're in majority i'd imagine but still a favourite to end up with the Ds)

If I had to pick an exact number today i'd say we get 49 Ds including Orman, but 50 is very possible (so is 48 etc) so its hard not to fire at that price

If any markets offer longterm futures betting on the Ds to retake the senate in 2016 is a semi lock because high turnout presidential year + 24/10 R/D split on seats being defended in 2016 so the Rs will be the ones with vulnerable incumbents from the 2010 wave year

Depends if you think people wagering money, in aggregate, know more than Nate's model.

I don't know what the odds should be, but they should be more than 2-1. The past week's results have been pretty bad for Dems. I think they'll keep Shaheen and Hagan, but even those are up for grabs. I see the Rs getting all the rest, with the possible exception of one I.

obama though

They don't, as evidenced by all of your comments last election cycle about how Romney was going to defy convention and win.

The most likely result this time around is an R victory, but it's a lot closer than the presidential race was and Romney was something like a 3-1 dog on intrade the day before.

Electoral-vote.com puts the polling averages into an easy to read graph and while the medium outcome on polling averages is currently 52R, I think Alaska, Colorado and Iowa are all non-zero chances for the Ds (especially Alaska with the D's GOTV advantage on election day) and the polling is within the margin of error, although R favoured, in CO and IA. I think it's likely the Dems win 1 in 3 on average and end up on 49, but 50 isn't out of the question by any means. You have to remember that GA and LA won't be settled on election night and will go to run-offs, which means even if the Ds end up on 48 or 49, there's effectively going to be a second election with the two runoffs and if they're on 49, something can still go wrong for a R candidate in either race before the runoff (with senate control on the line, spending on GOTV efforts will be huge, and higher turnout for Ds could happen in theory)

The most likely outcome imo is that the Ds win every race they're ahead in (NC could still go R but the polls would have to be wrong), Orman wins KS and the Ds win one other race which brings them to 49 and the LA/GA runoffs deciding the senate (likely 51-49R but who knows)

All it would take is Begich's GOTV with the usual non-voting tribes and the Dems to somehow get higher turnout than expected in IA or CO though and that gets them to 50. On average they'll only get 1 of the 3 but 2 is very possible. They shouldn't be competitive at this point in the cycle and the Rs should have it in the bag, but I think Rs being a 2-1 or 3-1 fav seems about right, and I actually think the Rs are sub 50% to lock it up on election night with LA/GA runoffs very likely. I'd say we can go with 49-53 Rs with reasonable confidence with the most likely outcome being 52R, but it'll be lower than 52 more often than higher.

Barring a strong republican 2016 candidate and a big win in the presidential election it's going to be a D senate again in 2016 though, looking at the 2010 wave class, Johnson is a huge dog in WI, Toomey is a huge dog in PA, Kirk is a huge dog in Illinois. I'd assume at least 2 out of the 3 will lose in a presidential year and probably all three if the D candidates are competent. If any books offer early markets i'd comfortable fade all three for re-election at evens (or if anyone here wants to give me action)

Ayotte is a flip in NH, depends how she does as a Senator in next two years and how good the D candidate is.

Races that could be competitive include Burr in NC, Portman in OH, Blunt in MO, Rubio in FL. All start as favourites though.

Democrats that are vulnerable are Reid in NV and Bennet in CO - both would start as a favourite though in a Presidential year.

I'd say on average we'd expect the Rs to lose 3 seats from their most vulnerable four and one other seat for 4 total, and the Dems to lose about 1 seat for a net gain of 3 in a neutral year, although that number will be much higher if the Ds win the Presidential election and probably lower but still a net gain for Ds if the Rs win unless it's a landslide R win. I'd happily take at least 2/4 of Ayotte, Johnson, Toomey and Kirk lose re-election in 2016 @ evens if anyone likes the incumbents or give a line of Dem net pickup -2.5 seats @ evens

Back on 2014, is anyone surprised that Orman is still at evens with Roberts? He's been leading in most polls most of the time for the past few weeks. I wonder how his GOTV effort is looking and whether the Dem machine will be assisting him or not...

Absolutely.

WaPo has Repub Senate at 94% today. ~16-1. Iowa now strongly in R column probably tips it to Rs for sure. If Ds lose Iowa and CO they have 0 shot at retaining the Senate.

You've got some interesting sweats going on a few days out. Turns out Tennant, Ball, Land and McFadden weren't that good in hindsight but the rest seem to have been +EV at the time with how the races have played out. Orman and Gardner look like your best plays at this stage it looks like you'll get 3 on average

2 Team - Parlay
Republicans ML (-550)
GOP - 52 or more seats ML (-140)$300.00 $307.79

Jeanne Shaheen (D) ML (-160) $400.00 $250.00
Kay Hagan (D) ML (-200) $500.00 $250.00
Bill Cassidy (R) ML (-260) $650.00 $250.00
Mark Pryor (D) ML (+350) $250.00 $875.00
Democrats ML (+250) $250.00 $625.00
6 of 6 Total Wagers


put these in a week ago, whatya think

edit: just looked at the prices now. ehh not doin so hot. whats the line on cassidy now, anyone know?

Cassidy wins. He's -530 on 5d. Great bets on Cassidy and Shaheen. Dems ML looked okish at +250 a week ago, a bit less so now but it's live. Hagan seems fine, although i'm worried polls overstate her position but I might be underestimating how much people in NC hate Thom Tillis.

Correlated parlay looks nice obviously - I think 49-53 for the Rs is the most likely range but 52 is probably the most likely individual number if the polls are entirely accurate (they could be off by a point or two either side as midterms are hard to poll which is the diff between a narrow D hold and a 53-54 seat R wave)

Orman/Roberts trading favouritism every day on 5d - feels like an Orman pickup but who knows. Independents don't come this close in the polls and underperform that often (in Australia anyway, can't think of a spot where an I was in a close race recently in the US, maybe Lieberman vs Lamont a few years ago which the I won)

Can't check the correlated parlay price obv but current prices are

Shaheen -160 - she's at -530, well done. I liked her when she dropped below -200 as well but probably not going to put money on a site that has elections betting unless I like some lines the day before the election
Hagan -200 - Currently -290. I don't really like the -290 line but -200 seems decent given she's up 2 points average across 8 polls.
Cassidy -260 - currently -530, and looking like a lock but you'll be waiting until the runoff to collect your money probably since it's LA and it'll go to a runoff
Pryor +350 - out to +900, polls look awful, he's probably finished
Dems ML +250 - Nate Silver has Rs up to 73% in latest forecast - still, you're live because the Ds could get home in 2/3 of Alaska, Colorado and Iowa + Orman wins in KS. Plus, LA and GA will go to runoffs, leaving the Rs short of the 51 they need to win on election night and the campaign starts over in those states although both esp LA lean R. I think current line is more like +500 to +700 but I think theres value at that price, don't love it at +250 though

I think overall you got it in good on 3/5 line movement wise, and your correlated parlay is in theory +EV based on current polls but I can't help but think the Ds will hold at least one state the Rs are up by 1-2 points in because there are so many of them so it'll be close

538 final forecast has Rs as 3-1 favs

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ng-the-senate/

Wp 97%. Cnn 95%.

It'll come down to the individual races but it's looking like the Rs are in good shape to win the senate as expected - the one surprise being Warner is in trouble in VA although apparently the R counties get counted earlier so he could still be okay. Going to come down to Fairfax county and how much Warner wins by on current numbers the whole race is within 5k votes, the biggest pop county left is heavily Warner but it looks like he'll fall maybe 2k votes short on current numbers, hopefully he can get over the line - if he can't the race is over early, although most states are breaking slightly redder than polling averages so far with NC and NH being the exceptions

Crist/Scott pretty much tied in FL that's going to go all night, they're both awful politicians but I really want Rick Scott gone as i'm registered to vote in FL and I suspect he disenfranchised me last cycle as i'm a registered D and I never received the absentee ballot I requested (plus hes an awful person even if Crist is too)

Looks like Gillespie is our Heidi Heitkamp story of the cycle so far in the one no one saw coming, he would have been +2800 or something right? No guarantee he wins but it's shocking it could go either way

Just as I post that Warner looking much safer now, the vast majority of votes to come in are in Fairfax where he has a 30k lead with 60% of fairfax counted and he's behind by 6k votes - should be able to overcome it now. Still, a huge scare no one expected

McConnell beating Grimes by 15 w not much left, guess that proves no matter how much you suck, red state's gonna red state. Perdue crushing in GA too. I never thought Nunn would win in GA, but expected it closer. I guess rural counties report earlier on average but on these numbers no way Nunn overcomes them

Roberts up 49-47 against Orman but only 14% reporting, that one should be fun to watch later. Hopefully Orman can get it done even if he ends up caucusing with the Republicans, more Is in the Senate can only be a good thing

The county by county breakdowns in each state on Politico are really good

Doesn't look like there are quite enough votes left in Miami-Dade for Crist to win FL. Scott should have it narrowly

VA looks so close again for Senate with 93% in it'll come right down to the wire whether there are enough D votes in Fairfax for Warner to overcome Gillespie's lead elsewhere or not

MA-GOV looking close, I have no idea why the Ds nominated Martha Coakley against after she lost a senate race in one of the bluest states, so dumb.

Dems would need IA and Alaska now plus Orman in KS to have any chance of holding the Senate, and theres zero chance if Warner loses VA - although hes down 7k votes now w 96% in and is on course to net another 10-15k or so in Fairfax

Glad I didn't end up firing Orman, not looking great there but early days.

Rs win CO and with it probably the Senate, nice bink for whoever got on Gardner early. D's only path to victory left is AK/IA/KS/hold VA and thats absurdly unlikely. Scott holds FL-GOV.

98.6% in, all of Fairfax in and Warner leads by 3k votes. Mixture of D and R counties left but it looks like Warner narrowly holds unless there are a lot of uncounted absentee ballots etc (not sure how VA does it there)

Senate looking gone for the Democrats unless Begich and Braley drastically exceed expectations

NC going to come down to whether there are enough Hagan votes in Mecklenberg and Franklin counties. Tillis up, but more D votes left to be counted. Looks like Tillis was the right side @ odds betting wise but could go either way. I nearly bet Tillis, not sure if he's over 50% to win but he's def over the 30% or so he'd need to be at odds

Looks like Tillis will probably narrowly get there which ends the night early. Still a few sweats going for everyone who placed bets though. This is actually the first cycle since 2006 I didnt end up firing any bets

Looks like it ends up 54-46 or 53-47 depending whether the Ds can win one of Iowa or Alaska or not, and assuming they hold VA where it looks like Warner barely held on.

Looks like you got Gardner, Ernst and Tillis in the end. I'm surprised Orman didn't perform better on election day, but Tillis overperformed so you probably ran about to EV. I'm a bit annoyed with myself that I didn't bet on Tillis as he was the R underdog I liked most all cycle and Shaheen when she was -180ish, but I would have lost on Orman and we're still waiting on Alaska. I wouldn't have gone with Braley or Udall in the last two weeks, but a few weeks out I still thought both had a good chance and would have leaned that way.

How did you end up with bet sizing accounted for?

Looks like Hagan let you down and cost you a win overall. Pryor was dead in the water, and Cassidy amazing value. Shaheen was good too, on the polling Hagan looked fine but NC has some red fundamentals I always had some doubt she'd win even though objectively she was the fav. Correlated parlay was def +EV as it turns out.