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| Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events. |
05-26-2012, 07:21 PM
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#106
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Looking forward to AA
Posts: 15,287
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Bob -- Quick makes the Kings unbeatable this year [along with Carter/Richards].
T/F?
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05-26-2012, 07:24 PM
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#107
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Zero wave are madmen
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Broadcasting Minor League Hockey!
Posts: 61,524
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Well, they've been beaten with all of the above at multiple points this year. So I guess I would have to say F.
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05-27-2012, 08:35 AM
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#108
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,256
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
I am not seeing any result overviews so I am just gonna assume he is losing.
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05-27-2012, 10:19 AM
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#109
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veteran
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: props manager, nolan syndicate
Posts: 2,605
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Quote:
Originally Posted by MicroBob
I have re-thought my position on this. I will go ahead and do that forthwith.
However, it should be noted that I deem all the trolls so far in this thread to have moderate to extremely good intentions. I thank them for their contributions.
In other words, please to be carry on as per usual okthxsoundsgoodbye.
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A mod with an ignorance disclaimer sticky probably shouldn't be judging intentions and micro-managing the forum.
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05-27-2012, 10:53 AM
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#110
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
26.05 Argentina B - Almirante Brown/Gimnasia Jujuy under 2.25@1,78 Pinnacle - closed 1,67 result 2-1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
27.05 J2 League - Thespa Kusatsu/Matsumuto Yamaga under 2@1,95 SBO,188Bet,Dafabet - closed 2,09 result 0-0
27.05 J2 League - FC Gifu/Ventforet Kofu under 2.25@1,92 188Bet - closed 2,21 result 0-3
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i guess i can tally up for the week
Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
28.05 Argentine - Colon de Santa Fe/Velez Sarsfield under 2@2,03 188Bet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
28.05 Norwegian 1 - Ham-Kam/Mjondalen under 3@2,05 Pinnacle
28.05 Norwegian 1 - Start/Bodo-Glimt over 3@1,94 Pinnacle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
28.05 Norwegian 1 - Sandefjord/Alta under 3@1,92 Dafabet
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05-27-2012, 11:07 AM
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#111
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
started on wednesday, not much action since, only 10 bets for the week
im not posting anything about z-score or mean absolute error, also no graph yet, because with that small sample size, they are not very meaningful, gonna wait until about 50 samples
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samples : 10
won-lost-void : 4-4,5-1,5
w% : 47,1%
roi : -6%
edge : -8,28%
--
beat the vigged closing line
avg : 6,1 cents
% : 70%
beat the no-vig closing line
avg : 0,5 cents
% : 70%
-
avg odds : 1,949
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05-27-2012, 02:22 PM
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#112
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Zero wave are madmen
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Broadcasting Minor League Hockey!
Posts: 61,524
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Tom, can't tell if you are trolling my fun troll or just confused. If not the former then please read again. Kthxsoundsgoodbecoolalliswell please to be carry on.
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05-28-2012, 09:09 AM
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#113
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
adding
1.06 Irish - Bray Wanderers/Dublin over 2.5@1,83 Pinnacle
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really the biggest dilemma, when thinking over the sample size required to prove anything, its got to be 1k+ at least, so should i post the model i feel is better, but breaks even with no-vig closing line, or the model that constantly beats the no-vig closing line and by line shopping i can get the number to 6 cents therefore confirming about 3% ROI for me, also roi could be bigger, if my model is actually even sharper.
because with beating the no-vig closing line i could probably confirm that im a winner in like 100-150-200 bets
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05-28-2012, 11:25 AM
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#114
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
adding
2.06 J2 League - Matsumoto Yamaga/Kofu under 2.25@2,01 Pinnacle
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05-28-2012, 11:49 AM
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#115
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
adding
1.06 Irish - Derry City/Shelbourne over 2.25@1,87 Pinnacle,SBO,188Bet
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05-28-2012, 06:43 PM
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#116
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
adding
2.06 J2 League - Mito/Tochigi under 2@2,05 Dafabet
2.06 Icelandic - Hafnarfjordur/Fylkir under 3@1,85 Dafabet
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05-29-2012, 12:20 PM
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#117
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
28.05 Argentine - Colon de Santa Fe/Velez Sarsfield under 2@2,03 188Bet - closed 1,92 result 0-2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
28.05 Norwegian 1 - Ham-Kam/Mjondalen under 3@2,05 Pinnacle - closed 1,83 result 1-1
28.05 Norwegian 1 - Start/Bodo-Glimt over 3@1,94 Pinnacle - closed 2,04 result 3-0
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk
28.05 Norwegian 1 - Sandefjord/Alta under 3@1,92 Dafabet - closed 1,89 result 2-2
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---
going to start posting a graph with true no-vig closing line EV
ROI EV is currently at 1,15%, only 14 samples though, im definetly achieving a better number
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05-29-2012, 03:59 PM
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#118
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,256
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Nice way to hide the fact that you are losing.
Also very misleading to talk about EV. But you are a scammer so it was expected.
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05-29-2012, 04:12 PM
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#119
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grinder
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 518
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
a quote by greg king came into my mind when reading this
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05-29-2012, 05:07 PM
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#120
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Zero wave are madmen
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Broadcasting Minor League Hockey!
Posts: 61,524
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Re: tukkk´s soccer totals
Oh lookee...it's a graff!
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