what league. i've got 50 million + line moves over 301 leagues over 6 years from the biggest books so i'm pretty sure that is incorrect. even focusing on the bigger leagues where one bet doesn't move the line a lot it's not even close to that low
strictly taking only pinnacle opening price and closing price, the difference is =>10 cents 36,7% of the time
so when line opened 1,94/1,94 and closed 1,92/1,97 ... didnt move 10+ cents
its kinda weird that you supposedly have 6.7k games databased and have done statistical analysis on them but claim to not be computer savvy. did you do it all by hand?
also fwiw i use me some poisson and its biased toward the unders
i just ran this season alone for english premiere (minus grand salami which is why you'll see skip in game #s) for:
differences of more than 10 cents
if total changed used pinny cent formula ot convert to same total and if more than 10 cents moved included that and got
eng premiere 299/576 ( 51.909722222222 % )
la liga 359/693 ( 51.803751803752 % )
serie a 319/644 ( 49.534161490683 % )
THATS MUCH HIGHER THAN 11%
uefa u 19 womens soccer
10 cent: 76/119 ( 63.865546218487 % )
20 cent: 65/119 ( 54.621848739496 % )
why would anyone trust you with their money when you obviously have horrible data (or are just making up #s to look impressive) which you are using????????????????