the incompetence of team sky is starting to concern me!

sagan is a beast

that is all

cav still doing well with not much of a train {if any} , thought the 6th place he took in the early sprint yesterday was very impressive , another flat stage today and i definetly would not bet against him !!

greipel 4/1 each way today

had chavanel yesterday at 18/1 because a stage win + yellow was a big prize but shame he couldnt hold on.

i got 28:1 for top 3 overall
1. Cadel Evans
2. Vincezno Nibali
3. Bradley Wiggins

Team Sky looked pretty strong yesterday. Froome was better than Wiggins. The stage today was one of the best breakaway finishes ever. Watching Madiot scream at Pinot to get him home ahead of the all-stars chasing him was pretty awesome. The field has whittled down and I'm going to bet now so I have something to root for and with the hope that no one is cheating and thus everyone (meaning Wiggins) is somewhat vulnerable.

The people at the top who are generally given a chance to win (using William Hill):

Bradley Wiggins - 9/10
Cadel Evans - 6/4
Vincenzo Nibali - 14/1
Denis Menchov - 33/1
Haimar Zubeldia - 100/1
Chris Froome - 14/1
Maxime Monfort - 500/1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck - 40/1

Rolland is 4 1/2 minutes back (150/1). FS (100/1) has ridden himself into shape but he's a terrible TT and is more than 3 1/2 minutes down.

So just to bet something, I'm taking Evans to win since he's riding so well. But I'm going to wait for the TT and hope that Wiggins beats him by about a minute tomorrow which will make everyone pile money on Wiggins so Evans' odds will get better. As long as Nibali is there then those two can get a minute back easily on a descent. Nibali and Froome will probably drop even more time tomorrow and so I'll make small bets on them after the time trial unless they have a disastrous day. So the only two bets I'll make now is Van Den Broeck who was the strongest rider in the group chasing Pinot and who lost his time on la Planche des Belles Filles because of a mechanical and then basically rode the same pace as the lead group on a teammate's bike by himself. He was an absolute beast. Since he's a good time trialist his odds will probably get worse after tomorrow. If he takes off on a mountain stage then he can win it. Wiggins can't cover him and Evans and Nibali and will be most likely to let him go of the three of them. Loved that Nibali said he doesn't respect Wiggins. And I'll bet Rolland at the astronomical odds out of solidarity with harrington.

Van Den Broeck - 1/2 unit today
Evans - 3 units probably after time trial
Nibali - 1/2 unit probably after time trial
Froome - 1/2 unit probably after time trial
Rolland - 1/4 unit today

Pray for Wiggins to have a bad day. Please be hot. And ignore the others at the top.

Then bet Frank and Vinokourov for stage wins. Frank on a mountaintop finish (Sanchez being gone helps this). And Vinokourov probably between the Alps and the Pyrenees because at some point he's going to do something crazy, that's just the way he is.

Basically lighting money on fire but it's the TdF so it's worth it.

Madiot was brilliant yesterday! I was in tears of laughter.

Today I play:

Martin 45/1 (poor time but may hold if rain comes)
Evans 40/1ew (1/4 top 3)
Wiggins 2/1ew (1/4 top 3)


I think Bradley makes big time today with that Sky skinsuit on then should cruise the rest of le tour. Bradley's descending won't be a big issue imo.

Yes Froome is amazing and will win a GT soon enough. Yes VDB can feel hard done by.

And Bradley Wiggins wins the Tour de France, gg

Which is what the British public believes is going to happen since his odds are now 1/3. Since he's a British rider on a British team in a mostly British market I have to think the odds are wrong, since he's never won the Tour, they haven't reached the mountains, he's never worn the yellow jersey under attack and he's basically down two teammates. I think he's got a 50% chance of winning but it looks like he's not even the best rider on his own team. He's getting Indurain/Armstrong/Contador odds without doping. I'm assuming he's not doping. If he's doping then the following bets really dumb.

I just wish Evans hadn't lost that much time yesterday.

In 2006, Landis lost eight minutes on the finish to La Toussuire. He was probably microdosing. That night he took a massive injection of testosterone which allowed him to come back. Any rider can have a bad day if he's not doped to the gills. I'm just betting he has a bad day and he's going to get tired because of his insane spring. They'll be at La Toussuire on Thursday.

You got him at 16/1 which is a great bet. I can't bet him at 1/3.

All at William Hill to be consistent but better prices available elsewhere.

Van Den Broeck - 1/2 unit bet + another 1/2 unit (at 80/1)
Evans - 3 units at 4/1
Nibali - 1/2 unit at 16/1
Froome - 1 unit at 7/1 (terrible price at WH you can easily get him at 10/1)
Rolland - 1/4 unit bet

5 3/4 total units bet hoping the dude with the sideburns isn't doping and blows up. It's worth the loss to me if it makes the TdF more interesting. I hope Evans, Nibali and Van den Broeck attack the **** out of him. I hope Van den Broeck is the one who gets away. Good luck.

My thoughts:

- Evans can't attack (and in interview he sounds like a man defeated already)
- These mountains to come aren't hard
- VDB is 5 20 plus a time trial back!
- Froome won't be allowed to win even though on paper he is well capable of winning this from here. It would have been a real head scratcher if he hadn't lost 90 seconds from crashing already. He will win this tour for Wiggins and Wiggo will gift him with a stage win when they arrive 1,2 at some point
- Nibali is the only worry for me but I think Sky are going to keep it postal service perfect up these mountains as Stage 7. Wiggins and Froome look like having loads left and Rogers saved himself in the TT. Sky will pull the lot up there! (I hope).

What stages do you see the attacks coming in? And how do you see it unfolding LemonJuice? I think Nibali might have a go tomorrow but can't see him doing any damage.

Regards,
Tunnel vision Sky fan

I just had a look at the course again and Stage 11 is a brute. If Wiggins survives, I'll be supremely confident. I will be watching this nervously but I hope Sky rested up nicely today.

I don't know. You got your money in good. The bet after the course announcement was the really good one. Getting him at 16-1 when the two time trials so obviously favored him was really smart. I can't bet him at 1-3 which is terrible. So I bet around him.

There has been talk that they're going to work together. And just launch attacks to see if he can answer. So stages 11, 16 and 17.

Evans hasn't given up. He says Wiggins is untested. Here's Wiggins:

"This is my fourth Tour de France going for GC (general classification)," Wiggins said on the eve of the first big mountain stage of the race. "Each year's got a bit better. We've worked on those areas where I was a bit weak. But I'm only human. Who knows what lies in store next week?"

Here's Nibali:

"We need conviction and to try to separate Wiggins and Froome from their teammates then attack them one on one."

At the least it's all on him and Sky. No one's helping at the front any more.

Looking forward to it.

I just took £2 on VDB at 600/1 just in case

VdB and Nibali together. Froome blown up. Go go.

Pfft.

I lost a load today laying Rolland expecting Nibali to attack down the descent and the bunch to chase down but alas they ****ed their only chance.

Wiggins 1.27 looks great value now.