Total Points
Foligno -150 over Frolik (CGY)
Eberle -130 over Bourque (COL)
Voracek +125 over Johnson (TBA)
Simmonds +115 over Filppula (TBA)
Crosby -125 over Nash (NYR)
Matthews +100 over Zajac (NJ)
Hanzal -115 over Eriksson (VAN)
Wheeler +115 over E. Staal (MIN)
Scheifele +100 over Coyle (MIN)
Laine -135 over Pominville (MIN)

Total Goals

Brouwer +125 over Hartnell (CBJ)
Simmonds +115 over Killorn (TBA)
Crosby -115 over Nash (NYR)
Matthews -125 over Zajac (NJ)
Scheifele -105 over E. Staal (MIN)
Wheeler -110 over Pominville (MIN)

Goal/No Goal
Nash NO -220

Risking 20.3u

what part of maine? maine in november isn't exactly what comes to mind when i think vacation

+4.8 UNITS

-5.45 units total

Daily: 5-6-6, -2.1u
YTD: 51-39-63, +3.70u, 202.9u risked, +1.8% ROI

Final results.

TomG: +3.7u
Poogs: -5.45u
Differential: 9.15u

At $20 per unit = $183 owed.

Good way to close this out. I'm happy to resign at this point. I'm disappointed with my results and want to see if I can make some changes. We'll settle up and then we can decide if we want to do this again in a month or whenever.

PM me how you wanna get paid.

I think Id be open to doing this again in a month or so, if for other reason than to get myself out of the red.

$915 for me, not even a nice bottle of wine smh. Strong rally Poogsy, my handlers will be in touch.

No bitcoin bull****

For the record, Poogs settled all balances in a timely manner.

Any interest in Round 2? I burnt my old model (the one I was using for this) to the ground and rebuilt it pretty much from scratch. It should be much better now and I am eager to test it out. We can bump up the stakes if that makes the difference between your having interest versus declining.

TomG still cold blooded after all these years, damn...

Im slightly interested but Id need odds

I like your style, always looking for an additional angle or edge. I'd be willing to offer you an edge in the spirit of good sportsmanship and as a courtesy toward our new friendship. But nothing crazy, something like after the final units won/lost tally, if you were ahead I'd pay you at the original $20/unit, if I were ahead you'd settle at a 10% discount of $18/unit.

Love all the tiny little barbs you lob at me.... I would need a much better deal than that to play again. I think its fairly obvious youre a big favorite here. My counter is same bet and structure as last time but every unit I win is worth 1.1. Losses are the same.

This is open to anyone btw. If someone else wants to take me up on these terms, Id do the bet with tom at toms 10% deal and have side action with the 1.1 thing.

I can't even.

good

Why do you think he is a big favorite?

What kind of roi do you have betting these?

Sorry I didn't mean to come across as disrespectful. I'm not trying to be throw barbs at you. That would be counterproductive. I sincerely enjoy this and since it doesn't look like anyone else wants to play along it's either TomG vs Poogs or nothing.

Unfortunately I can't agree to those terms. I mean, you could simply duplicate my plays and arbitrage me against myself. Even overlap to the degree we saw previously would put me at a significant disadvantage.

So I'll tell you what. I'll counter with two suggestions. You can take either one or we can forget about this altogether.

1) We can do it your way; I'll just rack it up as a cost of entertainment and give you $1.1 to my $1 per unit. But the unit size is just $1. It's just a fun, friendly game. I can assure you I would take it as seriously for $1 as I would for $10 or $100 per unit.

2) We again agree to you 1.1-to-1.0 terms, but under a new condition. To prevent you from simply arbitraging me, I go first every day and you cannot duplicate any of my plays. I get the pick of the litter, you get odds.

After some more thought, I'm sorry I spoke too soon. I think I'll have to pass if that is your final offer. Getting a 10% win bonus combined with a 10% loss rebate for each wager means you are effectively +EV betting these things blind (at -115/-115 odds you win $110 for each $115 risked except you aren't even risking $115 with a loss rebate). I just don't see the point of it as a competition. It would be more of a competition to just post my plays to the NHL betting thread and see if I can beat the bookie. If you change your mind at some point and want an actual competition, please bump this thread.

It wasnt my final offer, just a counter. Lemme think about it a little bit.

Poogs cannot be defeated

I wonder if this was Poogs long con all along.

Challenge someone as a huge dog, negotiate a new deal versus someone who won't bother to model the potential outcomes for 10x the stakes and cleanup?

Hard to know.

Didn't read thread. But seems inline with past performance lol

I always felt like the matchups were never that great on these would be pretty impressed with 10% ROI as I always pretty much agreed with them except for rare cases where guys were moved in and out of the power play etc.