Quote:
Originally Posted by mavsfan4ever
Just use your own example
I realize I should have used a more specific example. The one I used, as you correctly pointed out, is a failure.
Also, it depends on individual circumstances (& odds) but it's not always viable to bet the spread in those opening rounds. For example, a team like a 4 seed will be favored in their first and likely second game so depending on their future odds, i may need to risk their game in hopes the favorite wins a game or two.
By no means am I calling this a guarantee and it's also a selective process to picking teams. For example, in 2015, the four 4 seeds had odds to win of: 40-1, 66-1, 66-1 & 100-1. The 100-1 of course lends itself best to my plan. In 2016 though the four 4 seeds odds were: 10, 20, 28 & 40-1 meaning none would be viable options.
The 3 seeds historically are interesting as their highest numbered odds over the last 3 years has been 45-1 in 2014, 50-1 in 2015 and 40-1 in 2016. Assuming they win their first two games, a hedge at -200 for next 4 rounds returns a profit. Of course if they lose in the opening 2 games that's a loser but it's a single unit loser rather than the moneyline loss by betting a favorite.
The -200 is of course the arbitrary number but I did look back at past odds of seeds and -200 isn't all that far off over the average. I'm overestimating the -200 for most 3v2 matchups, but it's not a number far off from what we've seen.
I very much thank you for your post and do hope you'll reply again.